Chile
ChileRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential 2025
2025-11-16
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
José Antonio Kast won the runoff with 58% and will be Chile's next president. For months, though, polls put Jeannette Jara ahead in the first round (about 26%), while the market already priced Kast near 66% to win the election, anticipating the right uniting in the runoff. The market read the outcome; the poll measured only first-round vote. The gap between the two, candidate by candidate in the table below, is the signal AFOS tracks, not a polling error.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeannette Jara | 26% | 16.2% | -9.8pp |
| José Antonio Kast | 21% | 66% | +45pp |
| Evelyn Matthei | 14% | 5.8% | -8.2pp |
| Johannes Kaiser | 14% | 12.3% | -1.7pp |
| Franco Parisi | 10% | 0.8% | -9.2pp |
| Eduardo Artés | 1% | 0.1% | -0.9pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $48.8MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 48.8M
Latest poll (Panel Ciudadano, 2025-10-31) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 100 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Chile's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Chile's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Chile directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Chile is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.