Editions archive

The week of July 20-24 answered the question Issue №9 left open, and the answer went against the market. In the winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 26.9…

Week in which market and polling moved in opposite directions on the same candidate. On presidential market, Flávio Bolsonaro went from 23.90% on Monday to 27.1…

Week of two reversals, one in price and one in data. On price, the gap Lula × Flávio opened Monday at +39.05pp, 0.50pp from the cycle record, closed Friday at +…

Week in which divergence hit a record for the entire cycle. Between June 29 and July 3 the Lula × Flávio gap moved from +32.95pp to +39.55pp (historic peak on J…

Week of the gap that opened without new voting research. Between June 22 and 26, no new national voting intention polls were released (the latest remains the Vo…

Week of the test the market didn't yield to. The June 15-19 window brought the first complete national poll since Quaest (Nexus June 15, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex…

Week of record gap at the top. Digesting the Genial/Quaest from June 10 (1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio 29%) and the reading of the 'right-wing paradox' (Flávio los…

Week of complete arc at the top: the signal is not at the final level of the gap, it's in the speed with which the market tested and rejected a thesis. On Monda…

Week of rotation within the third way: the signal is not at the top, it's in the third-place band. Renan Santos rose +3.00pp on the week (13.85% → 16.85%, with…

Week of cross-directional validation: Polymarket priced in deterioration of Flávio Bolsonaro post-Vorcaro audio between May 19-22, and Datafolha of May 22 confi…