Mexico
MexicoRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential 2024
2024-06-02
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
Claudia Sheinbaum won the 2024 presidential election with about 59.8% of the vote, the largest vote count in Mexican history, and became the country's first woman president. The signal showed early: from January the market already gave Sheinbaum about 90% probability of winning, while polls measured her vote share around 50%. The market treated the race as decided long before election day, and the actual result ran even higher than the polls suggested. The market measures probability of winning, the poll measures vote share; that gap, candidate by candidate in the table, is the signal AFOS tracks, not a polling error.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheinbaum | 50.8% | 90% | +39.2pp |
| Gálvez | 33.3% | 10.9% | -22.4pp |
| Máynez | 10.7% | 0.2% | -10.5pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $2.1MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 2.1M
Latest poll (LaEncuesta.mx, 2024-05-29) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 49 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Mexico's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Mexico's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Mexico directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Mexico is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.