United States
United StatesRegion: Americas
Monitored elections
Presidential 2024
2024-11-05
Completed
Divergence analysis
Prediction market × polls
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, and 2024 is the most honest case in the collection: Polymarket's two big markets disagreed with each other. The winner market (electoral college), the largest election market in history at about US$3.7 billion, gave Trump ~56% on the eve while national polls measured a near-tie, and it was right. The popular-vote market gave Harris ~74% and was wrong: Trump won the popular vote too (49.8% × 48.3%, within the polls' margin). AFOS shows the market's hit and its miss side by side, because the validator is the real result, not a convenient narrative. The market measures probability of winning, the poll measures vote share; the table uses the electoral-college market as the axis.
| Candidate | Poll | Market | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 47.8% | 56.4% | +8.5pp |
| Harris | 48.4% | 43.5% | -4.9pp |
🏆 Who won?
Volume: $3.7BImplied probability (Polymarket) · total volume US$ 3.7B
Latest poll (AtlasIntel, 2024-11-04) cross-referenced with Polymarket odds. Open dataset with 517 polls. 🎓 Harvard DOI ↗ · 🤗 Open dataset ↗
Structural context
Governance (0–100 scale)
Economy
Education
Source: World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators + World Development Indicators (2024). Annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. WGI ↗ · WDI ↗
Cross-reference graph
The election at the center, with markets, polls, press and structural context around it. The divergence between market and poll is the colored line, with the Δpp on it.
Overview
Track United States's election with prediction market data, electoral polls, and political risk analysis.
Political Risk
United States's political landscape is monitored with prediction market signals, public sentiment, and critical events that may impact FX, investments, and governance.
Market Relevance
Elections in United States directly impact capital flows, FX, and sovereign risk perception. Prediction markets offer early signals on likely scenarios.
Why monitor
United States is one of the markets monitored by AFOS Analytics. Cross-referencing prediction markets and polls enables more informed decisions for investors, analysts, and citizens.