⭐ Validated cases
The method against the real result: already-held elections, with cross-referenced market × poll divergence and an open dataset.
The most honest case here: the two markets disagreed. The winner market (electoral college, ~US$3.7bn, the largest election market in history) gave Trump ~56% against a poll near-tie, and was right; the popular-vote market gave Harris ~74% and was wrong (Trump won the popular vote too). AFOS shows the market’s hit and its miss side by side.
The market's months-long favorite (López Aliaga) placed 3rd and missed the runoff: sustained divergence, not noise. The June 7 runoff (Fujimori × Sánchez) ended in a virtual tie (~50.1% × 49.9%), no winner yet proclaimed. Total market volume: ~US$88M.
Jara led the first-round vote, but the market priced Kast at ~66% to win, and Kast won the runoff 58×42. The gap was the signal. Total market volume: ~US$49M.
De la Espriella won the first round (May 31, 43.7%) and the market had already priced him as favorite (43.5%): near-zero divergence between market and result. He faces the June 21 runoff against Cepeda; the outcome is still open. Total market volume: ~US$37M.
The AfD was 2nd in votes (~21%) but the market gave it only ~3% to win the most seats. Vote share is not winning. CDU/CSU won, as the market (~97%) called. Total market volume: ~US$106M.
The market swung ~85% Conservative (Jan) → ~80% Liberal (Apr) with the vote near-tied, and the Liberals won (169×144). The swing was the signal. Total market volume: ~US$12M.
Starmer's Labour won 411 of 650 seats. The market gave it about 99% to win the most seats while polls measured about 40% of the vote: first-past-the-post turned 33.7% of votes into 63% of seats. Reform was third in votes yet took only 5 seats. Total market volume: ~US$1.76M.
Sheinbaum won the 2024 presidency with about 59.8%, the largest vote count in Mexican history. From January the market already gave her about 90% to win, while polls measured her vote share around 50%. The market called the outcome early and the result outran the polls. Total market volume: ~US$2.08M.
Lee Jae-myung won the 2025 snap election, called after the martial-law crisis. The market gave Lee about 95% to win and even nailed the margin (the 8-to-11pp band; the actual margin was 8.27pp), while polls measured his vote share around 49%. One of the largest election markets ever outside the US (~US$290M).
📊 Live: market odds now
Ongoing elections with active Polymarket markets. Odds only, without the polls and divergence layer of the cases above.
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Global Election Calendar
Elections with Polymarket Data
Data: Polymarket | Live volumes and odds
The Global module of AFOS Analytics transforms the world election calendar into real-time intelligence.
The interactive map allows you to visualize, country by country:
- • ongoing elections
- • upcoming elections
- • completed cycles
Creating a global thermometer of political risk and economic opportunity.
Integrated Data Layer
By interacting with the map, you access consolidated data combining:
- • prediction markets (real-money bets)
- • official election calendar
- • political trend analysis
How it works
Each country on the map represents an active or upcoming election event.
Colors indicate the time horizon of elections:
- • light tones (interactive) → short-term elections (up to 12 months)
- • medium tones (interactive) → medium-term elections (1 to 3 years)
- • dark tones (non-interactive) → scheduled elections
- • date not yet defined
Interaction indicates availability of detailed data.
Clicking on a country
The user accesses organized information such as:
- • probability of election scenarios
- • level of market interest
- • related events and elections
Transforming the map into an interactive geopolitical decision interface, not just visualization.
Dynamic Global Calendar
The system tracks elections continuously, on a global scale.
Every year, dozens of countries hold national elections, generating:
- • currency impact
- • market movements
- • geopolitical risk repricing
The result is a continuous flow of events with real economic impact.
Strategic Purpose
The Global module is an infrastructure for systemic reading of the global political environment.
It allows you to:
- • anticipate market movements
- • identify political risk by region
- • monitor election cycles in real time
- • make decisions based on data
- • not narrative
Executive Translation
Politics generates volatility.
Volatility generates asset repricing.
Global organizes this complexity into an interface that allows you to: