Editions archive

The campaign moved onto television and the prediction market barely moved at all. In a presidential book of USD 138.28M, the leader stood still and th…

Polymarket's presidential book, with USD 137.64M accumulated, closed August 27 with the leader giving up 5.00pp and the runner-up rising 1.30pp, the l…

Two national polls came out on the same Wednesday and contradicted each other: Gerp has Flávio Bolsonaro winning the runoff 47% to 42% and Indexa has…

The day had no new national poll and had the largest move of the week in a side contract: third place, where the distance between Renan Santos and Ron…

For the first time in weeks, price and poll moved in the same direction on the same day: Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.80pp to 35.05% in a presidential book…

The top two in the presidential market did not move: Lula closed at 62.50% with no change at all and Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 0.10pp, in a book of USD…

Renan Santos's contract fell 1.50pp and closed at 2.65%, the lowest point of the entire recorded series, which begins on April 14. He carries USD 10.5…

Two national polls came out on the same day, with overlapping fieldwork, and they disagree by more than nine points in the runoff: Datafolha puts Lula…

The distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed for a fourth day running and closed at 30.65pp, in a presidential book that has accumulated US…

The distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed for the third day running and closed at 30.95pp, in a presidential book that has accumulated U…

The distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed for the second day running and closed at 31.45pp, against 37.05pp on August 16, in a president…

The first national poll since Aug 14 came out and said almost nothing had changed: the distance between the top two stayed at the same 5 points and th…

The official campaign began and the price moved before the rallies, not because of them. The leader reached 66.50% and matched the top of a three-mont…

The polls narrowed and the price pushed apart, over the same pair of days. Quaest showed both distances between the top two falling against the house'…

The presidential price had a confirmed reading again on August 14 and barely moved, with the leader on his sixth straight day at 63.50% over a preside…

PoderData published the first national poll in two days and the finding is in the house compared with itself: the first round has not moved in four we…

No new national poll, and the price moved where the election is not decided. In the contract about who wins, Lula stayed at the same value for the fou…

Three national polls came out on the same day and disagree by eleven points in the runoff, with Gerp putting Flávio Bolsonaro ahead for the first time…

The day brought polling and it brought price, and the two point in different directions. Two national polls were published, with the runner-up ranging…

A Sunday when the price moved and the polling stayed still. The gap narrowed again, to +36.55pp, but from one side only: Lula gave way 1.00pp and brok…

A Saturday when both sides of the crossing stood still and what moved was the board. The six-day run of narrowing in the gap did not continue and it c…

A Friday with no new poll, Lula's price flat for the fourth day and the gap narrowing for the sixth. The tightening reached +37.55pp and came entirely…

A Thursday with no new poll and a price moving on its own. The gap between Lula and Flávio narrowed for the fifth day running and closed at +37.65pp,…

A Wednesday of double polling and an expiring deadline. Two national polls came out on the same day and from the same fieldwork window, Genial/Quaest…

A Tuesday of party definition, with the board moving more than the polling did. Zema closed his ticket with Senator Eduardo Girão, Flávio took two all…

BTG/Nexus cut Lula's first-round lead from 9pp to 4pp and the prediction market closed the gap alongside it, from +40.95pp to +40.05pp. In both cases…

The PT formally launched Lula and Alckmin at its national convention, and the market did not move: the favourite held at 65.50% and the gap over Flávi…

With 64 days to the first round, the favourite's price broke its own top for a second consecutive session and the gap reached the widest value in the…

With 65 days to the first round, the favourite's price broke a ceiling that had held since April and the gap crossed 40pp for the first time. On the s…

With 66 days to the first round, the favourite's price rose 1.00pp and the day's polling, read inside the house itself, did not move. PoderData has Lu…

With 67 days to the first round, Wednesday inverted Tuesday: the national poll with the largest sample in the window came out and the favourite's pric…

With 68 days to the first round, Tuesday inverted Monday: no national poll came out and the favourite's price rose 1.00pp, touching the ceiling of the…

With 69 days to the first round, the first national poll with fieldwork entirely after the PL convention confirmed the picture at the top and scramble…

At 70 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the PSD formalized Ronaldo Caiado for the presidency with Gilberto Kassab as running m…

At 71 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the polling returned and said nothing had changed: the [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafo…

At 72 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) was registered with the [TSE](/en/glossary#tse) fo…

73 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), no national voting intention poll was published, and yet the market experienced its large…

74 days before the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), Gerp published the week's third national poll and the market moved in the opposite dire…

Two national pollsters broke their research drought and agreed on essentials: Lula leads the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno) with 40-41% an…

Party conventions opened this Monday and will continue through August 5, the first structural event of the cycle, while the prediction market once aga…

Third day without national polling and the gap reached the widest point of the cycle: Flávio fell to 25.65% and Lula remained flat at 60.50%, opening…

Another day without national polling and the market reversed yesterday's gains: Flávio retreated to 26.50% and the gap over Lula (60.50%) widened agai…

A day without new national polling, and the market moved on its own. Flávio rose 1.60pp to 27.05% with no polling trigger or event, a momentum that na…

The poll the panel had flagged as the test of the previous day came out and contradicted the earlier one. PoderData/Aya returned the [second round](/e…

The most reliable poll of the week broke the narrowing trend and reopened Lula's lead, and the market moved along. [Quaest](/en/glossary#quaest) showe…

The third consecutive national poll put the [second round](/en/glossary#segundo-turno) in a tie and the market did not move a cent. Futura/Apex gave L…

The day saw new polling and an [STF](/en/glossary#stf) decision, and the market moved on the latter. [Nexus/BTG Pactual](/en/glossary#nexus-btg), the…

At 84 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market barely moved, but the polling base shifted shape. The Gerp/AESP from July…

At 85 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the opposition consolidated around Flávio Bolsonaro, who recovered ground in the pred…

At 86 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the prediction market reversed the previous day's rearrangement in the third way, with…

At 87 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the day was marked by realignment in the third way: in the prediction market, which t…

At 88 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the first national poll with new numbers since early July came out: Meio/Ideia showed…

At 89 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the prediction market held near the cycle peak: Lula stable at 61.50% and the gap over…

A 90 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market resumed its uptrend toward the record: Lula returned to its peak of 61.50% (…

At 91 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), a Sunday with markets at a standstill: with no new national presidential poll, [Polyma…

With 92 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market gave back part of yesterday's record: Lula fell to 60.50% (↓1.00pp) and…

A 93 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market opened a new record: Lula broke 61% (61.50%, ↑1.00pp) and the gap over Flávi…

A 94 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market hit a new record: Lula broke 60% for the first time (60.50%, ↑3.00pp) and th…

At 95 days to the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market reversed the convergence of the previous two days: Lula rose to 57.50% (↑2.00…

A 96 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market prolonged convergence for a second day: Lula retreated to 55.50% (↓1.00pp) a…

At 97 days until the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), a day of convergence: the market pulled back Lula to 56.50% (↓1.00pp) and raised Fláv…

98 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market took Lula to a new record: he rose to 57.50% and the gap over Flávio reached t…

At 99 days to the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market consolidates Lula at the top and the Lula x Flávio gap reaches record territo…

100 days from the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno), the market maintained Lula dominant and stable at 56.50% while Flávio declined to 22.95%…

The market made a partial reversal after yesterday's record: Lula retreats to 56.50% and Flávio rises to 23.45%, with the gap closing to +33.05pp, pre…

The largest divergence of the cycle. The prediction market opened at a record in favor of Lula, who jumped to 57.50% while Flávio fell to 22.90%, brin…

The prediction market made a partial reversal of yesterday's record gap: Lula retreated to 53.50% and Flávio recovered to 25.55%, with the distance cl…

Market shift in a week without new national voting polling: [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) repriced sharply in Lula's favor, who jumped to 55.5…

Stable Sunday: no new national polling and market virtually flat, confirming [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) from yesterday. Lula held at 51.50% a…

[Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) day brought the cleanest divergence in days: the poll was relatively good for Flávio (the tightest [runoff](/en/gl…

Market day against political pressure: Lula advances to 51.50% (↑1.00pp) and the gap over Flávio reopens at +25.75pp, even on the day the Master case…

Day of partial reversal in the market: Flávio recovers to 25.95% (↑1.90pp) and Renan gives back the week's gains to 14.55% (↓1.20pp), while Lula remai…

Without a new national poll, the day was driven by the market: on [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket), Lula fell to 50.50% and Flávio to 24.05%, ope…

Two new national polls, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex, confirmed Lula expanding his advantage in the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno) and [second…

The [Nexus/BTG Pactual](/en/glossary#nexus-btg) poll of June 15 set the tone for the day: Lula widens his lead in the [first round](/en/glossary#prime…

Sunday of Copa and G7. The market keeps Lula at the peak of the cycle (49.50%) while Renan Santos posts the day's largest gain (14.65%, ↑1.55pp), wide…

The prediction market, with ~USD 99.4M traded in the presidential contract and ~USD 103.9M across the six Brazilian markets, pushed Lula to a new cycl…

On June 12, the prediction market consolidated Lula's favoritism, which rose to 47.50% in a presidential market that has already accumulated a total v…

Thursday of consolidation in the presidential prediction market, which accumulates around USD 98 million in bets. Without new national polling, Lula r…

Wednesday saw the long-anticipated poll finally released, moving the presidential prediction market, which has accumulated approximately USD 97 millio…

Tuesday saw volatility in the presidential prediction market, which accumulates around USD 97 million in bets: Flávio Bolsonaro recovered part of rece…

Monday of market continuity: Lula remained stable at 40.50% and Flávio declined 0.10pp to 27.15%, with the gap between the two at the top of the cycle…

Sunday of market continuity: the gap between Lula and Flávio widened again to +13.25pp after Flávio gave back 0.90pp, while Camilo Santana made an iso…

June 6 was a day of slight correction in the market, following three days of decline for Flávio Bolsonaro. On [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket), L…

For the first time since the June 2 turning point, market and polling point in the same direction. On [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket), Flávio Bo…

Flávio Bolsonaro's jump from June 2 is virtually fully digested: he retreated for the second day, to 30.40% (USD 6.42M), and the gap to Lula (40.50%,…

[Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) corrected part of yesterday's reversal: Flávio Bolsonaro returned about one-third of the June 2 surge, falling t…

The day brought the strongest repricing of the cycle in [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket): Flávio Bolsonaro SURGED +4.2pp to 33.40% (USD 6.24M) an…

June 1st brought the first national poll post-Vorcaro case — and the market reacted in the third-place range. Real Time Big Data (n=2.000) shows Lula…

Sunday market in holding pattern: the top remains static (Lula 40.50% with USD 6.01M accumulated), but the Lula × Flávio gap WIDENS to +12.15pp becaus…

Saturday with low national activity: the top of the market remains static (Lula 40.50% with USD 5.99M accumulated, Flávio 28.65% with USD 6.13M, gap +…

[Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) retreats from yesterday's gains (Lula 40.50%, ↓1.00pp; Lula × Flávio gap narrows to +11.85pp), while Senate [PL]…

Meio/Ideia BR-02918/2026 published today (1st round Lula 38.5% × Flávio 31.5% gap +7pp; 2nd round 46.5% × 41.4% gap +5.1pp) confirms the third Tier 1+…

Indexa Pesquisas confirms [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) May 22 with same gap +9pp [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno) between Lula and Fl…

[Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) reacts to Vorcaro-Trump-White House dual crisis with tail compression: zeroed-out outsiders free up capital, top…

Monday of the highest compression in the Polymarket cycle (cumulative aggregate vol USD ~87M since opening): Lula × Flávio gap compresses 7.60pp in 24…

Sunday of consolidation. [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) Flávio Bolsonaro yields another 1.70pp to 26.05% (vol USD 5.96M), cycle minimum; gap Lu…

The reverberations of the [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) published on May 22 consolidate the narrative of the day: 48% of voters believe that Flá…

The first [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) post-Vorcaro confirms the deterioration captured by [AtlasIntel](/en/glossary#atlasintel) (May 19) and V…

Vox Brasil confirms deterioration of Flávio: Lula 46.8% × Flávio 38.1% in the [second round](/en/glossary#segundo-turno) (gap +8.7pp), second national…

Vox Brasil publishes first national poll post-[AtlasIntel](/en/glossary#atlasintel) and confirms deterioration of Flávio Bolsonaro ([second round](/en…

[AtlasIntel](/en/glossary#atlasintel) published and the three signals that shook everything: Flávio drops six points in the national poll, [Polymarket…

Polymarket (USD 79.25M accumulated since opening) registers first Lula variation in more than 60 hours: drops to 44.50%→43.50% (↓1.00pp in 20h) while…

[Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) (USD 78,85M accumulated since opening) deepens divergence with published polling: Lula remains stable at 44,50%…

[Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) published May 16 with Lula 38 × Flávio 35 (gap +3pp) in the [first round](/en/glossary#primeiro-turno) and tied 45…

Friday, May 15 has the [Datafolha](/en/glossary#datafolha) national poll (n=2.004, fieldwork May 12-14) registered with the [TSE](/en/glossary#tse) fo…

Thursday, May 14 begins with [PF](/en/glossary#pf) arresting Henrique Vorcaro, Daniel Vorcaro's father, in the 6th phase of Operation Compliance Zero.…

Wednesday, May 13 reverses the presidential board in an unprecedented movement in the recent series. Leaked audio shows Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating R…

Tuesday (May 12) reshuffles the board one day before [Quaest](/en/glossary#quaest). Flávio SURGES on [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) to 43.35% (…

Monday (May 11) brings three signals that will intersect until the Quaest D-Day (May 13): Futura/Apex publishes [Empate técnico](/en/glossary#empate-t…

The presidential gap on [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) collapses from +6.15pp to +1.10pp in 24 hours: Lula surges to 40.50% (↑3.00pp) and Flávi…

Moraes suspends the Lei da Dosimetria through monocratic decision hours after promulgation, and [STF](/en/glossary#stf) impeach recovers 14.00% on [Po…

[PF](/en/glossary#pf) and Mendonça unfold Operation Compliance Zero against senator [Ciro Nogueira](/en/glossary#ciro-nogueira) on May 8. [Polymarket]…

Lula and Trump met for three hours at the White House, with Trump qualifying the meeting as very good. [PF](/en/glossary#pf) launched the 5th phase of…

[Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) reacts to developments from Jorge Messias rejection with [STF](/en/glossary#stf) impeach RECOVERS strongly 14.50…

Lula stabilizes on [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) at 36.50% (maintains the floor) and Flávio cedes slightly to 44.05% (↓0.20pp), with gap in sl…

Lula plummets for the fourth consecutive day on [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) (36.50%, ↓1.0pp) and gap with Flávio (44.25%, ↑0.30pp) widens fu…

Flávio recovers top position in [Polymarket](/en/glossary#polymarket) (43.95%, ↑1.30pp) and Lula reverses yesterday's recovery (37.50%, ↓1.0pp). Gap w…

Lula recovers 1pp on Polymarket and gap with Flávio narrows to 4.15pp. STF impeach reverses part of yesterday's drop (14% after 13%). Vorcaro case esc…

Real Time Big Data published a national poll showing a statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — released ahead of schedule (it had been pla…

For the first time in the cycle, Renan Santos (38%) overtook Romeu Zema (37%) on Polymarket's 'third place' market — a historic inversion. Zema, who h…

The Senate rejected Jorge Messias for the STF by 42 to 34 (1 abstention) — first rejection of a Supreme Court nominee since 1894. Polymarket reversed…

For the first time in the cycle, Polymarket priced a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro: 38.50% × 38.75%, gap of 0.25pp — closing yesterd…

For the first time in the cycle, Flávio Bolsonaro crossed 40% on Polymarket (40.30%) and opened the largest gap of the cycle over Lula — 4.8 percentag…

Lula fell to 37.5% on Polymarket (-1pp), and Flávio Bolsonaro opened a 1.65 percentage point advantage — the largest of the cycle in favor of the sena…

Polymarket experienced the most volatile day of the cycle: three lead inversions in 24 hours. In the morning, Flávio opened a 4.15pp gap over Lula; in…

Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula on Polymarket for the first time since Monday and closed Friday with 3.3 percentage points of advantage — the largest d…

Lula retook the presidential lead on Polymarket with a 0.55 percentage point advantage over Flávio and hardened the campaign tone, promising to leave…

The gap between Flávio Bolsonaro (38.95%) and Lula (38.5%) on Polymarket narrowed to 0.45 percentage points by the end of April 22 — half of what it w…