Canada
CanadaRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Federal Election 2025
2025-04-28
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
The Liberals won the 2025 federal election, taking the most seats (169 to 144) with Mark Carney in the lead. The most revealing part was the swing: in January the market gave the Conservatives about 85%; by April it flipped to the Liberals around 80%, with the two parties' vote share near-tied throughout. The market repriced the winner before the polls did. The market measures who wins seats, the poll measures vote share; that gap, party by party in the table, is the signal AFOS tracks.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43% | 80.2% | +37.2pp |
| Conservative | 41% | 19.5% | -21.5pp |
| NDP | 7% | 0.1% | -6.9pp |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% | 0.1% | -5.9pp |
| People's Party | 1% | 0.1% | -0.9pp |
| Green | 1% | 0.1% | -0.9pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $11.9MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 11.9M
Latest poll (Liaison Strategies, 2025-04-27) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 437 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Canada's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Canada's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Canada directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Canada is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.