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AFOS Daily — May 24, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Sunday consolidation. Polymarket Flávio Bolsonaro yields another 1.70pp to 26.05% (vol USD 5.96M), cycle minimum; Lula × Flávio gap widens to +19.45pp with Lula stable at 45.50% for 72h+. Editorial reverberation from Datafolha May 22 remains strong, with 5 surveys from the week converging on the same directional signal. STF impeach 6.70% holds above 6%.

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket presidential market, Lula remains stable at 45.50% (vol USD 5.75M accumulated), unchanged since Wednesday May 21 — 72h+ flatline. Flávio Bolsonaro retreats another 1.70pp in 24h to 26.05% (vol USD 5.96M), reaching the absolute cycle minimum post-Vorcaro audio disclosure on May 17 (accumulated decline of 5.25pp in seven days). The market gap between the two widens to +19.45pp Lula — the largest differential ever recorded in the cycle, and expansion of 1.70pp in the last 24 hours exclusively through Flávio's movement.

In the third-way race, Renan Santos consolidates absolute second position behind Lula with 13.05% (↑1.10pp in 24h, vol USD 5.74M accumulated), maintaining comfortable distance from other names. Fernando Haddad rises to 4.85% (↑0.20pp, vol USD 4.92M) and Romeu Zema recovers to 4.75% (↑0.10pp, vol USD 2.83M), ending Saturday's brief Empate técnico. Ronaldo Caiado remains stable at 1.65% (vol USD 3.17M). Michelle Bolsonaro collapses to 1.55% (↓1.35pp in 24h, vol USD 6.64M accumulated — second highest volume in the 3rd way range but with free-falling price), reflecting final digestion of the Datafolha May 22 that showed Michelle-as-substitute scenario tied at 43% × 43% with Lula at 47% (gap of +4pp Lula, identical to Flávio scenario).

In the second place market (2L), Flávio holds the top at 56.50% (↓0.50pp in 24h vs 57.00%, vol USD 58k), but Haddad recovers 1.40pp in 24h to 5.55% — relevant movement in the center-left range. Renan yields to 14.25% (↓1.30pp), Lula stable at 11.50%, Zema rises to 3.30%. In the third place market (3L), Renan extends absolute leadership to 34.50% (↑1.50pp), Zema recovers 26.50% (↑2.00pp in 24h), Caiado at 16.50% (↑1.50pp). Flávio collapses from 11.15% to 8.15% in 3L (↓3.00pp in 24h) — solid signal of erosion also in third-place contention, indicating that the pricing of deterioration now spreads across all horizons.

In the STF impeachment market before 2027, the contract rises slightly to 6.70% (↑0.05pp in 24h vs 6.65% Saturday, vol USD 79k), holding above 6% for the fourth consecutive session and consolidating the upward correction trajectory — ↑2.35pp in ~72h vs the minimum of 4.35% post-close May 21. In the Senate plurality market, PL maintains 70.00% stable in 24h (vol USD 243k). PSD retreats to 11.65% (vol USD 1k), MDB rises to 4.75%, Republicanos 4.45%, União Brasil 4.30%, PSB 3.80%, PT 3.05%.

In 2026 inflation bands, the 5.00-5.49% band remains leader at 30.40% (↑0.40pp in 24h, vol USD 6k), the 4.50-4.99% band rises to 29.95% (↑3.55pp in 24h, vol USD 8k), and the 5.50-5.99% band recovers to 16.60% (↑4.55pp in 24h vs 12.05% Saturday, vol USD 6k). High bands (≥6.50%) compress to 5.65% (↓2.05pp in 24h vs 7.70%), signaling that the fiscal tail is retracting.

2. What the institutes recorded

The aggregate of surveys registered with TSE accumulates 293 surveys, of which 55 published in the last 15 days. The most active institutes in the recent window are Veritá (11 surveys, average sample 1.851), Real Time Big Data (4 surveys), AtlasIntel (3), Datafolha (3), and Ideia/Canal Meio (2). No tier-1 national survey was published this Sunday — the day's window was restricted to editorial aggregators on numbers already disclosed in the week.

CartaCapital aggregates five surveys from the week that converge on the same directional signal — Lula extends advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro after Vorcaro audio disclosure of May 17. Ponta Negra News reports that Datafolha May 22 shows improvement in government evaluation Lula that remains negative — 32% excellent/good (vs 28% prior) with rejection at 38% (vs 41%), maintaining the additional reading that Flávio rejection 46% exceeds Lula 45% for the first time in the series. At state scope, Jornal Opção reports that Goiás leads rejection of Lula government in Genial/Quaest survey — number favorable to Caiado's local context, without citation of specific percentages.

The next Real Time Big Data round on the presidential race includes for the first time Aécio Neves as PSDB pre-candidate in the scenario, per CartaCapital note May 24. Next prints registered with TSE for the week May 26-30 focus exclusively on state scope.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication forecast between May 27 and May 29. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel disclosure. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1.000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 27	JOTA Journalism 🔥	6.000	state	BR-pending/2026	0.7
May 27	Indexa Survey	2.000	state	BR-pending/2026	0.5
May 27	Veritá	1.030	state	BR-pending/2026	0.5
May 28	AtlasIntel	1.000	state	BR-pending/2026	0.6
May 28	Datafolha	1.022	state	BR-pending/2026	0.7
May 28	Ideia/Canal Meio	1.500	state	BR-pending/2026	0.5
May 29	PoderData	2.400	state	BR-pending/2026	0.5

Source: public registry TSE via public query. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. Zero tier-1 national surveys registered for next week — next national print expected in 1st-2nd week of June.

3. What the press covered

The dominant agenda on Sunday remained the editorial reverberation of the Datafolha survey from May 22. Five outlets published aggregators or continuity analyses — CartaCapital with aggregation of the week's five surveys, ICL Notícias with editorial reading on Lula expands lead, Ponta Negra News on Lula approval, Jornal Opção with a state-level breakdown of Goiás (Lula government rejection in Genial/Quaest), and Jornal O Sul on pressure for a Banco Master CPI registering a narrative war in the National Congress.

In opposition dynamics, Diário do Grande ABC reports Flávio's agenda with PL-MG: Flávio Bolsonaro meets this week with Minas Gerais PL to define the state gubernatorial candidate — a local agenda maintained despite the adverse national context. The meeting with Donald Trump in the United States, scheduled according to BBC for May 23, continues without relevant editorial coverage to date. The reporting from Folha de S.Paulo on May 23 about "Flávio Bolsonaro at Vorcaro's house" continues as a page story with sustained editorial traction.

On the institutional agenda, the meeting between Lula and Chamber president Hugo Motta on ending the 6×1 work schedule is scheduled for Monday, May 26 (maintained Folha report from May 23). Congress continues to stall the installation of the Banco Master CPI, with seven initiatives awaiting analysis — situation maintained from the previous week (G1). At the STF, the decision by André Mendonça (voted on May 22) and Luiz Fux (voted on May 23) to maintain the imprisonment of Daniel Vorcaro's father and cousin remains consolidated as an institutional axis against the Master group.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × survey (magnitude): Polymarket prices the Lula × Flávio gap at +19,45pp first round (reached this Sunday). Datafolha of May 22 recorded gap +9pp first round and +4pp runoff. AtlasIntel of May 19 (sample 5,000) showed +12.7pp first round. Vox Brasil of May 20 showed +8.7pp runoff. The four signals converge in direction (Lula widens advantage), but the market prices magnitude ~~2× the survey average (~~+10pp). The magnitude divergence remains open — next national print in the first week of June will determine whether the market over-priced or if the validation cycle continues.

Third way — Polymarket × narrative: The market prices Renan Santos as absolute second in the presidential race at 13.05%, comfortable distance from Haddad and Zema (4.85% and 4.75%). The Michelle Bolsonaro contract collapses to 1.55% after Datafolha of May 22 dismantled the hypothesis of surpassing by showing Michelle scenario tied at 43% × 43% with Lula at 47% (identical to Flávio scenario). Media narrative continues treating the third way as fragmented and secondary, while the market has consolidated Renan as the sole point of concentration.

STF impeach — market × editorial noise: The contract rises slightly to 6.70% (sustaining above 6% for the fourth session), while journalistic coverage of the day still emphasizes political pressure and narrative war in Congress (Jornal O Sul). The market prices in that Executive-Legislative-STF coordination replaces the impeachment route via politics — pricing above 6% signals disbelief in a structural reversal of the consolidated institutional axis.—

Summary

Polymarket consolidates Flávio Bolsonaro's deterioration: the first round contract drops 1.70pp in 24h to 26.05% (absolute cycle minimum), and the third place collapses 3.00pp to 8.15% — pricing of the erosion now spreads across all horizons of the race.
Lula 45.50% stable for 72h+: the flatline of the lead since May 21 contrasts with Flávio's active deterioration. The gap +19.45pp is the largest difference ever recorded in the Polymarket cycle.
Renan Santos consolidates absolute 2nd place (13.05%) behind Lula: comfortable distance from other third-way candidates. Michelle collapses to 1.55% after Datafolha dismantled the substitution hypothesis. Next Datafolha release (expected 1st-2nd week of June) will determine whether the magnitude of the market × survey divergence closes.

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha editorial coverage May 22 and reverberation May 23
BBC News Brasil — Flávio's trip to the USA (May 23)
G1 — Banco Master CPI Congress (May 23 maintained)
Datafolha — national survey May 22 (n=2,034)

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).