Colombia
ColombiaRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential 2026
2026-05-31
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
First round (May 31): De la Espriella 43.7% × Cepeda 40.9%, no majority, advancing to a runoff. Result (runoff, June 21): De la Espriella won 49.66% × 48.70% over Cepeda, a ~0.96pp margin (~250k votes), with nearly 100% counted. The cross-reference: at the close (June 14-15) the market priced De la Espriella's win as near-certain (88.5% × 12.5%) and polls gave him a ~8pp lead (AtlasIntel 50.9% × 43.1%; CNC 48.6% × 44.7%). Both called the winner correctly but missed the margin: the finish was a ~1pp near-tie, well below the poll lead and far from the market's near-certainty. AFOS read: right direction, overstated confidence, the market more so than the polls.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 50.9% | 88.5% | +37.6pp |
| Iván Cepeda | 43.1% | 12.5% | -30.6pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $37.1MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 37.1M
Latest poll (AtlasIntel, 2026-06-11) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 29 polls. 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Colombia's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Colombia's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Colombia directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Colombia is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.