France
FranceRegion: Europe
Monitored elections
Legislative (Assembly) 2024
2024-06-30
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
By SINGLE party, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) was the largest group in the Assembly (143 seats), and the deepest market (USD 917k) priced that at nearly 99% on the eve, start to finish. It was right. What flipped was the GOVERNMENT, not the largest party: the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition held the most seats by COALITION (182) thanks to the front républicain, the tactical voting in which 134 NFP and 82 Ensemble candidates withdrew from three-way runoffs to block the RN. The sensational divergence that dominated coverage, projections of a near-RN-majority (230 to 270 seats in early polls), lived in polls and thin markets and did NOT survive in the highest-volume market. That is the AFOS lesson: deep money did not buy the hype, and a divergence that does not appear at high volume is not robust.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement National⚠ Largest single party (143 seats), as the market priced. First-round vote 33.2%. | 33.2% | 98.8%* | +65.6pp* |
| La France Insoumise⚠ NFP coalition vote (28.2%). NFP held the most seats by coalition (182), but as a single party LFI (74) trailed the RN. | 28.2% | 0.85%* | -27.4pp* |
| Renaissance⚠ Ensemble coalition vote (21.3%); Renaissance is the core party. Ensemble took 159-163 seats. | 21.3% | 0.4%* | -20.9pp* |
| Les Républicains | 6.6% | 0.25% | -6.35pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $0.9MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 0.9M
Latest poll (Ipsos / Toluna projeção de cadeiras, 2024-07-05) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 52 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track France's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
France's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in France directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
France is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.