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AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

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Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

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AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — April 22, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

The gap between Flávio Bolsonaro (38.95%) and Lula (38.5%) on Polymarket narrowed to 0.45 percentage points by the end of April 22 — half of what it was in the morning. Zema corrected after three consecutive days of gains, but remains 0.5 percentage points away from claiming third place. The Supreme Court returned to the radar after Flávio accused the STF of "activism" in defense of the governor of Minas Gerais.

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed the day with the presidential race tighter than it began. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) gave back 0.45 percentage points and closed at 38.95%; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) held at 38.5%. The gap between the two — 0.9pp in the morning — narrowed by half.

The day's outright headline remained Romeu Zema (Novo). After three days of vertical gains that took him past Renan Santos in the presidential market, Zema corrected 1 percentage point in the afternoon, closing at 6.15%. Renan is essentially tied at 6.05%. But in the "third place in 1º turno" market — where Renan led — Zema kept rising: 27.5% against Renan's 28%. A 0.5pp gap, the smallest of the cycle.

A less obvious move stood out in the "second place" market: Fernando Haddad rose from 3.35% to 6.1% (+2.75pp). The market is starting to price the São Paulo governor-candidate as an alternative in the runoff — an unexpected move worth observing in the coming days.

STF justice impeachment rose again: 12%, one point above the morning's low (11%) but still below the 13.5% recorded on April 21. The indicator oscillated sharply over 24 hours — down in the morning (after the CPI do Master cooled in Congress and Jorge Messias's confirmation hearing was postponed), up at night (after Flávio activated the anti-STF narrative). In the Senate, PL retook 83% — 2 points above where it stood in the morning.

In 2026 inflation expectations, the 5.00-5.49% band leads with 44.05%, followed by 4.50-4.99% (34.4%). The priced economic scenario remains contained, without explosion.

2. What the institutes registered

The poll database from the TSE records 194 polls indexed in the past 15 days. Five institutes published today — VOX Brasil (n=1,480), BRASMARKET (n=1,200), Instituto Piauiense (two polls), Parla Mentors. Tomorrow brings the national Paraná Pesquisas (n=1,680), whose field closes today.

The densest day is scheduled for Tuesday, April 27: three Quaest polls (totaling 3,204 respondents, total investment of R$ 601 thousand), the second national round of Paraná Pesquisas (n=1,500), and the first Nexus Pesquisa (n=2,000) — all with same-day publication. By aggregate volume, it will be the largest day of electoral polling since the cycle began.

One new state-level data point: in Rio Grande do Sul, Diário do Poder registered Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2% against Lula's 28.2% — a 14 percentage point gap favoring the senator in the state.

3. What the press covered

The political activity of the day was active on both sides.

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly defended Romeu Zema, declaring that the governor is "a victim of activism by the Judiciary" and accusing the STF of "electoral interference" (Folha de S. Paulo, Valor Econômico). Zema responded to pressure to be running mate on the ticket: "What exists are three candidacies, and I will take mine to the end" (Estadão). The tactical alliance between the two candidates on the anti-STF axis took shape over the afternoon.

On the government's side, Lula's campaign formally requested the removal of a video published by Flávio that associated the president with corruption (Folha). The PT launched a religious offensive against the senator, using biblical passages (Metrópoles). The environment was described by Tribuna da Internet as "a war of narratives in an election marked by rejection."

The institutional agenda also evolved. The Senate formally requested the STF to reject the anti-leniency-deal action by the PT that had been pulled off the shelf by Alexandre de Moraes (O Globo). The former president of BRB switched defense and signaled intent to negotiate a leniency deal (SBT News); shortly after, Daniel Vorcaro fell ill during negotiation at the Federal Police (Conexão Política). The definitive solution for BRB, according to O Globo, depends on Treasury approval.

Gazeta do Povo published the provocative headline "Could Flávio Bolsonaro be left out of the 2026 election?" — the issue of ineligibility via Moraes returned to the radar with ambiguous bias: it could hit Flávio, but it could also reinforce his persecution narrative.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × Polls: the paradox the platform has been signaling since Monday persisted. Polymarket has Flávio ahead (+0.45pp), while the Datafolha and CNT polls from April 21 still hold Lula ahead (4pp in the 1º turno per Datafolha; 4pp in the 2º turno per CNT). Neither side has yielded.

Zema: the explosion in the market has no equivalent parallel in recent polls — the Quaest of April 15 registered the governor at only 3% in the 1º turno. The market is pricing something the institutes have not yet captured.

Haddad: the jump in Polymarket's "second place" (+2.75pp) is anomalous given his position as state governor candidate. It may be short-term volatility or the start of a more structural repricing. The next three to five days will tell.

In summary

The market tightened the presidential race to 0.45pp. Half of what it was in the morning.
The tactical Flávio-Zema alliance against the STF raised impeach on Polymarket by 1pp. Worth watching whether the effect persists in the coming days.
Tuesday, April 27, concentrates five large polls (three Quaest, Paraná national second round, first Nexus — totaling about 6,700 respondents). It will be the day that may resolve — or deepen — the divergence between institutes and market.

Sources cited: Polymarket, Datafolha, CNT, Diário do Poder, TSE, Folha de S.Paulo, Valor Econômico, Estadão, O Globo, SBT News, Conexão Política, Metrópoles, Tribuna da Internet, Gazeta do Povo, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Nexus.

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or via the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.