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AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

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Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

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AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

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Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 15, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket at 11h BRT on May 15, Lula widens to 44.50% (↑1.50pp vs May 14 close) and Flávio Bolsonaro continues declining to 28.85% (↓4.15pp in 18h). The gap between the two rises from +10.00pp Lula at May 14 close to +15.65pp Lula on May 15 morning — acceleration of the differential that reverses Flávio's partial recovery observed in the morning of the previous day. Cumulative 24h post-Henrique Vorcaro arrest: Flávio yields 4.50pp additional.

The third way has bifurcated direction. Renan Santos (Missão/MBL) rises to 9.45% (↑2.45pp) and surpasses Zema by a comfortable margin in the presidential race. Romeu Zema (Novo) declines to 6.60% (↓2.40pp) — returns part of the partial recovery registered at May 14 close (9.00%). Caiado (PSD) rises slightly to 1.55% (↑0.20pp). Michelle Bolsonaro rises slightly to 2.85% (↑0.85pp) — substitution narrative maintains positive vector, but at a slower pace than the May 14 spike. Haddad stable at 2.35% (↓0.10pp).

In the 2º turno market, Flávio declines to 58.50% (↓6.50pp vs 65.00%) — the market reduces the probability of Flávio even as 2nd place. Lula stable at 15.50%. Renan rises to 6.30% and Zema doubles to 6.20% (↑3.20pp) — Renan and Zema are tied in this market for the first time in the series.

The 3rd place market reorganizes: Zema maintains top with 39.50%, Renan stable at 32.00% and Caiado recovers to 18.00% (↑5.00pp vs 13.00%) — Caiado returns to competing for 2nd position in the 3rd place market. Michelle appears 4th with 6.20%.

The STF justice impeachment market spikes to 12.75% (↑4.75pp vs 8.00%), accumulating 8.25pp of gains in 24 hours from the reversal begun at May 14 close. Without clear exogenous triggering event today (no new STF ruling nor amnesty PEC on the agenda), the reading is the market repricing the institutional trajectory. In the Senate, PL recovers 78.00% (↑5.00pp vs 73.00%) — the spread fell to Republicanos, which resurfaces in the market at 11.65% (vs 1.05% on May 14 morning). União Brasil at 4.90%, PSD at 4.20%, PT at 2.95%. On 2026 inflation, the 5.00-5.49% range rises to 25.85% (↑1.70pp) and the 7.00%+ recedes to 10.65%.

2. What the polling institutes registered

The most awaited survey of the day is the Datafolha national survey registered with the TSE for release May 15, with sample of 2.004 in-person interviews between May 12-14 (TSE registration BR-00290/2026, cost R$ 307.641,60). As of the time of this synthesis (11h BRT), Datafolha has not yet been disclosed. It will be the first fieldwork survey already encompassing the complete window of the Flávio-Vorcaro audio when published.

The current national reference continues to be the Quaest released on May 13 (n=2.004, fieldwork May 8-11, TSE registration) with Lula 39% × Flávio 33% in the 1º turno (Lula gap +6pp) and Lula reassuming numerical advantage in the 2º turno according to JOTA. Two other references arrive on the same day in different directions. Vox Brasil, with interviews concluded before the Vorcaro case according to Bahia Notícias, shows Flávio ahead in the 2º turno with 43.8% × 40.2% of Lula (coverage Poder360, Revista Oeste, GP1). Meanwhile, the AtlasIntel tracking, released by Exame and VEJA, indicates Lula 7 points ahead of Flávio in the 2º turno after the audio revelation (additional coverage by BPMoney).

Next releases registered with the TSE: Datafolha pending for today May 15; Veritá on May 16 (n=3.330, fieldwork May 11-15); QUALITTA and PARLA MENTORS on May 16; ECM on May 17; AtlasIntel ×2 on May 19 (n=1.200 + n=5.000)](https://eleitor.tse.jus.br/sip/sip-pesquisas); Real Time Big Data and Vox Brasil on May 20; and VETOR ARROW on May 20 with sample n=9.000 — the largest in the window. State-level: Poder360 reports on May 15 that Lula appears ahead of Flávio in the 1º turno and 2º turno in Maranhão.## 3. What the press covered

The dynamics of political coordination around Flávio's candidacy occupy the central axis of coverage. Folha de S.Paulo reports that "Centrão reconsiders alliance with Flávio Bolsonaro after audio recordings showing proximity to Vorcaro" and that "Bolsonarists see Tarcísio distant and want greater support for Flávio". G1 covers that "Tebet sees Flávio's candidacy unsustainable after audio recordings". Folha itself registers that "Flávio Bolsonaro bets on Master CPI against wear and tear, but allies see minimal chances" and that Flávio declared: "I don't have to justify anything to anyone" about conversations with Vorcaro. Brasil de Fato headlines with the thesis that "If he remains a candidate, he will be destroyed by October" and questions whether it is time for Flávio to withdraw.

The BBC's interpretive reading of the audio's effects is the day's analytical highlight: "Flávio Bolsonaro recording with Vorcaro boosts Caiado and Zema, but does not benefit Lula: 'Voter looked to the side'" — a reading that partially reconciles Datafolha stability in the 1º turno with Polymarket movement. The BBC also brought the thesis from British magazine The Economist that "Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy is threatened by 'bombastic' leak" and did a retrospective of "What Flávio Bolsonaro said about Banco Master and Daniel Vorcaro in recent months".

In Lula's response, Folha covers that "Lula mocks Flávio Bolsonaro and says 'there is no Vorcaro money here'" and that the president declared that "Flávio Bolsonaro's link with Vorcaro is a police matter". In institutional regulation, O Globo reports that TSE has already prohibited exhibition of a film about Bolsonaro during elections — material that resurfaces in the context of the Dark Horse case. The BBC explains "Why budget for film about Bolsonaro is considered disproportionate". Sergio Moro (Pleno.News) defends Flávio Bolsonaro and fires criticism at PT.

In pre-candidate movement, Brasil de Fato reports that "Ciro Gomes will launch pre-candidacy this Saturday (16) amid crisis involving Flávio Bolsonaro" — with support described as coming from Bolsonarists. And on operational agenda: collective campaign financing begins today, Friday May 15 (Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil, SBT News, Rádio Itatiaia, Conexão Tocantins, Montanhas Capixabas). O TEMPO upholds the complementary thesis: "Trump effect in 2026 election boosts voting intention for Lula and pressures Flávio Bolsonaro". Gazeta do Povo lists the surveys that will measure post-audio electoral impact.## 4. Daily divergences

Market × Quaest May 13: Polymarket prices a gap of +15.65pp Lula in the 1º turno on May 15, while Quaest published on May 13 (n=2.004, field May 8-11) registers a gap of +6pp Lula (Lula 39 × Flávio 33). Difference of 9.65pp between market and poll — market priced in Flávio's sustained erosion that the poll did not capture in the May 8-11 window. Both readings can coexist: poll captures stimulated intent in the specific window, market prices the probability of arrival at the election in October (Flávio under pressure from Centrão and Tebet questioning viability). The Datafolha registered with TSE for May 15 (field May 12-14) may close part of this gap when released, as it captures additional days post-audio.

Poll × poll (May 15): Vox Brasil May 15 (field prior to the Vorcaro case according to Bahia Notícias) has Flávio 43.8 × Lula 40.2 in the runoff (Flávio ahead). AtlasIntel tracking May 15 (coverage Exame and VEJA) indicates Lula 7pp ahead in the runoff post-audios. The difference is explained by the field period — Vox does not capture the Vorcaro effect; AtlasIntel tracking, big-data online methodology, captured the digital effect more quickly. Datafolha, when published, will be the national in-person reference covering the full window.

STF impeach × institutional event: the market for impeachment of an STF justice went from 4.50% on May 14 at 09h to 8.00% at Friday's close and spikes to 12.75% on May 15 at 11h — a rise of 8.25pp in 24 hours. There is no new institutional event today justifying the spike (no new STF ruling, no new amnesty PEC on the agenda). The observational reading: market may be repricing the secondary effect of Vorcaro+Centrão revisiting Flávio (which sustained the impeach market decline via politics in May) or it may be noise from low liquidity. The next Datafolha (pending for today) and AtlasIntel tracking will measure whether the sustenance is structural.

In summary

The national Datafolha (n=2.004, field May 12-14) is registered with TSE for release on May 15 but has not yet been released as of the time of this synthesis. It will be the first full-field poll already post-Flávio-Vorcaro audio when released. The current national reference remains Quaest May 13 (n=2.004): Lula 39 × Flávio 33 in the 1º turno (gap +6pp Lula).
Polymarket priced in Flávio's erosion in greater magnitude than Quaest May 13 registers. Lula expands to 44.50% (↑1.50pp), Flávio yields to 28.85% (↓4.15pp), gap reaches +15.65pp Lula (vs +10pp at May 14's close and +6pp in Quaest May 13). STF impeach spikes to 12.75% (↑4.75pp in 18h, ↑8.25pp in 24h) with no triggering institutional event. The market reads a trajectory of sustained pressure that has not yet materialized in declared intent.
Political articulation intensifies with Centrão rethinking alliance (Folha), Tebet (G1) and The Economist (BBC) questioning candidacy viability, BBC arguing that "voters looked to the side" to Caiado and Zema without benefiting Lula, Lula ironizing "there's no Vorcaro money here" (Folha), TSE resuming prohibition on displaying film about Bolsonaro during elections (O Globo), Ciro Gomes launching pre-candidacy on Saturday (Brasil de Fato) and crowdfunding starting today (Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil). Next polls: Datafolha pending for today (n=2.004), Veritá on May 16 (n=3.330), AtlasIntel ×2 on May 19 (n=1.200+5.000) and VETOR ARROW on May 20 (n=9.000).—

Consulted sources — articles with direct links to news:

Method. Polymarket crossover (live prices via gamma API — Brazil presidential, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach, Senate, inflation 2026), election surveys registered with TSE (Quaest May 13 published; Datafolha BR-00290/2026 registered for May 15 awaiting release; AtlasIntel tracking; Vox Brasil) and journalistic coverage of the day. Variations in pp compared with the snapshot from May 14 17:30 BRT (close), except where another reference is noted. Each factual claim appears with an inline link to the primary source or plain-text attribution to the outlet. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.