AFOS Analytics

🎯 AFOS Analysis (25/10/2026): Lula stands at 99.85% in the winner contract (cumulative volume USD 42.96M), confirmed reading of 25/Oct, 21:22 BRT, and rises 83.35pp against the confirmed reading of 24/Oct at 20:06 BRT, the last one published for the winner contract. 🗳️ SECOND-ROUND RESULT: in the official TSE partial count of 21:25 BRT on 25/Oct, with 99.86% of polling sections counted, Lula has 51.76% of the valid votes (64,139,700 votes) and Flávio Bolsonaro 48.24% (59,770,812 votes), with turnout of 80.79% of the electorate, and Lula is re-elected to a fourth term (Poder360, Gazeta do Povo and Metrópoles). In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had finished ahead, by 47.03% to 45.16% of the valid votes, and it is the first time in a Brazilian presidential election that the candidate who trailed in the first round wins the second (Gazeta do Povo and Metrópoles). ⚖️ At 17:01 on 25/Oct, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted a request from Lula's coalition and extended voting until 19:00, then clarified that the measure applied only to polling sections that had not yet closed; the TSE's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, instructed the sections still open to operate until 19:00 (Poder360, Estadão and Gazeta do Povo), and the court resumed releasing results after that time (Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo). 📊 On the eve, the last three national polls had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: Veritá, with 15,554 interviews from 19 to 23/Oct, by 49.44% to 46.46% in total votes; Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 interviews, by 48.2% to 47.9% in total votes; and PoderData/Aya, released on 25/Oct, by 51% to 49% in valid votes. At the ballot box, Lula had 51.76% of the valid votes, against 48.44% in Veritá, 49.9% in Futura/100% Cidades and 49% in PoderData/Aya in valid votes. On 22/Oct, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro signed at the TSE a document authorizing the lifting of their bank, tax and phone secrecy, and on 23/Oct the two campaigns delivered the authorizations, without disclosing the data (UOL and O Globo). On 24/Oct, the Electoral Prosecutor General's Office argued for dismissing the case on lifting the secrecy, on the view that it is not for the Electoral Court to decide on the disclosure (Gazeta do Povo, Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão and G1). After the promulgation, Lula said the 6x1 work schedule will return if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election (O Globo and Valor), and on 13/Oct he announced Prospera MEI, with forgiveness of individual microentrepreneurs' debts estimated at R$ 12.6 billion (Poder360 and Estadão). ⚖️ On 20/Oct, the Federal Police asked the Supreme Court for more time in the inquiries into alleged influence peddling by Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, the president's son, and Justice Edson Fachin is to decide (Estadão and G1). ⚖️ On 23/Oct, the TSE's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, made the transport of Indigenous voters by federal agencies in the second round subject to prior approval by the Electoral Court, trip by trip; on 24/Oct, after the Prosecutor General, Paulo Gonet, asked the Supreme Court to suspend that requirement, he reconsidered and simplified the clearance, which no longer depends on reviewing each trip separately (Estadão, O Globo and Agência Brasil). ⛔ The panel does not attribute the price to the polls or to the campaign agenda: it measures the sides with each one's timestamp.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (25/10/2026): Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 0.15% in the winner contract (cumulative volume USD 56.18M), confirmed reading of 25/Oct, 21:22 BRT, and falls 83.60pp against the confirmed reading of 24/Oct at 20:06 BRT, the last one published for the winner contract. 🗳️ SECOND-ROUND RESULT: in the official TSE partial count of 21:25 BRT on 25/Oct, with 99.86% of polling sections counted, Lula has 51.76% of the valid votes (64,139,700 votes) and Flávio Bolsonaro 48.24% (59,770,812 votes), with turnout of 80.79% of the electorate, and Lula is re-elected to a fourth term (Poder360, Gazeta do Povo and Metrópoles). In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had finished ahead, by 47.03% to 45.16% of the valid votes, and it is the first time in a Brazilian presidential election that the candidate who trailed in the first round wins the second (Gazeta do Povo and Metrópoles). ⚖️ At 17:01 on 25/Oct, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted a request from Lula's coalition and extended voting until 19:00, then clarified that the measure applied only to polling sections that had not yet closed; the TSE's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, instructed the sections still open to operate until 19:00 (Poder360, Estadão and Gazeta do Povo), and the court resumed releasing results after that time (Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo). 📊 On the eve, the last three national polls had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: Veritá, with 15,554 interviews from 19 to 23/Oct, by 49.44% to 46.46% in total votes; Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 interviews, by 48.2% to 47.9% in total votes; and PoderData/Aya, released on 25/Oct, by 51% to 49% in valid votes. Before the vote, in the confirmed reading of 24/Oct at 20:06 BRT, the last one published for the winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro was priced at 83.75% and Lula at 16.50%. ⚖️ On 18/Oct, Estadão reported, and Folha de S.Paulo and G1 confirmed, that the Federal Police (PF) took to the Supreme Court an investigation into suspected money laundering involving the lawyer Willer Tomaz, his companies and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Alexandre de Moraes drawn as rapporteur (G1 and Gazeta do Povo). On 23/Oct, Moraes authorized lifting the secrecy of the offshore company Alcazar Holdings, owned by Willer Tomaz, and ordered the freezing of up to R$ 6 billion of the lawyer's assets (Gazeta do Povo, O Globo and Folha de S.Paulo). Flávio Bolsonaro's defense says the relationship between the two is limited to a friendship between the families and calls false the reports that they shared a bank account (Gazeta do Povo). On 20/Oct, a technical note from the Finance Ministry named Willer Tomaz as the country's largest sports-betting gambler in 2025, with R$ 5 billion wagered (Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo). ⚖️ The government leader in Congress, Randolfe Rodrigues, is collecting signatures for a complaint to the Senate Ethics Council that seeks the loss of Flávio Bolsonaro's mandate for breach of decorum, citing his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro; the document has yet to be filed (Folha de S.Paulo and Valor). On 22/Oct, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro signed at the TSE a document authorizing the lifting of their bank, tax and phone secrecy, and on 23/Oct the two campaigns delivered the authorizations, without disclosing the data (UOL and O Globo). On 24/Oct, the Electoral Prosecutor General's Office argued for dismissing the case on lifting the secrecy, on the view that it is not for the Electoral Court to decide on the disclosure (Gazeta do Povo, Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão and G1). 🎙️ The first debate of the second round was on Band, on 18/Oct, and the last, on Globo, on the night of 23/Oct. In Globo's, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro presented proposals and traded accusations (Agência Brasil and BBC), among them over Daniel Vorcaro, Willer Tomaz and public security (O Globo), and the fact-checking agency Lupa flagged 20 statements it considered inadequate and 11 entirely true (Folha de S.Paulo). In Datafolha of 24/Oct, 54% said they watched Globo's debate, in full or in part; 36% thought Lula did better and another 36% that Flávio Bolsonaro did better, and 98% said the debate did not change their vote (Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo). 🤝 Flávio Bolsonaro has the declared support of Podemos, Augusto Cury, Novo, ACM Neto, PP, União Brasil, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Michel Temer and the MDB, which on 13/Oct formalized the support of 17 state branches (Gazeta do Povo and Folha de S.Paulo); 10 MDB branches, from the North and Northeast, declared support for Lula (Estadão, Valor and CartaCapital). PSDB stayed neutral. Lula has the support of UP, PSTU and PCB (CNN Brasil and G1). On 16/Oct, former Fortaleza mayor Roberto Cláudio declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro (G1). Renan Santos said on 15/Oct that he does not back Lula and will not vote (O Globo and Estadão). ⛔ The panel does not attribute the price to the polls, the debate or the inquiries: it measures the sides with each one's timestamp.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (25/10/2026): Augusto Cury finished the first round in third, with 2.89% of the valid votes in the TSE final tally, and is out of the second round. His contract in the winner book was closed by Polymarket after the first round and resolved at zero, with USD 5.51M cumulative. The first round's third-place book, which on the eve paid 23.70% for him, at 23:00 UTC on 03/Oct, was resolved in his favour. 🤝 On 08/Oct he declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round (G1, Estadão and CNN Brasil).

🎯 AFOS Analysis (25/10/2026): Renan Santos finished the first round in fourth, with 2.24% of the valid votes in the TSE final tally, and is out of the second round. His contract in the winner book was closed by Polymarket after the first round and resolved at zero, with USD 17.12M cumulative, the second largest in the presidential book, behind Lula's. On the eve the third-place book paid 47.50% for him, at 23:00 UTC on 03/Oct, and it was resolved in favour of Augusto Cury. 🤝 On the night of 04/Oct he said he backs neither of the two in the second round and freed Missão's activists to choose (Gazeta do Povo and Agência Brasil).

🎯 AFOS Analysis (25/10/2026): 🗳️ Ronaldo Caiado finished the first round in fifth, with 2.18% of the valid votes, and Romeu Zema had 0.27%, in the TSE final tally. Fernando Haddad ran for governor of São Paulo, not for President. The three contracts in the winner book were closed by Polymarket and resolved at zero. 🤝 Romeu Zema declared his vote for Flávio Bolsonaro on the night of 05/Oct (G1 and Folha de S.Paulo), and Novo, his party, declared support on 07/Oct (G1 and CartaCapital). Ronaldo Caiado declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro in Goiânia on 06/Oct (O Globo and VEJA), even with the PSD neutral in the second round (Folha de S.Paulo and Agência Brasil).