AFOS Tradeoff
Editions archive
Editions archive14 editions published, newest to oldest.
Issue №14
Week of August 17-21, 2026
The week of August 17 to 21 was the first since July in which the Brazilian presidential market moved in a sustained direction. The distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro closed from 33.10pp to 29…
August 2026
- Issue №14Week of August 17-21, 2026→
The week of August 17 to 21 was the first since July in which the Brazilian presidential market moved in a sustained direction. The distance between Lula and Fl…
- Issue №13Week of August 10-14, 2026→
The Aug 10-14 window produced seven national polls and the widest dispersion this brief has ever recorded. The first-round gaps between the top two were 0pp, 4p…
- Issue №12Week of August 3-7, 2026→
Issue №11 left two scenarios written with numeric criteria, and the August 3-7 window split both down the middle. The base scenario projected that the August 5…
- Issue №11Week of July 27-31, 2026→
Issue №10 closed with a written, dated test, and the July 27-31 window returned a negative answer. That issue reported the market had begun pricing Flávio Bolso…
July 2026
- Issue №10Week of July 20-24, 2026→
The week of July 20-24 answered the question Issue №9 left open, and the answer went against the market. In the winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 26.9…
- Issue №9Week of July 13-17, 2026→
Week in which market and polling moved in opposite directions on the same candidate. On presidential market, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 23.90% on Monday to 27.1…
- Issue №8Week of July 6-10, 2026→
Week of two reversals, one in price and one in data. On price, the gap Lula × Flávio opened Monday at +39.05pp, 0.50pp from the cycle record, closed Friday at +…
- Issue №7Week of June 29 - July 3, 2026→
Week in which divergence hit a record for the entire cycle. Between June 29 and July 3 the Lula × Flávio gap moved from +32.95pp to +39.55pp (historic peak on J…
June 2026
- Issue №6Week of June 22-26, 2026→
Week of the gap that opened without new voting research. Between June 22 and 26, no new national voting intention polls were released (the latest remains the Vo…
- Issue №5Week of June 15-19, 2026→
Week of the test the market didn't yield to. The June 15-19 window brought the first complete national poll since Quaest (Nexus June 15, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex…
- Issue №4Week of June 9-13, 2026→
Week of record gap at the top. Digesting the Genial/Quaest from June 10 (1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio 29%) and the reading of the 'right-wing paradox' (Flávio los…
- Issue №3Week of June 2-6, 2026→
Week of complete arc at the top: the signal is not at the final level of the gap, it's in the speed with which the market tested and rejected a thesis. On Monda…
- Issue №2Week of May 26-30, 2026→
Week of rotation within the third way: the signal is not at the top, it's in the third-place band. Renan Santos rose +3.00pp on the week (13.85% → 16.85%, with…