What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — June 2, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

The repricing was the strongest of the cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro surged to 33.40% (USD 6.24M) (↑4.2pp in 24h), the largest single gain in the book since monitoring began, while Lula declined to 39.50% (USD 6.08M) (↓1.0pp). The gap between the two, which was +11.3pp the day before, COLLAPSED to +6.1pp — a drop of more than 5 points in a single day.

The third way bled as a bloc in the same movement: Renan Santos retreated to 15.60% (USD 6.52M) (↓1.2pp), Ronaldo Caiado returned the previous day's surge to 2.00% (USD 3.78M) (↓0.6pp), Zema declined to 2.50% (USD 3.38M) (↓0.3pp), and Haddad retreated to 5.10% (USD 5.36M) (↓1.0pp). Renan maintains second place in the market, but the reading of the day is money rotating from the periphery to the consolidated right-wing name.

In the Senate, PL retreated to 75.50% in the race for more seats (from 77.50%), in a sub-market with thin book that calls for cautious reading. The STF impeach remained stable at 5.50% (USD 80k), with no repricing despite intense political activity.

Technical reading: unlike the noise movements of previous days, this one had a clear and dated political trigger — the consolidation of the right behind Flávio and his prominence on the US axis. The market closed the distance to Lula by half.

2. What polling institutes registered

No new national survey on June 2. The reference remains the Real Time Big Data of June 1 (n=2,000, BR-05864/2026): 1º turno Lula 38% × Flávio 31% (gap +7pp); 2º turno Lula 45% × Flávio 40%. The relevant detail is the contrast with the market: after today's movement, the gap priced by Polymarket (+6.1pp) became TIGHTER than the one registered in the latest survey (+7pp) — a convergence that reverses the relationship of previous days, when the market priced a larger margin than the surveys. The Datafolha of May 22 (1st round 40% × 31%, gap +9pp) remains as the previous reference.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at TSE with publication expected between June 3 and June 9. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. These are qualified surveys all of state scope (no national surveys) — the table lists those with largest sample. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 7	Veritá	2,010	State	BR021912026	0.7
June 5	Instituto Vox Brasil	2,100	State	BR080162026	0.7
June 5	Ranking Brasil	2,000	State	BR037682026	0.7
June 4	Paraná Pesquisas	1,680	State	BR075552026	0.8

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. All state scope; no national surveys in the window. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The economic-political fact of the day was the United States' proposal for a 25% tariff on Brazilian products, justified by criticism of PIX, judicial decisions, and deforestation, according to g1. The measure came six days after Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump, and hours later Trump posted a photo alongside Flávio — proximity that an analysis by g1 itself nicknamed "Tariff-ávio".

Flávio attempted to distance himself from the measure: he sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio requesting that the American government not proceed with the tariff, asserting that he has always defended Brazilian companies. On the other side, Lula associated the tariff increase with the Bolsonaro family, calling them "traitors to the nation"; the statement generated opposition backlash, with Flávio stating he would appeal to the STF.

On the electoral board, the decisive move came from Tarcísio de Freitas: the São Paulo governor ruled out a third way and reaffirmed support for whoever Bolsonaro indicates, declaring that "the contest will be between Lula and Flávio" and that his candidate "is Flávio, period". The statement consolidates the right behind the senator and empties, in the short term, the center-right articulation that had been gaining traction (the Caiado-Zema alliance).

4. Divergences of the day

Market × polling (convergence): after Flávio's surge, the Lula × Flávio gap on Polymarket (+6.1pp) became TIGHTER than in the latest poll (+7pp in the 1º turno, RTBD 01/Jun). It's the first time in the cycle that the market prices the race tighter than polling — a reversal of the previous pattern, in which the market had opened a wider margin.

Market × polling (Renan): Renan Santos continues priced at 15.60% on Polymarket versus 6% in Real Time Big Data — ~10pp divergence, still the widest on the dashboard, even after today's pullback.

Market × narrative: the tariff hike is a double-edged factor for Flávio. The market priced him upward (protagonism on the US axis + unified right), but the same proximity to Trump fuels the "traitor to the nation" attack mobilized by Lula and the PT — a risk that today's price still does not discount.

In summary

The gap fell by half in one day — Flávio surged +4.2pp and Lula retreated, compressing the distance from +11.3pp to +6.1pp; it was the strongest repricing of the cycle.
Two dated triggers — Tarcísio ruled out a third way and closed his support for Flávio (consolidating the right) and the US proposed a 25% tariff six days after Flávio met Trump.
The third way was the big loser — Renan, Caiado, and Zema bled together when Tarcísio binarized the race into Lula × Flávio; the Caiado-Zema alliance lost traction in the short term.—

Sources consulted

Articles with direct news links

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 2 20:24 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).