AFOS Tradeoff
Editions archive
Editions archive17 editions published, newest to oldest.
Issue №17
Week of September 7-11, 2026
The week of 7 to 11 September did not compress the presidential spread, it inverted it. The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential contract went from 18.60pp in favour of the former…
September 2026
- Issue №17Week of September 7-11, 2026→
The week of 7 to 11 September did not compress the presidential spread, it inverted it. The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential contract w…
- Issue №16Week of August 31 - September 4, 2026→
The week of 31 August to 4 September compressed the presidential spread for the second time running, and the mechanics were the opposite of the previous week. T…
August 2026
- Issue №15Week of August NaN-NaN, 2026→
The week of August 24 to 28 recorded the largest weekly compression of the presidential spread since the series began. The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro…
- Issue №14Week of August 17-21, 2026→
The week of August 17 to 21 was the first since July in which the Brazilian presidential market moved in a sustained direction. The distance between Lula and Fl…
- Issue №13Week of August 10-14, 2026→
The Aug 10-14 window produced seven national polls and the widest dispersion this brief has ever recorded. The first-round gaps between the top two were 0pp, 4p…
- Issue №12Week of August 3-7, 2026→
Issue №11 left two scenarios written with numeric criteria, and the August 3-7 window split both down the middle. The base scenario projected that the August 5…
- Issue №11Week of July 27-31, 2026→
Issue №10 closed with a written, dated test, and the July 27-31 window returned a negative answer. That issue reported the market had begun pricing Flávio Bolso…
July 2026
- Issue №10Week of July 20-24, 2026→
The week of July 20-24 answered the question Issue №9 left open, and the answer went against the market. In the winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 26.9…
- Issue №9Week of July 13-17, 2026→
Week in which market and polling moved in opposite directions on the same candidate. On presidential market, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 23.90% on Monday to 27.1…
- Issue №8Week of July 6-10, 2026→
Week of two reversals, one in price and one in data. On price, the gap Lula × Flávio opened Monday at +39.05pp, 0.50pp from the cycle record, closed Friday at +…
- Issue №7Week of June 29 - July 3, 2026→
Week in which divergence hit a record for the entire cycle. Between June 29 and July 3 the Lula × Flávio gap moved from +32.95pp to +39.55pp (historic peak on J…
June 2026
- Issue №6Week of June 22-26, 2026→
Week of the gap that opened without new voting research. Between June 22 and 26, no new national voting intention polls were released (the latest remains the Vo…
- Issue №5Week of June 15-19, 2026→
Week of the test the market didn't yield to. The June 15-19 window brought the first complete national poll since Quaest (Nexus June 15, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex…
- Issue №4Week of June 9-13, 2026→
Week of record gap at the top. Digesting the Genial/Quaest from June 10 (1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio 29%) and the reading of the 'right-wing paradox' (Flávio los…
- Issue №3Week of June 2-6, 2026→
Week of complete arc at the top: the signal is not at the final level of the gap, it's in the speed with which the market tested and rejected a thesis. On Monda…
- Issue №2Week of May 26-30, 2026→
Week of rotation within the third way: the signal is not at the top, it's in the third-place band. Renan Santos rose +3.00pp on the week (13.85% → 16.85%, with…