{ "lastUpdate": "2026-10-15", "fetchedAt": "2026-10-15T22:32:34.514Z", "eleicao": { "pais": "US", "data": "2026-11-03", "cargo": "US House generic ballot" }, "procedencia": { "indice": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_elections", "fonteDaTabela": { "modo": "transclusao", "pagina": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2026_United_States_elections/polling", "transcluidaEm": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_elections", "notadoEm": "2026-09-25" }, "licencaIndice": "CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikipédia)", "regra": "A Wikipédia é usada como ÍNDICE de quais pesquisas existem e quem publicou. Os números são atribuídos ao instituto e cada linha traz o link da fonte primária. O AFOS não redistribui tabela de terceiro.", "agregadoresIgnorados": [ "Decision Desk HQ", "FiftyPlusOne", "RealClearPolitics", "Silver Bulletin", "VoteHub" ], "motivoIgnorar": "são modelos de terceiros; o AFOS calcula a própria média simples e não republica modelo alheio", "rodadasCuradas": { "quantas": 13, "regra": "Rodada que o instituto publicou e o índice não recebeu entra lida na CROSSTAB do próprio instituto, com o link dela, e vem etiquetada com origem \"listagem-do-instituto\". É exceção declarada, não caminho normal: o índice continua sendo a via padrão e sempre vence a duplicata.", "institutos": [ "BGSU/YouGov", "Quantus Insights (R)", "Reuters/Ipsos", "The Economist/YouGov", "The Honest Poll" ], "decididoEm": { "The Economist/YouGov": "2026-09-04", "Quantus Insights (R)": "2026-09-10" } } }, "ressalvas": [ "Não existe registro público obrigatório de pesquisa nos EUA, ao contrário do TSE no Brasil.", "A ponta da Wikipédia pode atrasar alguns dias em relação ao que os institutos já publicaram.", "Pesquisa americana é proprietária: exibida com atribuição e link, nunca redistribuída." ], "mediaAfos": { "janelaDias": 30, "desde": "2026-09-15", "nPesquisas": 41, "tratamentoDoIndeciso": [ { "serie": "Angus Reid Global", "campoFim": "2026-09-25", "escolha": "With leaners", "declarado": { "dem": 45, "rep": 34 }, "estado": "ESCOLHIDA", "quantasCasam": 1, "linhasDaOnda": [ { "dem": 56, "rep": 40, "outros": 4, "amostra": 919, "amostraTipo": "RV", "escolhida": false }, { "dem": 49, "rep": 35, "outros": 16, "amostra": 1041, "amostraTipo": "RV", "escolhida": false }, { "dem": 45, "rep": 34, "outros": 21, "amostra": 1205, "amostraTipo": "A", "escolhida": true } ], "prova": "https://angusreid.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026.09.28_Trump_Midterms.pdf", "conferidoEm": "2026-10-05", "decididoEm": "2026-10-05" }, { "serie": "The Argument/Verasight", "campoFim": "2026-09-22", "escolha": "LV, duas vias normalizada", "declarado": { "dem": 55, "rep": 45 }, "estado": "ESCOLHIDA", "quantasCasam": 1, "linhasDaOnda": [ { "dem": 55, "rep": 45, "outros": null, "amostra": null, "amostraTipo": "LV", "escolhida": true }, { "dem": 50, "rep": 41, "outros": 9, "amostra": null, "amostraTipo": "LV", "escolhida": false }, { "dem": 53, "rep": 47, "outros": null, "amostra": 1603, "amostraTipo": "RV", "escolhida": false }, { "dem": 48, "rep": 41, "outros": 11, "amostra": 1603, "amostraTipo": "RV", "escolhida": false } ], "prova": "https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam", "conferidoEm": "2026-10-07", "decididoEm": "2026-10-07" } ], "incluidas": [ { "key": "ActiVote|2026-10-14", "instituto": "ActiVote", "campoFim": "2026-10-14", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 47 }, { "key": "RMG Research|2026-10-14", "instituto": "RMG Research", "campoFim": "2026-10-14", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)|2026-10-12", "instituto": "Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)", "campoFim": "2026-10-12", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 54, "rep": 45 }, { "key": "Morning Consult|2026-10-11", "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoFim": "2026-10-11", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Cygnal (R)|2026-10-10", "instituto": "Cygnal (R)", "campoFim": "2026-10-10", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "TrueDot|2026-10-09", "instituto": "TrueDot", "campoFim": "2026-10-09", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "Focaldata|2026-10-05", "instituto": "Focaldata", "campoFim": "2026-10-05", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 44 }, { "key": "Reuters/Ipsos|2026-10-05", "instituto": "Reuters/Ipsos", "campoFim": "2026-10-05", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 44, "rep": 37 }, { "key": "Morning Consult|2026-10-04", "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoFim": "2026-10-04", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "ActiVote|2026-10-02", "instituto": "ActiVote", "campoFim": "2026-10-02", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 48 }, { "key": "CBS News/YouGov|2026-10-02", "instituto": "CBS News/YouGov", "campoFim": "2026-10-02", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 45 }, { "key": "Cygnal (R)|2026-10-02", "instituto": "Cygnal (R)", "campoFim": "2026-10-02", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Centerline Research & Strategy|2026-10-01", "instituto": "Centerline Research & Strategy", "campoFim": "2026-10-01", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "Rasmussen Reports (R)|2026-09-30", "instituto": "Rasmussen Reports (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-30", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44 }, { "key": "AlphaROC|2026-09-28", "instituto": "AlphaROC", "campoFim": "2026-09-28", "amostraTipo": "A", "dem": 43, "rep": 37 }, { "key": "Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX|2026-09-28", "instituto": "Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX", "campoFim": "2026-09-28", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 49 }, { "key": "Morning Consult|2026-09-27", "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoFim": "2026-09-27", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Quinnipiac University|2026-09-27", "instituto": "Quinnipiac University", "campoFim": "2026-09-27", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 39 }, { "key": "Angus Reid Global|2026-09-25", "instituto": "Angus Reid Global", "campoFim": "2026-09-25", "amostraTipo": "A", "dem": 45, "rep": 34 }, { "key": "Rasmussen Reports (R)|2026-09-23", "instituto": "Rasmussen Reports (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-23", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Emerson College|2026-09-22", "instituto": "Emerson College", "campoFim": "2026-09-22", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "McLaughlin & Associates (R)|2026-09-22", "instituto": "McLaughlin & Associates (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-22", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "The Argument/Verasight|2026-09-22", "instituto": "The Argument/Verasight", "campoFim": "2026-09-22", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 55, "rep": 45 }, { "key": "ActiVote|2026-09-21", "instituto": "ActiVote", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 47 }, { "key": "Echelon Insights|2026-09-21", "instituto": "Echelon Insights", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Impact Research (D)/National Research Inc. (R)|2026-09-21", "instituto": "Impact Research (D)/National Research Inc. (R)", "institutoNoIndice": "Impact Research (D)/ National Research Inc. (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "KFF|2026-09-21", "instituto": "KFF", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 45, "rep": 35 }, { "key": "Strength In Numbers/Verasight|2026-09-21", "instituto": "Strength In Numbers/Verasight", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "Morning Consult|2026-09-20", "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoFim": "2026-09-20", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Reuters/Ipsos|2026-09-20", "instituto": "Reuters/Ipsos", "campoFim": "2026-09-20", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 43, "rep": 35 }, { "key": "Quantus Insights (R)|2026-09-18", "instituto": "Quantus Insights (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-18", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42 }, { "key": "CNN/SSRS|2026-09-17", "instituto": "CNN/SSRS", "campoFim": "2026-09-17", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 49, "rep": 41 }, { "key": "John Zogby Strategies|2026-09-17", "instituto": "John Zogby Strategies", "campoFim": "2026-09-17", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 40 }, { "key": "Clarity Campaign Labs (D)|2026-09-16", "instituto": "Clarity Campaign Labs (D)", "campoFim": "2026-09-16", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "Rasmussen Reports (R)|2026-09-16", "instituto": "Rasmussen Reports (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-16", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 41 }, { "key": "Big Data Poll|2026-09-15", "instituto": "Big Data Poll", "institutoNoIndice": "Big Data Poll (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 37 }, { "key": "Emerson College|2026-09-15", "instituto": "Emerson College", "institutoNoIndice": "Emerson College/ RealClear Opinion Research", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 37, "rep": 29 }, { "key": "Hart Research Associates (D)/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)|2026-09-15", "instituto": "Hart Research Associates (D)/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45 }, { "key": "Marist University|2026-09-15", "instituto": "Marist University", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 53, "rep": 41 }, { "key": "Morning Consult|2026-09-15", "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43 }, { "key": "RMG Research|2026-09-15", "instituto": "RMG Research", "campoFim": "2026-09-15", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43 } ], "excluidasPorInstrumento": [ { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-10-10", "campoFim": "2026-10-12", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 39, "desde": "2026-09-04", "medidoEm": "2026-09-22", "ressalva": "Asked using the names of candidates running in the respondent’s district of residence", "prova": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_87cqd96.pdf" }, { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-10-02", "campoFim": "2026-10-05", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 40, "desde": "2026-09-04", "medidoEm": "2026-09-22", "ressalva": "Asked using the names of candidates running in the respondent’s district of residence", "prova": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_87cqd96.pdf" }, { "instituto": "Pew Research Center", "campoInicio": "2026-09-28", "campoFim": "2026-10-04", "amostraTipo": "RV", "dem": 44, "rep": 36, "desde": "2026-09-28", "medidoEm": "2026-10-09", "ressalva": "In the October 2026 survey, candidate names were inserted into the response options based on the respondent’s congressional district", "prova": "https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2026/10/PP_2026.10.8_midterms_report.pdf" }, { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-09-25", "campoFim": "2026-09-28", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 38, "desde": "2026-09-04", "medidoEm": "2026-09-22", "ressalva": "Asked using the names of candidates running in the respondent’s district of residence", "prova": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_87cqd96.pdf" }, { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-09-18", "campoFim": "2026-09-21", "amostraTipo": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 38, "desde": "2026-09-04", "medidoEm": "2026-09-22", "ressalva": "Asked using the names of candidates running in the respondent’s district of residence", "prova": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_87cqd96.pdf" } ], "nInstitutos": 29, "dem": 49.41, "rep": 41.83, "vantagemDem": 7.58, "metodo": "média aritmética simples, sem ponderação e sem exclusão de instituto. Quando o mesmo instituto publica mais de um recorte da mesma rodada, entra um só, pela hierarquia provável votante > eleitor registrado > adultos. Quando o índice lista a mesma casa sob dois nomes, o de quem executa e o de quem publica, ou duas grafias, ela conta uma vez, pelo nome de quem executa, por tabela declarada casa a casa. Onda que o instituto publicou com OUTRO instrumento, como cédula com nomes de candidatos, fica de fora e é listada em excluidasPorInstrumento com a prova.", "institutos": [ "ActiVote", "AlphaROC", "Angus Reid Global", "Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)", "Big Data Poll", "CBS News/YouGov", "CNN/SSRS", "Centerline Research & Strategy", "Clarity Campaign Labs (D)", "Cygnal (R)", "Echelon Insights", "Emerson College", "Focaldata", "Hart Research Associates (D)/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)", "Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX", "Impact Research (D)/National Research Inc. (R)", "John Zogby Strategies", "KFF", "Marist University", "McLaughlin & Associates (R)", "Morning Consult", "Quantus Insights (R)", "Quinnipiac University", "RMG Research", "Rasmussen Reports (R)", "Reuters/Ipsos", "Strength In Numbers/Verasight", "The Argument/Verasight", "TrueDot" ] }, "qualidade": { "linhasLidas": 482, "publicadas": 495, "descartadasPorForma": 0, "descartadasPorValor": 0, "descartadas": 0, "motivoDescarte": "linha sem data de campo ou com o instituto ilegível (rowspan fora de sincronia na origem), ou com percentual fora da faixa plausível de 15% a 70% e soma até 100 (coluna deslizada, tipicamente amostra ou margem de erro lidas como intenção de voto)", "semFontePrimaria": 2, "doIndice": 482, "curadas": 13, "curadasDescartadasPorDuplicidade": 17 }, "recortesAlternativos": { "regra": "Quando o instituto publica um segundo recorte que o ÍNDICE não tabulou, o AFOS continua servindo a linha tabulada e NÃO ingere a outra, porque trocar mudaria a procedência do número servido. O recorte alternativo é publicado aqui, com a prova e o link, para quem quiser refazer a conta.", "hierarquia": "LV > RV > A, aplicada ENTRE as linhas que o índice tabula, nunca contra o índice", "quantos": 2, "itens": [ { "instituto": "RMG Research", "campoInicio": "2026-10-13", "campoFim": "2026-10-14", "servido": { "recorte": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "vantagemDem": 8 }, "alternativo": { "recorte": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 43, "vantagemDem": 11 }, "prova": "TÍTULO da citação do índice, não o documento: \"Generic Ballot, Likely Voters: Dem 54, GOP 43\". O host não abre, resolve para 127.0.0.1", "url": "https://napolitannews.org/posts/generic-ballot-likely-voters-dem-54-gop-43", "conferidoEm": "2026-10-15" }, { "instituto": "Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)", "campoInicio": "2026-10-09", "campoFim": "2026-10-12", "servido": { "recorte": "RV", "dem": 54, "rep": 45, "vantagemDem": 9 }, "alternativo": { "recorte": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 46, "vantagemDem": 6 }, "prova": "o artigo diz, sobre os prováveis votantes, aqueles certos de votar: \"52%-46%\" de vantagem democrata, ao lado do resultado principal em eleitores registrados que é 54 x 45", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms", "conferidoEm": "2026-10-15" } ] }, "polls": [ { "instituto": "RMG Research", "campoInicio": "2026-10-13", "campoFim": "2026-10-14", "amostra": 2000, "amostraTipo": "RV", "margemErro": 2.2, "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "outros": 6, "vantagemDem": 8, "fontePrimaria": "https://napolitannews.org/posts/generic-ballot-likely-voters-dem-54-gop-43", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "ActiVote", "campoInicio": "2026-10-04", "campoFim": "2026-10-14", "amostra": 1000, "amostraTipo": "LV", "margemErro": 3.1, "dem": 53, "rep": 47, "outros": null, "vantagemDem": 6, "fontePrimaria": "https://www.activote.net/polls/generic-ballot/2026-10-14/", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-10-10", "campoFim": "2026-10-12", "amostra": 1403, "amostraTipo": "RV", "margemErro": 3.5, "dem": 46, "rep": 39, "outros": 15, "vantagemDem": 7, "fontePrimaria": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_q6HleZL.pdf", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)", "campoInicio": "2026-10-09", "campoFim": "2026-10-12", "amostra": 1202, "amostraTipo": "RV", "margemErro": 2.5, "dem": 54, "rep": 45, "outros": 1, "vantagemDem": 9, "fontePrimaria": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "Morning Consult", "campoInicio": "2026-10-05", "campoFim": "2026-10-11", "amostra": 17654, "amostraTipo": "LV", "margemErro": 1, "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "outros": 7, "vantagemDem": 7, "fontePrimaria": "https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2026/09/MCPI-Midterm-Ballot.html", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "Cygnal (R)", "campoInicio": "2026-10-07", "campoFim": "2026-10-10", "amostra": 1500, "amostraTipo": "LV", "margemErro": 2.5, "dem": 51, "rep": 42, "outros": 7, "vantagemDem": 9, "fontePrimaria": "https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Cygnal-National-Poll-on-Foreign-Conflicts-Oct-2026.pdf", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "TrueDot", "campoInicio": "2026-10-05", "campoFim": "2026-10-09", "amostra": 974, "amostraTipo": "LV", "margemErro": 3.2, "dem": 49, "rep": 42, "outros": 8, "vantagemDem": 7, "fontePrimaria": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6143963-democrats-lead-congressional-ballot-ddhq/", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "Focaldata", "campoInicio": "2026-10-02", "campoFim": "2026-10-05", "amostra": 2201, "amostraTipo": "LV", "margemErro": null, "dem": 52, "rep": 44, "outros": 4, "vantagemDem": 8, "fontePrimaria": "https://www.focaldata.com/blog/democrats-further-extend-generic-ballot-lead-as-midterms-approach", "comLeaners": false, "origem": "indice-wikipedia" }, { "instituto": "The Economist/YouGov", "campoInicio": "2026-10-02", "campoFim": "2026-10-05", "amostra": 995, "amostraTipo": 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