Peru
PeruRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential (General) 2026
2026-04-12
Active
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
For months the market made Rafael López Aliaga its favorite to win (40% to 55%), yet he finished third and missed the runoff: the biggest gap of the cycle between what the market priced and the actual vote. Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez advanced to a runoff (June 7) decided by a razor-thin margin and still without a final result. The table below is the final first-round snapshot. Where the market (probability of winning) and the poll (first-round vote) diverge is the signal AFOS tracks, not a polling error.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keiko Fujimori | 16% | 22% | +6pp |
| Ricardo Belmont | 9% | 5.1% | -3.9pp |
| Carlos Álvarez⚠ The 31.6% was a one-day thin-market spike (~Apr 5–6); it fell to ~0% within days. Transient noise, not a sustained signal. | 8% | 31.6%* | +23.6pp* |
| Roberto Sánchez | 7% | 7.7% | +0.7pp |
| Rafael López Aliaga | 7% | 15% | +8pp |
Implied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 87.6M
Latest poll (Ipsos Perú/Perú 21, 2026-04-06) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 36 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Overview
Track Peru's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Peru's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Peru directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Peru is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.