What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 13, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket at 19:00 BRT, Lula SURGES to 45,50% (↑7,00pp from 38,50%) — the largest individual movement in 24h of the recent series in the presidential market. Flávio Bolsonaro PLUMMETS to 28,45% (↓14,90pp from 43,35%) — the largest drop in 24h of the series. The gap reverses completely: it was +4,85pp Flávio on May 12 and closed at +17,05pp Lula on May 13, a variation of 21,90pp between two daily snapshots. The movement occurs on the same day CNN Brasil published the audio in which Flávio negotiates R$ 134 million with Daniel Vorcaro to finance the film "Dark Horse".

In the third way, Romeu Zema SURGES presidentially to 12,00% (↑8,15pp from 3,85%) — the largest individual jump in 24h of the series in the third-way range. Renan Santos SURGES to 7,05% (↑1,20pp). The two absorb part of the migration leaving Flávio. Michelle Bolsonaro SURGES to 1,95% (↑1,50pp) in a scenario where VEJA reported that Bolsonarists debate in groups a possible replacement of Flávio — early signal attributed by the outlet, not a consolidated decision.

In 2nd place, Flávio yields to 61,00% (↓6,50pp from 67,50%) but maintains absolute leadership of the position. Lula 15,50% (↓1,00pp). Zema rises to 7,25% (↑4,30pp). In 3rd place, Zema recovers leadership of the dispute with 35,00% (↑2,50pp), followed by Renan at 31,50% and Caiado stable at 18,50%.

The STF Impeach COLLAPSES to 6,50% (↓4,00pp from 10,50%) — the downward trajectory accumulates 9,00pp in 48h and appears to reflect that the direct electoral crisis absorbs attention that previously orbited the anti-STF narrative.

In the Senate, the PL recovers to 77,00% (↑2,00pp from 75,00%) even with Flávio's individual crisis. The MDB returns strong to 5,00% (↓3,65pp from 8,65%), Podemos returns to 1,35% (↓1,70pp). PT consolidates at 3,05% (↑0,15pp). In 2026 inflation, the 4,50-4,99% band SURGES to 18,95% (↑6,75pp), and the high bands (≥6,50%) RETURN colossally to 17,20% (↓23,10pp from 40,30% on May 12), reversing the extreme fiscal narrative priced in the day before.

2. What the institutes registered

The Quaest/Genial national, field from May 8 to 11 and sample n=2.004, published on May 13 and marked Lula 39%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%, Caiado 4% and Zema 4% in the 1º turno (according to G1, Gazeta do Povo and CartaCapital). In the 2º turno, Quaest registered Lula 42% × Flávio 41% (Genial/Quaest, JOTA) — Empate técnico, but with Lula numerically ahead for the first time in the institute's recent series.

Quaest itself also registered improvement in Lula's evaluation, growth in voting intention and fall in rejection (according to Jornal Opção and Brasil 247). Estadão observed in analysis that voters see neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro as moderate names, signaling that Lula's recovery on Polymarket is not only about the crisis on the right, but about voter composition in which polarization is not seen as a positive attribute. The next national publication is Datafolha n=2.004 on May 15 (D+1 of AFOS launch), covering Trump, STF and Desenrola, and should serve as an institutional validation test for Quaest numbers.

State surveys published on May 13 concentrate on regional maps. The TSE registered on May 13 eight state surveys with publication scheduled for May 15-17 (Datafolha n=2.004 national + Veritá n=3.330, Doxa, Qualitta, ECM, Falabella, Parla Mentors, Perfil — all state-level).## 3. What the press covered

The central vector of journalistic coverage of the day is the Flávio×Vorcaro audio, original reporting by Intercept Brasil. CNN Brasil made the audio available in full, Correio Braziliense confirmed the content of R$ 134 million and Estado de Minas recorded the audio. In parallel investigation, Metrópoles reported that Vorcaro paid R$ 61 million for the film in six transfers between February and May 2025, while Brasil 247 covered the financial fallout of the scandal. In a chronologically relevant record for the defense, Diário Grande ABC reported that messages between Flávio and Vorcaro were exchanged three months after the CVM pointed out Banco Master fraud, and that one day after the conversation, Vorcaro was arrested while trying to flee the country.

The dynamics among allies began to fracture publicly. G1 reported among columnists that messages between Flávio and Vorcaro "leave allies bewildered and put candidacy in question", and Gerson Camarotti's blog reported that the Flávio-Vorcaro relationship is viewed as a "bombshell" in the pre-campaign, with allies claiming to feel betrayed. On institutional matters, O Globo reported that Carlos Bolsonaro reacted to Zema over his criticism of the case, and Folha de S.Paulo reported Zema calling the episode "unforgivable, a slap in the face". On another front, G1 reported Paulo Teixeira calling the scheme the "Rouanet Law of the Bolsonaro family".

Flávio's institutional defense came from the Leader of PL in the Chamber, Sóstenes Cavalcante, who described the transfer as "private sponsorship". On another front, Revista Fórum reported that Flávio's campaign consultant received R$ 650 thousand in Pix under Vorcaro's plan against the Central Bank.

On institutional matters, O Globo covered the swearing-in of Kassio Nunes Marques as president of the TSE with coverage of Michelle Bolsonaro alongside Moraes' wife — a symbolic element on the same day as the crisis. The market reacted swiftly: Folha de S.Paulo reported that the dollar hit R$ 5 and the stock market fell after the reporting linked Vorcaro to Flávio, and VEJA confirmed that the Ibovespa declined and the dollar rose more than 2%.## 4. Divergences of the day

Market × news (Flávio/Vorcaro): Polymarket moves 21.90pp in 24h on the same day the Flávio×Vorcaro audio leaks for R$ 134 million and Flávio admits the request. The timing is compatible but does not constitute proof of direct causation. The market may be simultaneously pricing the audio + the Quaest published in the afternoon + the open debate about potential replacement of Flávio reported by VEJA. Caution: three signals converge in a window of hours.

Market × research (third way): Quaest 05/13 marks Caiado 4% × Zema 4% empate técnico in the 1º turno, but Polymarket prices Zema at 12.00% (↑8.15pp in 24h) and Caiado 1.25% stable. There is an asymmetry of 8.75pp between the two candidates on Polymarket that has no direct support in research. Market appears to price Zema as the preferred recipient of the migration space leaving Flávio — a technical reading, not confirmed by research.

Quaest × Polymarket (gap): Quaest registers Lula 39% × Flávio 33% in the 1º turno (research gap +6pp Lula) and Lula 42% × Flávio 41% in the 2º turno (empate técnico). Polymarket prices Lula 45.50% × Flávio 28.45% (market gap +17.05pp Lula). The 11pp divergence between the Polymarket gap and the research gap indicates that the market is more aggressive than research in pricing Flávio's deterioration — there may be convergence in the next snapshots as Datafolha on 05/15 delivers additional reading.

In summary

The window 05/12-05/13 produced the largest reversal of presidential spread in the recent Polymarket series (21.90pp in 24h), simultaneous with the leak of the Flávio×Vorcaro audio and the publication of national Quaest. The three signals (leak + admission + research) converge on the same day and the market prices deterioration even more pronounced than research records.
The third way reorganizes with Zema absorbing more space than Caiado on Polymarket, despite empate técnico in Quaest 1º turno (4% × 4%). Renan also advances (↑1.20pp), and Michelle Bolsonaro SURGES 1.95% (↑1.50pp) in a scenario where Flávio's replacement is a topic discussed in Bolsonarist groups according to VEJA.
The STF Impeach continues collapsing (from 10.50% to 6.50%, accumulating 9.00pp decline in 48h) and the high bands of inflation return 23.10pp of the expansion recorded on 05/12. The market appears to be reorganizing anti-establishment and extreme fiscal narratives while the direct electoral crisis absorbs main attention — Datafolha on 05/15 will be the next test of institutional validation of the repositioning.—

Sources consulted — articles with direct links to news:

Sources consulted — secondary articles (attributed in plain text when URL did not pass gate):

Intercept Brasil — Original report of audio Flávio negotiated R$ 134 million with Vorcaro (May 13)
BBC News Brasil — From 'very low budget' to millions demanded by Flávio from Vorcaro: behind the scenes of film about Bolsonaro (May 13)
Gazeta do Povo — End of t-shirt tax: understand government turnaround (May 13)
Gazeta do Povo — Quaest releases presidential voting intention survey (May 13)
CartaCapital — Quaest 1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio Bolsonaro 33% (May 13)
Estadão — Messages from Flávio to Vorcaro become ammunition for Lula (May 13)
Estadão — Voter does not see Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as moderate names, points out Genial/Quaest (May 13)
Estadão — Quaest survey: Flávio Bolsonaro will need Michelle's support to turn the game around (May 13)
Jornal Opção — Lula improves approval, grows in voting intentions and sees rejection decline, points out Genial/Quaest (May 13)
Brasil 247 — Lindbergh celebrates Quaest survey and predicts increased rejection of Flávio (May 13)
CBN — After revelations, Lula's campaign will exploit connection between Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro on social media (May 13)
SBT News — Lindbergh asks PF for preventive arrest of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (May 13)
SBT News — Jair Bolsonaro gives order to support Flávio (May 13, Leandro Magalhães column)
TSE — When taking office as President of TSE, Nunes Marques defends the sovereign will of the people at the ballot box (May 13)

Method. Cross-reference between Polymarket (live prices via gamma API — Brazilian presidential, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach, Senate, inflation 2026), electoral surveys registered with TSE, and news coverage of the day. Variations in pp compared with snapshot from May 12 18:45 BRT. Each factual claim appears with inline link to primary source when available, or plain-text attribution to outlet when the article link did not pass through URL gate. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.

More. Full coverage at afos-analytics.com. Archive at afos-analytics.com/en/daily. Open repository at github.com/AFOS-Analytics/afos-analitica-2026.