What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 17, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On the Polymarket presidential — market of USD 78.85M accumulated since opening — Lula remains stable at 44.50% (accumulated volume USD 5.47M) while Flávio Bolsonaro declines to 31.30% (USD 5.63M), a drop of ↓1.20pp in 18 hours vs 32.50% at the close of May 16 evening. The gap widens to +13.20pp Lula (vs +12.00pp on May 16 evening, ↑1.20pp in 18h) — an atypical movement on a Sunday of light coverage, in which Lula consolidates without gaining and Flávio loses without the gain clearly migrating to a third candidate.

In the third way, Renan Santos declines slightly to 9.05% (USD 5.10M) (↓0.70pp in 18h) but maintains the top Polymarket position of the third way above Romeu Zema at 5.35% (USD 2.43M) (↓0.30pp in 18h). Caiado remains stable at 1.15% (USD 2.66M); Michelle Bolsonaro declines to 2.35% (USD 6.08M) (↓0.45pp in 18h), resuming a downward trajectory after the previous day's stability. Tarcísio de Freitas registers 0.35% (USD 11.18M accumulated) — an anomaly of high volume at low probability that indicates historical concentration of bets for and against since market opening, not a signal of current competitiveness.

In the second round Polymarket, Flávio maintains leadership at 62.00% (↑1.50pp in 18h, PL base resists) × Lula 16.00% (↑1.00pp in 18h) × Renan surges to 7.70% (USD 996k, ↑1.90pp in 18h vs 5.80% on May 16) — the market prices in the chance of Renan becoming second place as Flávio declines. In the third place Polymarket, Zema recovers to 36.50% (↑4.00pp in 18h, reverting the colossal decline of May 16 and resuming leadership) ahead of Renan at 30.00% (↓1.00pp in 18h) and Caiado at 20.50% (↑2.00pp in 18h, ↑4.00pp in 48h). Flávio collapses in third place to 3.25% (↓2.30pp in 18h vs 5.55% on May 16), with the market removing the senator from the third position scenario.

The pricing of impeachment STF before 2027 reaches cycle low of 6.15% (USD 71k) (↓1.10pp in 24h, ↓6.60pp in 48h vs peak of 12.75% on May 15), consolidating 1.85pp below the 8% baseline registered at the close of May 14 evening. The market prices in that the reinomination of Jorge Messias to STF, advanced by Folha de S.Paulo, signals Executive–STF coordination that reduces the impeachment scenario via politics.

In the Senate 2026 most seats, PL maintains 78.50% (USD 243k) (↑0.50pp, stable) and Republicanos recovers to 11.00% (USD 1k, ↑0.60pp in 18h). PSD reverts decline to 5.65% (↑2.05pp in 18h vs 3.60% on May 16). The MDB collapses the anomalous spike from the previous day to 4.70% (↓11.85pp in 18h vs 16.55% on May 16) — the accumulated volume USD 1k confirms that the May 16 peak was a low liquidity distortion, not a signal. The Senate sub-markets are characterized by accumulated volumes in the USD 1k–2k range, requiring caution in reading variations beyond PL.

In annual inflation 2026, the grouping of high bands (≥6.50%) recovers to 15.85% (↑2.65pp in 18h vs 13.20% on May 16), reverting the previous day's decline — extreme fiscal narrative returns to being priced in. The central band 5.00–5.49% rises to 27.60% (↑1.55pp).

2. What the institutes registered

The current national reference remains the Datafolha published on May 16 by Folha de S.Paulo (n=2.004, field May 12-14, registration TSE BR-00290/2026) with Lula 38% × Flávio 35% in the 1º turno (gap +3pp) and tie 45% × 45% in the 2º turno. The Quaest published on May 13 with Lula 39% × Flávio 33% (gap +6pp) remains as an intermediate reference. No new national poll was released on May 17; VEJA published a comparative analysis of Datafolha and AtlasIntel in the context following the Flávio–Vorcaro audio, framing the window as a pre-scandal portrait in most of the field.

The divergence between market and poll widens on May 17: Polymarket prices in a gap of +13.20pp Lula in the 1º turno while Datafolha registers +3pp — a divergence of 10.20pp between the signal of "real money" (USD 11.10M summing volumes Lula + Flávio) and the published poll n=2.004. Carta Capital reported new poll of voting intention in Minas Gerais amid Pacheco's uncertainty, opening a relevant state window in the week.

📅 Polls calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication scheduled between May 18 and May 24. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1.000. Each protocol linked to the TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 19	AtlasIntel 🔥	5.000	state	BR069392026	0.9
May 19	AtlasIntel	1.200	state	BR032432026	0.8
May 20	VETOR ARROW 🔥	9.000	state	BR049702026	0.7
May 20	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR017442026	0.8
May 20	VOX BRASIL	2.100	state	BR024162026	0.7
May 21	VETOR ARROW 🔥	9.000	state	BR093012026	0.7
May 21	100 Cidades	2.000	state	BR065292026	0.7
May 21	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR071142026	0.8

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The institutional axis of the day had two converging signals on May 17. Hugo Motta declared to G1 that the request to open the Master CPI will receive "regulatory treatment", in remarks reproduced by Revista Oeste, by Pleno.News and by Portal 96FM as "we will comply with the regulations" — a signal of institutional moderation in the Chamber that may cool the urgency of the CPI even with the seven requests already filed. In parallel, Folha de S.Paulo advanced that Lula tells allies he will resubmit to the Senate Jorge Messias's nomination for a STF seat, reusing the dossier from a previously rejected nomination — a convergence of signals that Polymarket prices as a reduction in the impeachment-via-politics scenario.

In the electoral arena, Lula responds in his bid for reelection with a package of benefits and sees the Master case corner his opponents. Lula's and Flávio Bolsonaro's campaigns are already engaged in legal battle at the TSE during the pre-electoral period, in a movement also covered by BPMoney as an intensification of judicial dispute at the TSE before elections and by Imirante.com. Ricardo Kotscho signed an analysis at UOL Notícias stating that the wind has turned in Lula's favor and against Flávio Bolsonaro, while Correio Braziliense reported that Lula tries to ride the wave of Flávio's crisis following audio messages to Vorcaro.

On the opposition flank, Flávio Bolsonaro stated "they underestimated me, I won't give up on my Brazil" in remarks reproduced by Gazeta do Povo. In the right-wing center option, Abilio Brunini (mayor of Cuiabá, PL/MT) told Rdnews that he does not believe Flávio suffered damages, but wants a CPI on Banco Master and takes a dig at Zema, signaling internal hostility in the non-PL center-right segment. In the center, Folha de S.Paulo confirmed that Democracia Cristã formally nominated Joaquim Barbosa as a presidential pre-candidate and solidified a party split, in coverage also conducted by Pleno.News and by Poder360. Aécio Neves signaled PSDB neutrality in the presidential race without Ciro Gomes as a candidate.

On the economic front, Folha de S.Paulo highlighted that ending the tax on low-value imports is the government's first reaction to recent defeats in Congress.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × Datafolha — divergence widens: Polymarket prices a gap of +13,20pp Lula (USD 11,10M summing accumulated volumes Lula + Flávio) in the 1º turno; Datafolha published on May 16 (n=2.004) registered +3pp. In 18 hours the divergence shifted from 9pp to 10,20pp — the market continued pricing Flávio's deterioration while the national survey remains as the sole reference point of the pre-audio period.

STF impeach reaches cycle minimum: fell to 6,15% on May 17 (USD 71k accumulated), 6,60pp below the peak of 12,75% recorded on May 15. The market fully discounted the impeach momentum generated by the Flávio–Vorcaro audio and prices in that the reinomination of Messias to the STF (Folha) and the procedural treatment of the Master CPI (G1) draw an Executive–Legislative axis that displaces the STF stage.

MDB Senate confirms low-liquidity distortion: the anomalous spike of 16,55% on May 16 (USD 254k accumulated volume) collapsed to 4,70% on May 17 (USD 1k accumulated, ↓11,85pp in 18h). Senate sub-markets outside the PL have accumulated volumes in the USD 1k range, requiring that any variation above a few points be interpreted as liquidity noise, not signal.

In summary

Lula × Flávio gap widens to +13,20pp on Polymarket (USD 11,10M summing accumulated volumes Lula + Flávio); divergence with published Datafolha (+3pp) widens to 10,20pp in 18 hours, with Lula consolidating stability and Flávio retreating.
STF impeach reaches cycle minimum at 6,15% (USD 71k accumulated, ↓6,60pp in 48h vs peak 12,75% on May 15); convergence of Executive–Legislative signals — reinomination of Messias to the STF (Folha) and procedural treatment of the Master CPI (G1) — sustains the market's institutional discount.
MDB Senate confirms distortion: collapse from 16,55% to 4,70% in 18 hours with USD 1k accumulated volume validates the low-liquidity caveat in Senate sub-markets outside the PL; Zema resumes leadership in 3rd place on Polymarket (36,50%, ↑4,00pp in 18h).

Consulted sources — articles with direct link to the news:

Sources consulted — secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Methodology. Polymarket crosscheck (live prices and accumulated volumes via gamma API — Brazil presidential USD 78.85M accumulated since opening, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach USD 71k, Senate, inflation 2026), electoral surveys registered with the TSE (Datafolha May 16 published n=2,004 BR-00290/2026; Quaest May 13 n=2,004) and daily journalistic coverage. Accumulated USD volumes since opening of each market, snapshot at close of May 17, 17:00 BRT — cited in Section 1 as liquidity context alongside %, per convention established May 17. Variations in pp compared with snapshot of May 16, 22:30 BRT (evening), except where another reference is noted. Each factual claim appears with inline link to primary source or plain-text attribution to outlet. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed prior to publication.