India
IndiaRegion: Asia-Pacific
Monitored elections
General (Lok Sabha) 2024
2024-04-19
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
The largest election in history (about 980 million eligible voters, 642 million votes cast) produced the frankest case in the collection: the prediction market and the polls agreed with each other and overestimated together. They called the winner, Modi's NDA alliance, but got the size very wrong: they projected 350 to 400 of the 543 seats, and the alliance won about 293. Modi's own party, the BJP, lost the single-party majority it had governed with (240 seats), for the first time since 2014. Weighting the ranges by probability, the market (US$835k of real money) expected about 361 seats, and its deepest single market, "will the BJP keep its majority?", sat between 80% and 96% YES and was wrong. The cause: the vote was a near-tie (43.8% to 41.48%), and the opposition, up from 27.5% in 2019 to 41.48%, had unified; Modi's stable vote became a seat defeat. What validates the case is the official result, not the tools getting it right.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDA⚠ Share of SEATS (not votes), out of 543. Exit-poll average: 355 seats (65.4%). Market: about 361 (66.5%). Market and polls barely diverged from each other, and that is the point: they were wrong together. Actual result: 293 seats (54.0%). | 65.4% | 66.5%* | +1.1pp* |
| INDIA⚠ Share of SEATS, out of 543. Exit-poll average for the opposition: 139 seats (25.6%). The market did not price the opposition directly; 30.6% is the residual left by the NDA ranges. Actual result: 234 seats (43.1%), far above what was projected. | 25.6% | 30.6%* | +5pp* |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $835KImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 0.8M
Latest poll (Média dos exit polls (14 casas), 2024-06-01) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 44 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track India's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
India's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in India directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
India is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.