South Korea
South KoreaRegion: Asia-Pacific
Monitored elections
Presidential 2025
2025-06-03
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
Lee Jae-myung won the snap presidential election of 3 June 2025 with 49.42% of the vote, called after Yoon Suk-yeol’s martial-law crisis and his removal by the Constitutional Court. The signal was strong and early: from early April the market already gave Lee about 80% probability of winning, rising to about 95% at the close, while polls measured his vote share around 46-49%. The market treated the race as decided, and it even nailed the margin (the 8-to-11-point band; the actual margin was 8.27pp). It was one of the largest election markets AFOS has tracked outside the US (about US$290 million). The market measures probability of winning, the poll measures vote share; that gap, candidate by candidate in the table, is the signal AFOS tracks. Note: Korean law bars Koreans from betting on Polymarket, so the volume is mostly international.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Jae-myung | 47.1% | 94.7% | +47.6pp |
| Kim Moon-soo | 38.2% | 5.2% | -33pp |
| Lee Jun-seok | 9.8% | 0.2% | -9.6pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $290.7MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 291M
Latest poll (Metavoice / JTBC, 2025-06-03) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 82 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track South Korea's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
South Korea's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in South Korea directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
South Korea is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.