Editions archive

The first week of the second round widened the gap in the winner contract from 68.20pp at Monday's close to 78.50pp at Friday's, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 89.00%…

This issue covers seven days rather than five: from Monday, 28 September, to the close of the first-round count on the night of Sunday, 4 October. Closing on Fr…

The week of 21 to 25 September was a round trip in the presidential contract. At 18:00 UTC on Monday the gap between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula reached 23.80pp,…

The week of 14 to 18 September did not undo the previous week's inversion, it firmed it up, and it started out doing the opposite. At 12:30 UTC on Monday the ga…

The week of 7 to 11 September did not compress the presidential spread, it inverted it. The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential contract w…

The week of 31 August to 4 September compressed the presidential spread for the second time running, and the mechanics were the opposite of the previous week. T…

The week of August 24 to 28 recorded the largest weekly compression of the presidential spread since the series began. The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro…

The week of August 17 to 21 was the first since July in which the Brazilian presidential market moved in a sustained direction. The distance between Lula and Fl…

The Aug 10-14 window produced seven national polls and the widest dispersion this brief has ever recorded. The first-round gaps between the top two were 0pp, 4p…

Issue №11 left two scenarios written with numeric criteria, and the August 3-7 window split both down the middle. The base scenario projected that the August 5…

Issue №10 closed with a written, dated test, and the July 27-31 window returned a negative answer. That issue reported the market had begun pricing Flávio Bolso…

The week of July 20-24 answered the question Issue №9 left open, and the answer went against the market. In the winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 26.9…

Week in which market and polling moved in opposite directions on the same candidate. On presidential market, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 23.90% on Monday to 27.1…

Week of two reversals, one in price and one in data. On price, the gap Lula × Flávio opened Monday at +39.05pp, 0.50pp from the cycle record, closed Friday at +…

Week in which divergence hit a record for the entire cycle. Between June 29 and July 3 the Lula × Flávio gap moved from +32.95pp to +39.55pp (historic peak on J…

Week of the gap that opened without new voting research. Between June 22 and 26, no new national voting intention polls were released (the latest remains the Vo…

Week of the test the market didn't yield to. The June 15-19 window brought the first complete national poll since Quaest (Nexus June 15, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex…

Week of record gap at the top. Digesting the Genial/Quaest from June 10 (1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio 29%) and the reading of the 'right-wing paradox' (Flávio los…

Week of complete arc at the top: the signal is not at the final level of the gap, it's in the speed with which the market tested and rejected a thesis. On Monda…

Week of rotation within the third way: the signal is not at the top, it's in the third-place band. Renan Santos rose +3.00pp on the week (13.85% → 16.85%, with…

Week of cross-directional validation: Polymarket priced in deterioration of Flávio Bolsonaro post-Vorcaro audio between May 19-22, and Datafolha of May 22 confi…