What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 2, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Lula recovers 1pp on Polymarket (Brazil Presidential Election) and the gap with Flávio narrows to 4.15pp (from 6.05pp yesterday). STF impeach reverses part of the drop (STF impeach): 14% after 13% yesterday. The Vorcaro case escalates politically with a statement from Senator Humberto Mendonça, revelation by Costa Neto about a Flávio/Alcolumbre agreement, and admission by Edinho Silva (PT) about the party's error in not signing the CPI.

1. Prediction market

In Polymarket's presidential race, Lula recovered 1.0pp to 38.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro gave back the cycle peak, retreating 0.90pp to 42.65% (Brazil Presidential Election). The gap between them narrowed to +4.15pp pro-Flávio, from +6.05pp yesterday. It is the first significant narrowing since Flávio crossed the 43% barrier at the May 1 close.

In the 2nd place market, the direction was inverse: Flávio widened to 68.0% (↑2.5pp) while Lula gave back to 19.5% (↓2.0pp) (Second Place). The reading is technical: the market prices that, if Flávio reaches the runoff (high probability), Lula remains the adversary in the second, but with consolidated difference.

In 3rd place, Zema sustained the lead retaken yesterday at 39.0% (↓0.5pp slight) and Renan Santos held 33.5% (Third Place). The reversal of the historic April 30 inversion (Renan overtaking Zema) consolidated in two days. Eduardo Leite jumped to 1.5% (↑0.65pp), entering as a center-right liberal that competes for space with Zema/Renan.

The STF impeach market recovered to 14.0% after collapsing to 13% yesterday with Vorcaro's arrest (STF impeach). The technical reading: part of the drop given back as the Master/Vorcaro scandal escalates politically rather than concluding narratively with the arrest.

In the Senate, massive reorganization: PL widened to 79.5% (↑3.0pp), Novo surged to 7.9% (↑6.05pp second consecutive recovery), PSD to 7.5% (↑4.9pp) and MDB to 4.55% (↑2.25pp). União gave back strongly from 9.25% to 4.6% (↓4.65pp) and PSDB continues falling at 0.9% (↓1.65pp) (Senate Election). In inflation, the 5.00-5.49% band lost extreme concentration (35.75%, ↓7.65pp) and the 7%+ band surged to 8.15% (↑5.4pp) — hyperinflation risk priced for the first time in the cycle (Brazil Inflation 2026).

The day's movements deserve reading by scale. In a single post-holiday Saturday, eight parties in the Senate market registered variation above 2pp simultaneously — a rare pattern outside windows of concrete political events. PL (+3.0pp), Novo (+6.05pp), PSD (+4.9pp) and MDB (+2.25pp) rose; União gave back 4.65pp and PSDB continued falling 1.65pp. In typical weekend volume, the reading is aggressive portfolio repositioning, not reaction to events. The direction is clear: the market consolidates the PL/Novo/PSD coalition at the expense of União Brasil, which had come from 9.25% at May 1's close and lost more than half of its position in a single day.

The 7%+ band in 2026 inflation surged 5.4pp in a single trading day — from 2.75% to 8.15%. It is the first time in the cycle that the market prices hyperinflation risk above 7% with weight close to 1 in 12 scenarios. The 30-day trajectory of the 7%+ band has always been between 1% and 3%; today it closed at 8.15%. Combined with the central 5.00-5.49% band losing 7.65pp of concentration, the picture is of a market reformulating the entire distribution, not marginal consensus adjustment. With no new macroeconomic disclosure on Saturday, the reading is technical: risk pricing ahead of the heavy bloc of national electoral polls scheduled for May 6 (seven polls, ~10,700 respondents).

In an adjacent movement that marks a cycle milestone, Camilo Santana overtook Fernando Haddad in the Polymarket presidential for the first time since both began being priced — Camilo 3.95% (↑0.60pp) × Haddad 3.65% (↑0.30pp) (Brazil Presidential Election). It is a relevant technical reading: a center-left outsider from Ceará passes the official PT name for São Paulo's governorship in the dispute for the progressive presidential space. Traditional polls do not yet capture Camilo at this national level, but the market opened the signal first.

2. What the institutes recorded

CNN Brasil published at 9:28 AM that, according to Real Time Big Data in Pará, "Lula leads all 1st-round scenarios" — a state poll confirming the president's regional strength in a historically PT state. The previous national aggregate from the same institute (published on May 1 with n=2,000 and confidence 0.9, originally planned for May 5) continued echoing: VEJA published at 1:33 AM the analysis "The distance between Lula and Flávio in the polls".

Diário do Centro do Mundo (3:38 PM) released a rejection poll: "Brazilians reject Flávio and Nikolas more than Lula and Bolsonaro". The data partially relieves pressure on the incumbent — despite Lula's high rejection rates, candidates from the new right register higher rejection. G1 (3:00 AM) published a Quaest consolidated covering "11 state governorships", bringing regional dynamics without alteration in the presidential picture.

Next wave: May 4-5 bring publications from SETA, PERCENT and Real Time Big Data national. May 6 concentrates ~10,700 respondents in seven polls (Datatrends n=4,000, Ideia/Canal Meio 1,500, Vox Brasil 1,200, Instituto Franca 1,067, NEOBE 1,008, 100 Cidades 1,200, SETA 1,200). May 7 (current scheduled date for the AFOS public launch) brings J J Coelho with n=1,203.

3. What the press covered

The day's agenda revolved around three blocks: political escalation of the Vorcaro/Master case, electoral articulation of Lula × Flávio in key states, and controversial statements by candidates.

In the Vorcaro/Master case block (ongoing since Daniel Vorcaro's arrest on March 4, 2026 in Operation Compliance Zero, the Federal Police's third phase), the day brought four relevant developments. Metrópoles (3:52 PM) published a statement from Senator Humberto Mendonça stating that "Vorcaro had support from the highest echelons of the Republic". Revista Fórum (2:27 PM) reported that "Costa Neto anticipated an agreement between Flávio Bolsonaro and Alcolumbre to block the Master CPI" — a direct link between right-wing leadership and Senate presidency. Gazeta do Povo (1:14 PM) recorded that "Gleisi accuses Nikolas Ferreira of using Vorcaro's jet" — left counter-attacks the right on the financial aspect. And O Antagonista (10:52 AM) published self-criticism from Edinho Silva, PT president: "PT should have signed the Banco Master CPI".

In the electoral dynamics block, Gazeta do Povo (7:22 PM) published an analysis titled "Flávio advances and the Northeast is no longer guaranteed territory for Lula", and Estadão (11:00 PM) recorded that "Flávio Bolsonaro was the architect and great beneficiary of Lula's two defeats". On the government side, CNN Brasil (10:09 AM) recorded Lula "confident: I'll win Minas Gerais", and Gazeta do Povo (7:00 PM) published that "Lula studies alliance with Brizola's granddaughter in Rio Grande do Sul". CartaCapital (5:26 PM) reported "PT abandons PSD MA alliance, fields its own candidate". Campo Grande News (1:17 PM) recorded that "PL formalizes Riedel as candidate".

In the controversial statements and developments block, Estadão (8:50 PM) published "Zema says child will be allowed to work if elected", complemented by Blog do Esmael (11:54 PM) with "Zema places child on the election counter". Blog do Esmael (9:10 PM) also recorded that "Flávio Bolsonaro embraces total amnesty at Papudinha". Gazeta do Povo (10:43 PM) published that "Flávio asks for unity of the right after tension between Eduardo and Nikolas". And Revista Fórum (9:42 PM) recorded that "Tarcísio and Flávio were reported to the Attorney General for electoral crimes". Estadão (8:00 PM) published that "Haddad plans economic debates with Tarcísio focusing on São Paulo inflation". The repercussion of Haddad's May 1 statement ("collective brainwashing explains tie") remained dominant on the second day, with stories from O Globo (11:36 AM) and Revista Oeste (10:42 AM).

4. Day's divergences

Market × Vorcaro narrative. The case escalated politically during the day (Mendonça speaking of high echelons, Costa Neto on Flávio/Alcolumbre agreement, PT self-criticism), but STF impeach only recovered 1pp to 14%, without returning to the recent 16% peak. The market seems to distinguish political escalation (which benefits anti-establishment narrative) from concrete institutional risk (without new judicial decision).

Poll × Polymarket. Lula recovered 1pp on Polymarket (38.50%) and Real Time Big Data in Pará confirmed regional leadership (CNN Brasil). But the 2nd place market made Flávio widen to 68% and Lula give back to 19.5%. The reading: consolidated national poll tie (yesterday) + state poll (today, PA) reinforce Lula competitive in 1st round, but the market prices Flávio as runoff favorite.

Camilo presidential × Haddad. Camilo Santana surged to 3.95% (↑0.60pp) and overtook Haddad (3.65%, ↑0.30pp) in the Polymarket presidential — first time in the recent cycle. Indicates fragmentation of the left-wing outsider space. Traditional polls have not yet captured Camilo as a national alternative, but the market prices.

In summary

Lula recovers 1pp and gap narrows to 4.15pp, after five days of consistent widening. Flávio retains the lead at 42.65% but gives back yesterday's "new cycle peak".
The Vorcaro case escalates politically rather than concluding with the arrest, and the market responds with STF impeach recovering 1pp to 14% — without returning to the previous peak, but without repeating yesterday's drop to 13%.
Senate in massive reorganization: PL widens to 79.5%, Novo surges to 7.9% (second recovery), PSD and MDB rise strongly, União gives back. Inflation 7%+ band surges to 8.15% — hyperinflation risk priced for the first time in the cycle.