Peru
PeruRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential (General) 2026
2026-04-12
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
In the first round (April 12, with 35 candidates), the market had for months made Rafael López Aliaga the runaway favorite to win (peaking at 40%-55% probability), yet he collapsed down the stretch and finished third, out of the runoff: the biggest gap of the cycle between what money priced and the actual vote. Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular, first with 17.2%) and Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú, 12.0%) advanced. The June 7 runoff produced one of the closest results in Peruvian history: polls showed a dead heat, while the market favored Fujimori. The count ended in a near-tie and Sánchez contested it, seeking to void the overseas vote, appealing observed tally sheets, and even petitioning the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. The JNE rejected every appeal, resolved the observed tally sheets, and on July 3 proclaimed Keiko Fujimori president-elect (2026-2031) with 50.135% to Sánchez's 49.865%, a margin of just over 49,000 votes; she is inaugurated on July 28. The tables below show both divergences: the first round (market = probability of winning × poll = vote) and the runoff (poll × market × result). Where the market and the poll diverge is the signal AFOS tracks, not a polling error.
First-round divergence
2026-04-12 · 36 polls
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keiko Fujimori | 16% | 22% | +6pp |
| Ricardo Belmont | 9% | 5.1% | -3.9pp |
| Carlos Álvarez⚠ The 31.6% was a one-day thin-market spike (~Apr 5-6); it fell to ~0% within days. Transient noise, not a sustained signal. | 8% | 31.6%* | +23.6pp* |
| Roberto Sánchez | 7% | 7.7% | +0.7pp |
| Rafael López Aliaga | 7% | 15% | +8pp |
Runoff divergence
2026-06-07 · 16 polls
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keiko Fujimori | 51.4% | 68.5% | 50.1% |
| Roberto Sánchez | 48.6% | 31.6% | 49.9% |
Poll and result in % of valid votes (Ipsos, May 31, statistical tie); market in win probability. The polls nailed the photo finish (~51 vs 49), while the market, at 68.5% for Fujimori, overstated her cushion: right on direction (Fujimori won), wrong on calibration, the result was a coin-flip (50.1 vs 49.9).
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $106.9MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 107M
Latest poll (Datum Internacional, 2026-06-06) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 52 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Peru's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Peru's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Peru directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Peru is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.