AFOS Analytics

Three measurements side by side, never added together. Two prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi), voting-intention polls checked against the official notice filed with the Commission des sondages, and French press coverage. The first round is on April 18 and the runoff on May 2, 2027.

On 11/08/2026, the two markets and the polls measure different things about Marine Le Pen. In the win contract, Polymarket pays 45.55 and Kalshi 47.00. In polls with fieldwork up to 10/22, she is first in all 60 first-round lists of the past 45 days, from 8 pollsters, at 31% to 38%, and ahead in all 28 runoff matchups in which she was tested, at 52% to 70%. Her appeal to the Cour de cassation against her ineligibility is due to be ruled on by early April 2027.

The market puts David Lisnard second; the polls do not. In the win contract, Lisnard is second in both books, at 14.85 on Polymarket and 15.00 on Kalshi. In the polls, his average is 7.0 across 12 lists from 7 pollsters over the past 30 days, and he was not in the top two in any of the 13 lists of the past 45 days in which he appears.

Behind Le Pen, the order in the polls is not the order in the market. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second in the poll average, at 16.5 across 38 lists, and in the top two in 47 of the 60 lists of the past 45 days; in the 10 runoff matchups in which he was tested, he trails in all of them, at 30% to 34%. In the win contract, he is third in both books, at 13.50 on Polymarket and 14.00 on Kalshi. Raphaël Glucksmann and Édouard Philippe have the same average over the past 30 days, 13.9, across 36 and 27 lists; in the lists of the past 45 days in which they appear, Philippe is in the top two in 10 of 42, and Glucksmann in 3 of 48. In the win contract, Philippe stands at 9.50 on Polymarket and 8.70 on Kalshi, and Glucksmann at 2.45 and 4.00.

In the press of 11/08, three of the ten headlines collected deal with a primary of the right and the centre. Le Figaro reports that Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal disagree over the primary; Le Parisien quotes the head of Renaissance insisting on a primary before the presidential election; L'Opinion says Philippe is speeding up under its pressure. The same day, Ouest-France reports that Raphaël Glucksmann rejects Emmanuel Macron's idea of a coalition reaching as far as Lisnard.

What this screen does not do. It does not add or average the two markets, it does not turn a price into a voting intention, and it does not show a poll number without its checked official notice. On the Saturday and Sunday of each round, polls and prices are frozen, as French law of 1977 requires.