What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 12, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket at 18:45 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro SURGES to 43.35% (↑2.00pp from 41.35%) — largest individual movement in 24h in the presidential market. Lula slightly yields to 38.50% (↓1.00pp), expanding the COLOSSAL gap to +4.85pp Flávio (vs +1.85pp on May 11). The 3.00pp expansion in a single window is the largest spread jump since the start of the recent series. The movement occurs on the eve of the Quaest national confirmed for May 13.

In the 2nd place, Flávio consolidates 67.50% stable, while Lula GIVES BACK to 16.50% (↓3.50pp from 20.00%) — significant loss of strong position. Renan Santos SURGES to 6.75% (↑1.30pp), Alckmin recovers to 1.50% (↑0.50pp). In the 3rd place, Zema maintains leadership at 32.50% (↓1.00pp), followed by Renan at 32.00% (↑0.50pp) in Empate técnico, Caiado maintains 18.50% stable, Camilo Santana SURGES to 7.00% (↑2.75pp continuing three-day advance) and Flávio 3L SURGES to 5.75% (↑2.45pp recovers).

The STF Impeach COLLAPSES to 10.50% (↓5.00pp from 15.50%) — largest daily decline in the series. The 28-day trajectory ends below the level observed on May 6, reflecting the simultaneous opening of three alternative institutional pathways discussed in section 3 (TSE inauguration, Amnesty PEC, dosimetry applicability).

The Senate undergoes COLOSSAL reorganization once again: PL GIVES BACK STRONG to 75.00% (↓7.00pp from 82.00%) — largest daily concession in the recent series of PL leadership. MDB SURGES STRONG to 8.65% (↑3.75pp) capturing space, Republicanos GIVES BACK to 5.45% (↓2.70pp) correcting the May 11 jump, Podemos GIVES BACK to 3.05% (↓2.05pp), PT recovers to 2.90% (↑0.75pp), Novo advances to 1.00% (↑0.20pp). In 2026 inflation, the 5.50-5.99% band SURGES COLOSSAL to 23.80% (↑12.30pp from 11.50%) — largest individual movement of the day across the entire observed window. High bands (≥6.50%) SURGE COLOSSAL to 40.30% aggregated (↑11.40pp from 28.90%).

2. What polling institutes registered

No national survey was published on May 12. The week's agenda concentrates ahead: Quaest national publishes on May 13 (n=2,004, field May 8-11, TSE registry) and Datafolha publishes on May 15 covering "impact of Trump, STF and Desenrola in the 2026 race" (n=2,004, fieldStart May 12, TSE registry BR002902026). The two institutes together publish more than 4,000 respondents in 72 hours, setting up two consecutive institutional validation references.

On the state agenda for May 12, Revista Oeste highlighted a new Real Time Big Data round in Mato Grosso do Sul showing Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, and O Antagonista released exclusive survey pointing to Flávio's advance in the Federal District. In regional analysis of earlier rounds, Sobral Online reported that AtlasIntel registers decline of Lula's "northeastern bonus", reconfiguring the scenario with reduced advantage in the North/Northeast.

Exame cataloged Datafolha, Quaest and Gerp as the next three national electoral surveys in the tight window, with Gerp publishing on May 14 (n=2,000, TSE registry BR033692026).## 3. What the press covered

In the institutional field, the most relevant event on May 12 was the official inauguration of Kassio Nunes Marques as president of the TSE and André Mendonça as vice-president. G1 broadcasted the ceremony and Folha de S.Paulo analyzed the context: Kassio assumes "after rapprochement with the Lula government and amid suspicion from Bolsonaro's allies". Folha also published a profile of the new TSE president, and O Globo highlighted that the inauguration marks the first meeting between Lula and Flávio as pre-candidates for the Planalto.

In developments of the Master case, three anchor outlets documented a new front on May 12. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Flávio Bolsonaro's marketing specialist was cited in a Vorcaro plan against the Central Bank, having received R$ 650 thousand from a brokerage owner. In addition, Malu Gaspar's column in O Globo reported that Vorcaro commissioned a plan with influencers who launched suspicions about the Central Bank, and Estadão reported that the businessman confirmed to the PF having brokered the hiring of influencers to defend Vorcaro. In parallel, Valdemar Costa Neto declared "we want Ciro on Flávio's platform", while Rádio Itatiaia highlighted that the Master case is central to the articulation.

In the field of parliamentary reaction to Moraes's decision on the Sentencing Guidelines Law, three simultaneous fronts. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Bolsonarists renew offensive against the STF but Congress leadership awaits validation of sentencing guidelines. O Globo reported that presidential candidates from the right escalate tone against Moraes and opposition aims to resume amnesty debate. Estadão reported a new impeachment request for Moraes filed by the opposition. In coordination, O Globo reported that Fachin will receive parliamentarians to discuss the Sentencing Guidelines Law and awaits Moraes to define trial, opening a mediation channel within the Court.

In a complementary agenda, O Globo reported Alcolumbre missing a Lula event after Messias rejection, while Motta makes gestures toward the government. Folha de S.Paulo reported that the PGR again requested conviction of Eduardo Bolsonaro for actions in the USA against the STF. In an international financial angle, Revista Fórum reported that the world's largest asset manager sees Lula reelected and ignores Flávio Bolsonaro's name in presentations in the USA. And on the state map, G1 reported that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro still do not have a defined platform in Minas Gerais, a decisive state.## 4. Day's divergences

Market × news (Vorcaro/Flávio): Polymarket prices a COLOSSAL gap of +4.85pp Flávio (↑3.00pp in 24h) on the same day that Folha, O Globo and Estadão publish reports connecting Flávio's marketer to a Vorcaro plan against the Central Bank (R$ 650 thousand in payments). The market is either anticipating the Quaest of May 13 and the Datafolha of May 15 with favorable polls, or is discounting the electoral relevance of the Master case developments at this stage. Economic coverage pressuring a candidate by his marketer's name has no direct precedent in the 30-day series.

Market × STF process: STF Impeach COLLAPSES to 10.50% (↓5.00pp) — largest daily drop in the series — exactly when Estadão records a new impeachment request for Moraes presented by the opposition. The market appears to interpret that the opening of three alternative institutional pathways (Kassio's official appointment TSE, Amnesty PEC in articulation, dosimetry applicability via Chamber) reduces impeach to a secondary option — new impeachment request is classified as a ritual move, not as effective acceleration.

Market × international scenario: even with Revista Fórum reporting that the world's largest asset manager prices Lula reelected in presentations in the US, the presidential gap on Polymarket expands to +4.85pp Flávio. The two readings do not cancel each other out, but indicate that the prediction market reads the Brazilian electorate differently than international financial analysts read Brazilian macro politics.

In summary

Flávio SURGES, Lula 2L RETREATS, gap COLOSSAL +4.85pp: Polymarket registers the largest spread jump in the recent series in 24 hours. Lula loses 3.50pp in second place, a strong position he had maintained since the beginning of the observed window.
STF Impeach COLLAPSES 10.50% (↓5.00pp): market prices the opening of three alternative institutional pathways (Kassio's official appointment + Mendonça TSE on May 12, Amnesty PEC resumed via G1, dosimetry applicability via Chamber/Motta), making impeachment a secondary path relative to legislative and procedural channels.
Datafolha May 15 and Quaest May 13 as two consecutive benchmarks: polling agenda concentrates 4,000+ respondents in 72 hours. Datafolha will cover impact of Trump, STF and Desenrola. Institutional coverage of the TSE has just changed leadership.—

Sources consulted — articles with direct link to news:

Sources consulted — secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Method. Cross-reference Polymarket (live prices via gamma API — Brazil presidential, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach, Senate, 2026 inflation), electoral surveys registered with the TSE, and journalistic coverage of the day. Variations in pp compared with the snapshot from May 11, 22:00 BRT. Each factual claim appears with inline link to the primary source. Summary generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.