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AFOS Daily — April 29, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

The Senate rejected Jorge Messias for the STF by 42 to 34 (1 abstention) — first rejection of a Supreme Court nominee since 1894. Polymarket reversed yesterday's empate técnico and put Flávio Bolsonaro back ahead: 43.10% × Lula 37.50%, gap of 5.6pp Flávio (was 0.25pp Flávio on Apr 28). The STF justice impeachment market rose to 15%, near the cycle peak (16%).

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed April 29 with the largest daily gap reversal of the recent cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro rose from 38.75% to 43.10% (+4.35pp) — cycle high. Lula gave back from 38.50% to 37.50% (-1.0pp). The gap, which on Apr 28 had closed at 0.25pp Flávio (unprecedented technical tie), reopened to 5.6pp Flávio in 24 hours. The repricing occurred in the hours after Messias's rejection by the Senate, recorded at 22:15 by Folha de S.Paulo.

In the "second place in 1º turno" market, Lula gave back from 25.5% to 19% (-6.5pp) — almost all of yesterday's isolated rise (+8.5pp) reversed. Fernando Haddad recovered from 2.95% to 5% (+2.05pp), maintaining the pattern of extreme volatility in this market. Flávio rose from 63.5% to 65% (+1.5pp). Renan retreated to 4.95% (-0.8pp); Zema remained stable at 2.15%.

The third way had a day of redistribution opposite to yesterday's. Renan Santos surged in the third place from 27.5% to 33.50% (+6pp) — benefited by the fall of Carlos "Ratinho Jr." Massa, who gave back from 7.10% to 0.65% (-6.45pp), erasing yesterday's gain. Romeu Zema fell in the presidential from 7.90% to 6.85% (-1.05pp) — below 7% for the first time in the recent cycle; in the third place, retreated marginally to 39% (-0.5pp). Caiado gave back in the third place to 19.5% (-3pp). Eduardo Bolsonaro entered as a new name in the third place at 1.50%; Tarcísio also (0.70%); Aldo Rebelo appeared at 0.65%.

The STF justice impeachment market rose from 14% to 15% (+1pp) — near the cycle peak (16%, recorded on Apr 24). 15-day trajectory: 13.5% → 11% → 12% → 12.5% → 12.5% → 14% → 14% → 14% → 15.5% → 15% → 15% → 16% → 11% → 14% → 15%. The 4pp rise in 48 hours coincides with Messias's rejection and with the statement by the Senate president, Davi Alcolumbre, to the opposition (23:47): "the next STF will be the winner's of the election."

In the Senate, the repricing was sharp: PL gave back from 85.5% to 76% (-9.5pp) — high volatility after yesterday's recovery. União Brasil surged from 11.25% to 16.20% (+4.95pp), and PSDB rose from 7.80% to 9.75% (+1.95pp). Novo rose to 12.65% (+1.15pp), Republicanos retreated to 9.25% (-0.9pp), PSD to 5.60% (-0.8pp), MDB gave back to 2.25% (-1.7pp). PT stable at 2.65%. PP plunged to 3.20% (-7.95pp). In 2026 inflation expectations, the market reconcentrated in 4.5-5.5%: only two bands with probability above 30% (5.00-5.49% at 37.25%, 4.50-4.99% at 32%) — against five bands above 30% recorded on Apr 28. The extreme bands retreated: 7%+ fell from 39.55% to 17.20% (-22.35pp); 5.50-5.99% fell from 40.35% to 12.60% (-27.75pp).

2. What the institutes registered

The TSE database reached 209 polls indexed after the 12:00 UTC refresh, with 40 in the past 15 days. No new major national poll was published today — the reference remains the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg of Apr 28 (n=5,000): 1º turno Lula 46.6% × Flávio 39.7%; 2º turno Flávio 47.8% × Lula 47.5% (empate técnico).

At the state level, CartaCapital (14:53) published Vox SP for the São Paulo governor's race: Tarcísio 38% × Haddad 26% — 12pp gap. G1 (11:00) recorded a new Quaest in Bahia: ACM Neto and Jerônimo Rodrigues in empate técnico in the 1º turno. JOTA reinforced Cleitinho as leader in Minas Gerais. The next batch registered at the TSE concentrates on Apr 30: 4 presidential Quaest (samples 1,104 + 804 + 1,104 + 1,002 = ~4,014 respondents, confidence 0.7-0.8). Other publications in the week: F. Façanha on May 1 (n=1,006), M B Barros on May 2, A.F. Barbosa on May 3 (n=784), 100 Cidades on May 3 (2 publications with n=1,000 each), SETA on May 4 (n=450 and n=1,500), PERCENT on May 4 (n=1,200), and Real Time Big Data on May 5 (n=2,000, confidence 0.9 — highest credibility of the week).

CartaCapital (14:53) also published a story on a new Real Time Big Data poll addressing presidential dynamics, without anticipating numbers — preliminary reading that may precede full publication in the coming days.

3. What the press covered

The day's agenda was crossed by two axes: the rejection of Jorge Messias by the Senate and the advance of pressure on Daniel Vorcaro.

The Senate plenary vote for Jorge Messias's seat at the STF was recorded at 22:15 by Folha de S.Paulo: 42 against, 34 in favor, 1 abstention — first rejection of a Supreme Court nominee since 1894. Folha (22:42) added that the defeat "destabilizes the government's relationship with the Senate," and (18:33) that senators reported having received requests from Senate President Davi Alcolumbre to vote against Messias. Correio Braziliense (01:34) described the plenary as "bolsonarist celebration" after the result. Folha (23:47) recorded that Alcolumbre promised the opposition that the next STF nominee will be chosen by the winner of the election — explicit institutional consequence.

Flávio Bolsonaro made statements in sequence: "the Lula government is over" (Revista Oeste, 23:11), reproduced by Folha do Estado (01:02), Diário do Estado (00:56), GP1 (00:01), and Tribuna do Sertão (00:01). To O Globo (23:32), he framed the decision as "reaction against the excesses of the Supreme Federal Court." Veja (23:30) recorded that Flávio "insists the defeat belongs to the Lula government, not to Messias." BBC Brasil (00:16) reported that the left attributed the defeat to "political blackmail" — opposing narrative explicit in the same window.

Beyond the rejection itself, Folha de S.Paulo (Apr 30, 02:00) reported that Alcolumbre is to bury the CPI do Master in an agreement with the opposition in exchange for reducing Jair Bolsonaro's sentence — combined articulation that consolidates opposition victories on three simultaneous fronts (STF rejection, CPI Master archiving, sentence reduction). SBT News (13:35) recorded that evangelical pastors marked their presence at Messias's hearing after a service with André Mendonça — religious base weighed in the outcome.

On Banco Master and Vorcaro, the day's news included: Bradesco charges R$ 834 thousand debt from Daniel Vorcaro on credit card (Brasil 247, 08:57); Lula advised Moraes to "not let the Vorcaro case throw away his biography" (MSN, 14:27); risks of a Vorcaro leniency deal according to specialists (O POVO, 17:59); and signs of sexual exploitation and human trafficking at the banker's parties (O Cafezinho, 06:11). VEJA (11:00) published a poll indicating "signs of electoral fatigue involving Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro." Brasil 247 (19:41) published an analysis that "Lula is the favorite and should avoid 1º turno debates."

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll (1º turno): The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg of Apr 28 (n=5,000) registered Lula leading the 1º turno by 6.9pp (46.6% × 39.7%), in line with the Nexus/BTG of Apr 27 (41% × 36%). But Polymarket closed Apr 29 with Flávio ahead by 5.6pp (43.10% × 37.50%) — a 12.5pp divergence between what two major national polls register for the 1º turno and what the market prices as probability of victory. Today's repricing moved the market away from the polls, not toward them. Messias's rejection seems to have been read as a sign of institutional weakening of the government, not as noise about who wins in October.

Senate × Polymarket (Senate): The plenary vote (42 against Messias × 34 in favor) consolidated an active conservative majority of 8 votes. On the same day, the "which party elects most senators in 2026" market gave back PL from 85.5% to 76% (-9.5pp) and surged União Brasil from 11.25% to 16.20% (+4.95pp). The institutional reading of the Senate diverged from the electoral reading of the market: opposition wins a hard vote, but the market redistributes within the right rather than consolidating PL.

Inflation × politics: Even on the day the market priced significant political reorganization (presidential gap reversing, STF impeach near the peak), the 2026 inflation market reconcentrated in 4.5-5.5% — only two bands with probability above 30%, against five on Apr 28. The extreme bands retreated strongly (7%+ from 39.55% to 17.20%; 5.50-5.99% from 40.35% to 12.60%). Economic uncertainty decreased on the same day political uncertainty increased — a signal that the market treated Messias's rejection as an institutional event, not a macroeconomic shock.

In summary

The rejection of Jorge Messias by the Senate (42 × 34 × 1) — first rejection of an STF nominee since 1894 — was the central event of the day. Polymarket reacted by reopening the presidential gap to 5.6pp Flávio (43.10% × 37.50%), reversing the technical tie of Apr 28. The STF justice impeachment market rose to 15%, near the cycle peak (16%).
Internal reorganization in the third way: Renan surged in the third place on Polymarket (+6pp to 33.50%), while Massa "Ratinho Jr." gave back almost all of yesterday's gain (-6.45pp to 0.65%). Zema fell below 7% in the presidential for the first time in the recent cycle. Eduardo Bolsonaro, Tarcísio, and Aldo Rebelo appeared as new names priced in the third place.
Senate market and inflation diverged. PL Senate gave back (-9.5pp to 76%), União Brasil surged (+4.95pp to 16.20%), PSDB rose (+1.95pp to 9.75%) — the right is redistributing rather than consolidating. Inflation reconcentrated in 4.5-5.5%, with extreme bands retreating — economic uncertainty decreased on the same day political uncertainty increased.