AFOS Analytics

🎯 AFOS Analysis (15/09/2026): The two national polls of Sep 15 agree in putting him ahead in both rounds and disagree on by how much, and it is that disagreement the round measures. Indexa/Broadcast, by telephone, gives 4 points in the first round and 1 point in the runoff; CNT/MDA, in person, gives 10.1 and 7.3 points. Both declare the same margin of 2.2 and measured practically the same days, so the difference of 6.3 points in the runoff pair is between instruments, not between periods. In the market the day's move is his: the winner contract rises 1.00pp, to 46.50% (vol USD 11.11M accumulated), and the gap to Flávio Bolsonaro narrows 1.00pp after widening for two days, with his opponent ending at the same price as the previous day. The direction of the market and the direction of the two polls coincide today, which was not the case on Sep 14. The panel does not claim the market reacted to the polls: both measurements are from the same day and the order between them is not measured.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (15/09/2026): The round is one of a flat price in the winner contract and of a deficit in both of the day's polls. He ends at the same 51.95% as the previous day (vol USD 10.73M accumulated) and remains the favourite, but the gap to Lula narrows 1.00pp because the other side rose, not because he fell. There was movement within the day: he slipped in mid-afternoon and recovered 0.30pp by the close of the reading. In the polls the reading depends on the house: Indexa/Broadcast puts him 1 point away in the runoff, inside the margin, and CNT/MDA 7.3 points away, outside it. The difference between the two is larger than the margin of each one, and the panel records both without choosing. In the first-round runner-up contract the two sides moved in opposite directions, he rising 1.00pp and his opponent giving up 1.90pp, which is movement in the race and not spread in the book.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (15/09/2026): The round measures stability in the polls and almost nothing in the market. The two national polls of Sep 15 put him at 6% in the first round, and the divergence between them shows up in the runoff pair: 2 points of deficit in Indexa/Broadcast, inside two margins, and 6.9 in CNT/MDA, outside them. In the winner contract he rises 0.10pp, to 0.45%, a small move in absolute terms that takes him off the series floor. In the first-round third-place contract, which is where he has a relevant price, this round publishes no new figure, because there was no new reading of it on Sep 15: the 45.40% (vol USD 197 thousand accumulated) is from Sep 14, and the panel says so instead of serving yesterday's price as if it were today's.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (15/09/2026): The round measures a small fall in the market and a wide deficit in the polls. In the winner contract he gives up 0.05pp, to 1.65% (vol USD 13.49M accumulated), and sits 0.45pp from the series floor, which is 1.20% on Aug 31. In the two national polls of Sep 15 he sits between 2.7% and 3% in the first round and loses both runoff pairs to Lula by more than ten points, outside two margins in both houses. The contrast the panel records is between volume and price: his contract accumulates more money than those of the top two and pays 1.65%. High volume measures interest accumulated since the book opened, not probability now.

🎯 AFOS Analysis (15/09/2026): The round does not move the three of them in the winner contract: Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema stay at 0.15% and Fernando Haddad at 0.05%, the same values as the confirmed reading of Sep 14. In the polls, Ronaldo Caiado appears between 3% and 4% in the first round and Romeu Zema at 1% in both houses, and the divergence between the day's two national polls repeats in their pairs: Indexa/Broadcast puts Caiado 4 points from Lula, inside two margins, and CNT/MDA 9.1 points, outside them. In the first-round third-place contract, where Ronaldo Caiado had the strongest move on the panel on Sep 14, this round publishes no new price, because there was no new reading of it today.