Germany
GermanyRegion: Europe
Monitored elections
Federal Election 2025
2025-02-23
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
The CDU/CSU won the 2025 federal election with about 29% of the vote and Friedrich Merz became Chancellor. The telling read is the AfD: the second-most-voted party (about 21%), yet the market gave it only about 3% to win the most seats. Vote share is not winning: in a parliament, many votes do not mean the largest bloc. The gap between vote share (poll) and probability of winning (market), party by party in the table, is the signal AFOS tracks.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 29.5% | 96.7% | +67.2pp |
| AfD | 21% | 3.3% | -17.7pp |
| SPD | 15% | 0.1% | -14.9pp |
| Grüne | 12.5% | 0.1% | -12.4pp |
| BSW | 5% | 0.1% | -4.9pp |
| FDP | 4.5% | 0.1% | -4.4pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $106.3MImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 106M
Latest poll (INSA, 2025-02-22) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 349 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track Germany's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
Germany's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in Germany directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
Germany is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.