United Kingdom
United KingdomRegion: Europe
Monitored elections
General Election 2024
2024-07-04
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
Keir Starmer's Labour won the 2024 election with 411 of 650 seats. On the eve of the vote the market gave Labour about 99% probability of winning the most seats, while polls measured about 40% vote intention. Not a contradiction: the market prices who wins, the poll measures vote, and Britain's first-past-the-post system turned 33.7% of the vote into 411 seats (63% of the chamber). Reform was third in votes (14.3%) but took only 5 seats. The gap between probability of winning (market) and vote share (poll), party by party in the table, is the signal AFOS tracks, not a polling error.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 41% | 99.3% | +58.3pp |
| Conservative | 23% | 1% | -22pp |
| Reform | 13% | 0.8% | -12.2pp |
| Lib Dems | 11% | 0.4% | -10.6pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $1.8MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 1.8M
Latest poll (Number Cruncher Politics, 2024-07-03) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 293 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track United Kingdom's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
United Kingdom's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in United Kingdom directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
United Kingdom is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.