What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 18, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On the Polymarket presidential — market with USD 79.25M accumulated since opening — Lula registers first variation after more than 60 hours stable: declines to 43.50% (volume USD 5.48M accumulated) (↓1.00pp in 20h vs 44.50% on May 17 close) while Flávio Bolsonaro remains practically stable at 31.55% (USD 5.64M) (↑0.25pp). The gap shrinks to +11.95pp Lula (vs +13.20pp on May 17 evening, ↓1.25pp in 20h) — first reversal of the weekend widening movement, with Lula ceding ground without Flávio capturing the gain.

In the third way, Renan Santos rises to 9.70% (USD 5.13M) (↑0.65pp in 20h, recovers pre-weekend level) and widens lead over Romeu Zema, who declines to 4.95% (USD 2.47M) (↓0.40pp in 20h, monthly low). Caiado rises slightly to 1.35% (USD 2.68M) (↑0.20pp in 20h); Haddad rises to 2.55% (USD 4.48M) (↑0.30pp in 20h) counter to Lula. Michelle Bolsonaro remains at 2.40% (USD 6.10M) (↑0.05pp).

On the second round Polymarket, Flávio maintains lead at 62.00% (stable) × Lula 15.50% (↓0.50pp in 20h) × Renan surges to 8.90% (USD 998k, ↑1.20pp in 20h, ↑3.10pp in 48h vs 5.80% on May 16) — market continues consolidating hypothesis of Renan becoming 2nd place. Zema collapses in 2nd place to 3.75% (USD 257k, ↓3.15pp in 20h vs 6.90% on May 17), returning Sunday's recovery. On the third place Polymarket, Zema maintains top at 36.50% (stable), Renan rises to 31.50% (↑1.50pp) and Caiado returns to 17.50% (↓3.00pp in 20h vs 20.50% on May 17).

The pricing of STF impeachment before 2027 reaches new cycle low at 5.30% (USD 71k) (↓0.85pp in 24h, ↓7.45pp in 72h vs peak of 12.75% on May 15, 2.70pp below the 8% baseline recorded on May 14 evening). The market prices in that the Senate act preventing new nomination of Messias to STF (O Globo) and the Senate norm barring resubmission of Messias by Lula this year (Folha de S.Paulo) signal that the Executive-STF coordination announced on May 17 faces institutional resistance, further reducing the impeachment-via-politics scenario.

On the 2026 Senate most seats Polymarket, PL maintains 78.50% (USD 243k) (stable). Republicanos returns to 6.75% (USD 1k, ↓4.25pp in 20h vs 11.00% on May 17), losing all of Sunday's recovery. MDB continues normalizing last week's anomalous spike to 1.45% (↓3.25pp in 20h, ↓15.10pp in 48h vs 16.55% on May 16) — final confirmation that the peak was a low-liquidity distortion. PSD at 5.65% stable, União Brasil 4.90% (↑1.25pp), Podemos 2.40% (↑0.60pp), PT 2.90% (↓0.10pp).

On 2026 annual inflation, the grouping of high bands (≥6.50%) returns to 14.05% (↓1.80pp in 20h vs 15.85% on May 17), reversing part of Sunday's recovery. The central band 5.00–5.49% remains at 27.50% (stable); the 5.50–5.99% band returns to 17.60% (↓4.35pp in 20h).

2. What the institutes registered

The current national reference remains the Datafolha published on May 16 by Folha de S.Paulo (n=2.004, field May 12–14, registration TSE BR-00290/2026) with Lula 38% × Flávio 35% in the 1º turno and tied 45% × 45% in the 2º turno. The Quaest published on May 13 with Lula 39% × Flávio 33% (gap +6pp) remains as intermediate reference.

The most relevant methodological movement of the day came from Datafolha itself: the new round published on Friday May 22 will include a scenario testing Michelle Bolsonaro against Lula (InfoMoney), formally instituting the replacement test on the right-wing ticket, as also reported by CartaCapital and VEJA. In parallel, AtlasIntel publishes tomorrow May 19 a new national survey n=5.000 testing the impact of Vorcaro on Flávio Bolsonaro (Valor)](https://valor.globo.com/politica/noticia/2026/05/18/a-pesquisa-atlasintel-que-vai-testar-o-impacto-de-vorcaro-sobre-flavio-bolsonaro.ghtml).

On the less institutional flank, Veritá/LeiaJá registered Lula with 52% rejection and Flávio with 43.7% in a survey published on May 18 — non-Tier 1 institute but offering additional reading pre-AtlasIntel. Estadão E-Investidores made explicit the debate on electoral trade regarding the financial market's reaction to the Flávio case.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication planned between May 19 and May 25. Inclusion in table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 19	AtlasIntel 🔥	5.000	national	BR069392026	0.9
May 19	AtlasIntel	1.200	state	BR032432026	0.8
May 20	Vetor Arrow 🔥	9.000	state	BR049702026	0.7
May 20	Vox Brasil	2.100	state	BR024162026	0.7
May 20	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR017442026	0.8
May 21	Vetor Arrow 🔥	9.000	state	BR093012026	0.7
May 21	100 Cidades	2.000	state	BR065292026	0.7
May 21	Real Time Big Data	1.600	state	BR071142026	0.8
May 22	Datafolha 🔥	2.004	national	BR	1.0
May 22	Gerp	2.000	state	BR	0.7
May 23	Data Census	2.000	state	BR023422026	0.7
May 23	Econométrica	1.607	state	BR	0.7
May 23	C. Gomes Marketing	1.600	state	BR	0.7
May 23	ECM	1.200	state	BR	0.7

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 or national Tier 1. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. Press coverage

The institutional focus of the day was dominated by Senate action against Jorge Messias's reinomination to the STF announced on May 17. O Globo reported that Senate action blocks Messias's new nomination to the STF, but government sees negotiation possible, and Folha de S.Paulo detailed that the Senate rule bars Messias's resubmission by Lula this year, but Planalto studies alternatives. Polymarket priced this development as an additional reduction in the impeachment-via-politics scenario — STF impeachment reaches a new cycle low of 5.30%.

In the Master/Vorcaro case, O Globo reported that hackers subordinated to Vorcaro attempted to access columnist Lauro Jardim's cell phone, broadening the scope of the investigation. Thomas Traumann published an analysis in O Globo's column stating that Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy depends on Vorcaro's plea bargain, and Master splits STF: ministers avoid events and exchange criticism behind the scenes — analysis supplemented by frictions and crisis among STF ministers spilling over into Brasília's social events. The PF chief went to Congress amid the revelation of conversations between Flávio and Vorcaro, and Hugo Motta reiterated that the Master CPI will provide transparency to all allegations (Gazeta do Povo).On the electoral board, G1 covered that Lula cited possible interest from Trump and defended exploration of the Equatorial Margin, while Folha reported that Lula will announce R$ 30 billion to finance cars for drivers — a package of popular measures in an election year. O Globo Pulso recorded that 70% of Brazilians see confrontation between Lula and Congress, and Brasil 247 highlighted a similar survey with 70% seeing Congress sabotage against the Lula government. The small blouses tax continues to be wear on the Lula government.

On the opposition flank, the story of the day was methodological: Datafolha publishes on Friday, May 22 a round that includes for the first time a scenario with Michelle Bolsonaro against Lula — institutional formalization of the substitution test on the PL slate. Alcolumbre's allies see the movement for a new indication of Messias as strange, and Folha analyzed that the Master case affects the "Gilmarpalooza", Gilmar Mendes' annual legal congress.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × Senate: Polymarket prices STF impeach at 5.30% (USD 71k accumulated), new cycle low, despite the Senate action against Messias's reappointment (O Globo) having apparent potential to re-pressurize Executive-Legislature-STF tension. Market reads the action as a sign of institutional normalcy, not escalation — Senate doing its job via norm, not open conflict.

Polymarket × Polymarket: first clear reversal of the week — Lula × Flávio gap shrinks from +13.20pp to +11.95pp in 20h, with Lula ceding 1pp without Flávio capturing the gain. There is no obvious event of the day that justifies the reversal (Datafolha-Michelle announcement is still methodological, not new numbers). Technical reading: exit from peak after 60h+ stable is market mechanics, not news.

Datafolha × substitution hypothesis: the inclusion of Michelle Bolsonaro in the Datafolha May 22 scenario institutionalizes a test that Polymarket had already been drafting for weeks — Michelle 2.40% presidential, 2.50% second position, 4.50% third position. Market-research convergence in recognizing Michelle as a viable hypothesis, even if individual numbers are low. AtlasIntel May 19 (n=5.000) has not yet been announced with Michelle scenario; eventual absence would be methodological divergence between the two institutes.

In summary

Lula records first variation in 60h+ on Polymarket falling from 44.50% to 43.50% (↓1.00pp in 20h); gap shrinks to +11.95pp Lula (USD 11.12M summing Lula + Flávio volumes). Movement with no clear triggering event of the day — technical reading of exit from peak after prolonged stability.
STF impeach reaches new cycle low at 5.30% (USD 71k accumulated, ↓7.45pp in 72h vs peak 12.75% on May 15); Senate blocks Messias's new appointment via its own norm, but market reads it as institutional normalcy, not escalation — STF impeach continues pricing Executive-Legislature-STF coordination as the base scenario.
Datafolha May 22 institutionalizes Michelle Bolsonaro test vs Lula, first Tier 1 national poll to formalize the substitution hypothesis on the right-wing slate; AtlasIntel May 19 (n=5.000) publishes tomorrow without announced Michelle scenario, which may generate methodological divergence between the two institutes.—

Sources consulted — articles with direct links to news:

Sources consulted — secondary coverage (Google News redirect URLs — click resolves to article):

Method. Polymarket cross-check (live prices and accumulated volumes via gamma API — Brazil presidential USD 79.25M accumulated since opening, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach USD 71k, Senate, 2026 inflation), electoral surveys registered with TSE (Datafolha May 16 published n=2,004 BR-00290/2026; Quaest May 13 n=2,004; Veritá/LeiaJá May 18) and news coverage of the day. USD volumes accumulated since each market opening, snapshot at edition close May 18 13:20 BRT — cited in Section 1 as liquidity context alongside %, per convention established May 17. Variations in pp compared with snapshot from May 17 17:00 BRT (evening), except where another reference is noted. Each factual claim appears with inline link to primary source or plain-text attribution to outlet. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.