1. Prediction market

The contract flips sides. At the confirmed reading of October 25 at 21:22 BRT, the winner contract pays 99.85% for Lula (USD 42.96M) and 0.15% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 56.18M). Against the confirmed reading of October 24 at 20:06 BRT, the one in the previous daily, Lula rises 83.35pp and Flávio Bolsonaro falls 83.60pp; since the pair's sum went from 100.25 to 100.00, the normalized move is 83.39pp for each side. The gap goes from 67.25pp in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor to 99.70pp in Lula's favor.

The volume. The total volume accumulated adds up to USD 241.98M at the 21:31 BRT reading, across the 32 contracts of the presidential book. The contract with the highest volume is now Flávio Bolsonaro's, with USD 56.18M, ahead of Lula's, with USD 42.96M, which led the ranking on the eve. The second-place, third-place and Senate books have been resolved since the first round.

Supreme Court and inflation. The STF justice impeachment by 2027 contract remains at 2.80% (USD 0.10M), at the confirmed reading of October 25 at 13:39 BRT; this update publishes no new price for it. In the 2026 inflation book, at the 21:31 BRT reading, the 5.00% to 5.49% band stands at 49.45% (USD 29.9 thousand), 13.45pp below the October 24 reading, the 5.50% to 5.99% band at 33.85% (USD 23.7 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% band at 12.25% (USD 34.6 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

The ballot box. In the official TSE partial count of 21:25 BRT, with 99.86% of polling sections counted, Lula has 51.76% of the valid votes, or 64,139,700 votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro 48.24%, or 59,770,812 votes, and Lula is re-elected to a fourth term (Poder360, Gazeta do Povo, Agência Brasil and Agência Pública). In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of the valid votes, and it is the first time in a Brazilian presidential election that the candidate who trailed in the first round wins the second (Metrópoles). Datafolha projected the re-election before the tally ended (UOL and Brasil de Fato).

Turnout. In the same TSE partial count, turnout is 80.79% of the electorate, against 78.92% in the first round. The drop in abstention and in invalid votes were highlighted by G1 and Folha de S.Paulo.

The eve. Of the fifty-five national polls conducted after the first round, fifty had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, four had Lula ahead in total votes (the three Vox Brasil polls and Colectta of October 24) and one measured a tie in valid votes. The last three also had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: Veritá, by 51.56% to 48.44% in valid votes, Futura/100% Cidades, by 50.1% to 49.9%, and PoderData/Aya, by 51% to 49%.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

No national polls with a sample of 1,000 or more are registered with the TSE for the next 7 days.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 0 national polls in the window; 1 record from the same period was left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The extension. At 17:01, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted, in an injunction, a request from Lula's coalition and extended voting until 19:00, then clarified that the measure applied only to the polling sections that had not yet closed (Poder360, Estadão and G1). The TSE's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, instructed the sections still open to operate until 19:00. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign had also asked for two more hours, only in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina, because of storms, according to Estadão. Folha de S.Paulo reports voters who could not vote after 17:00.

The voting machines. The TSE said it replaced 1,516 electronic voting machines by 18:00 (Poder360 and Folha de S.Paulo). On October 24, Kassio Nunes Marques had reconsidered the requirement of prior approval, trip by trip, for the transport of Indigenous voters by federal agencies, after the Prosecutor General, Paulo Gonet, asked the Supreme Court to suspend it (Estadão and Agência Brasil).

4. Divergences of the day

Market × ballot box: on the eve, the winner contract paid 83.75% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the ballot box gave 51.76% of the valid votes to Lula. Lula stood at 16.50%, which the market read as roughly a one-in-six chance.

Polls × ballot box: fifty of the fifty-five national polls registered with the TSE conducted after the first round had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, and in the nine of October 24 in which he led the margin ranged from 0.3 to 3 points in total votes; in valid votes, the ballot box gave Lula 51.76%, against 48.44% in Veritá, 49.9% in Futura/100% Cidades and 49% in PoderData/Aya.

Poll × poll: Colectta of October 24, which had Lula ahead by 46.5% to 46% in total votes and 50.3% of the valid votes, was one of the four national polls with Lula in front, alongside the three Vox Brasil polls.

In summary

Lula is re-elected with 51.76% of the valid votes, in the official TSE partial count of 21:25 BRT, with 99.86% of sections, after finishing the first round behind.
The winner contract takes Lula from 16.50% to 99.85%, and the highest volume in the book is now Flávio Bolsonaro's, USD 56.18M.
On the eve, fifty of fifty-five national polls and the market had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of 25/Oct 21:22 BRT, the 25/Oct 13:39 BRT one for the Supreme Court, and reading of total volume and the inflation book at 21:31 BRT), TSE (official partial tally of the second round) and TSE registry (official electoral polls).

October 25, 2026