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Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

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AFOS Daily — April 25, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

Polymarket experienced the most volatile day of the cycle: three lead inversions in 24 hours. In the morning, Flávio opened a 4.15pp gap over Lula; in the afternoon, Lula retook the lead at 0.35pp; by the end of the day, Flávio was back ahead at 0.45pp. Paraná Pesquisas published the first major state poll showing Flávio ahead in Rio (47% × 40.5% in the 2º turno), replicated by six outlets. The "STF justice impeachment" market hit a new intraday cycle peak of 15.5%, retreating to 15% at close.

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed April 25 with three lead inversions on the day. In the morning, Flávio Bolsonaro opened a 4.15pp advantage (39.65% to 35.5%). In the afternoon, Lula recovered to 38.5% and Flávio ceded to 38.15% — gap of +0.35pp in favor of the president. By the end of the day, Flávio returned to 38.95% (+0.8pp in six hours) and Lula held 38.5%. The gap closed at -0.45pp in favor of Flávio. In 24 hours: gap +0.55pp Lula → +4.15pp Flávio → +0.35pp Lula → +0.45pp Flávio.

The third way had a dense day. Romeu Zema (Novo) gave back the jump and closed at 8.55% (-1.9pp in 24h, well below the 10% he crossed on April 24). Renan Santos held stable at 5.35% — completed the 8th consecutive day with no public statement. In the "third place in 1º turno" market, Caiado surged in the morning from 1.55% to 16.5% (+15pp), kept rising to 26% at midday, gave back to 23% in the afternoon, and returned to 27% at the end of the day — nearly tying Renan (28%). The largest individual variation of the cycle. Zema continued leading this market with 36% (-2.5pp in 24h).

In the "second place in 1º turno" market, the oscillation was extreme. Flávio recovered to 66% at the end. Lula fell to 16.5%. Fernando Haddad repeated the volatile pattern of the past four days: 6.1% → 0.225% → 3.35% → 2.7% → 3.2% → 2.6%. Pricing does not settle in this market.

STF justice impeachment rose 1.5pp and reached an intraday peak of 15.5% — new cycle high, surpassing the previous peak of 14%. Retreated slightly to 15% at close. Five-day trajectory: 13.5% → 11% → 12% → 12.5% → 14% → 15.5% → 15%. In the Senate, PL had its own roller coaster: dropped 4.5pp (from 82% to 77.5%) in the morning, recovered 82% in the afternoon, and closed at 80% (-2pp). União Brasil surged to 7.35% and closed at 6.15%. PSD recovered to 5.75% (+1.4pp). MDB stable at 5.1%.

In inflation expectations, the extreme tails plunged and partially returned: the 7%+ band fell from 7.2% to 3.9% in the afternoon and closed at 4.25%. The central band retreated: 5.00-5.49% fell to 38% (-2.05pp in 24h) and 4.50-4.99% fell to 37.25% (-1.75pp). The market priced less concentrated certainty in the central band at the end of the day.

2. What the institutes registered

The TSE database reached 199 polls indexed in the past 15 days — three more than yesterday. Four new Quaest were registered on April 24 (n=804, 1,104, 1,104, 1,002), all with publication scheduled for April 30. Quaest now accumulates 11 polls over the past two weeks, dominating the calendar count.

The day's headline was Paraná Pesquisas for Rio de Janeiro, published at 11:00 by six outlets: CNN Brasil, VEJA, Metrópoles, Exame, SBT News, Pleno.News, Gazeta do Povo, and Poder360. Results: 1º turno Flávio 39.6% × Lula 36.7%; 2º turno Flávio 47% × Lula 40.5% — 6.5pp advantage for Flávio in a key state. Poder360 also recorded that "nearly half of RJ voters rate Lula negatively."

Next week's calendar is the densest of the cycle. April 27 concentrates three Quaest, the second round of Paraná Pesquisas national, and the first Nexus (~6,700 respondents). April 28 brings together the AtlasIntel of 5,000 respondents, two Quaest, and three other institutes (~10,700). April 29 adds two Quaest plus NEOBE (~3,800). April 30 concentrates the four new Quaest (~4,000). Combined: about 25,300 respondents in four consecutive days — the cycle's density peak so far.

3. What the press covered

The day's agenda was crossed by three blocks: electoral inversion, institutional escalation around the STF, and right-wing coalition attempts.

Folha de S.Paulo published at 18:30 that "Flávio Bolsonaro has obstacles to overcome until the polls" — analysis on the candidate's viability despite strong regional performance. In parallel, Estadão recorded Caiado defending "convergence" of the center-right, Terra reported Flávio calling for "unity of the right", and Gazeta do Povo recorded Tarcísio criticizing "aging political class" — three different moves, all from the same camp, on the same day.

On the government side, G1 recorded Lula asking, at the opening of the PT Congress, that the party "not chase opponents." Metrópoles noted that "Lula and Flávio still have no platforms in MG and allies grow impatient" — a symmetrical situation for both leading candidates. Estadão recorded that Ciro Gomes is reconsidering running for president, with a decision expected in May.

In the Judiciary, Folha de S.Paulo published at 02:00 a story on "internal divisions in the STF" ("STF faces electoral scrutiny"). Jornal da Cidade Online reported at 12:57 that the rapporteur of the INSS parliamentary inquiry warned of a "devastating leniency deal" by Daniel Vorcaro. Paraná Central recorded at 03:00 that the STF upheld unanimously the imprisonment of the former president of BRB. SBT News published that Fachin authorized the sale of properties to bail out BRB. Deputy Marcel van Hattem (Novo) accused the STF of "wanting to choose who participates in the elections," according to Gazeta do Povo.

As a relevant side topic, Portal do Bitcoin recorded at 17:07 that Donald Trump called Polymarket a "casino" — a statement that resonates with the block applied by the Brazilian government to Kalshi and Polymarket on April 24, now replicated by more than fifteen outlets.

4. Divergences of the day

Market with itself: Polymarket priced opposing narratives three times in 24 hours (Flávio +4.15pp morning → Lula +0.35pp afternoon → Flávio +0.45pp night). The magnitude and frequency of the inversions suggest the market is still processing the Paraná RJ poll, the publication of AtlasIntel, and the right's "unity/convergence" speeches without converging on a stable reading. The isolated data of any moment of the day is not enough for a structural conclusion.

State poll × National poll: the Paraná Pesquisas RJ gave Flávio 47% × Lula 40.5% in the 2º turno — the first major state poll with Flávio ahead. Datafolha (Apr 21) and CNT (Apr 21) national polls still hold Lula in advantage (4pp and 4pp respectively). States where Bolsonaro traditionally performs well (RJ, RS, SP) are pricing one direction; the national aggregate, another.

Caiado: the jump in the "third place" market to 26% in the morning, give-back to 23% in the afternoon, and new advance to 27% at night — three opposite moves in a few hours. The largest individual variation of the cycle. Coincides with public statements about "convergence" (CBN, Apr 24, and Estadão, Apr 25), but has magnitude detached from any poll. It remains a case in which the market prices something the institutes have not captured.

In summary

Three inversions in 24 hours is the data point. The market seems to be processing simultaneously the first major state poll favorable to Flávio (Paraná RJ), the publication of the new AtlasIntel being digested by the press, and the possibility — still in formation — of a center-right coalition.
The "STF justice impeachment" market hit a new intraday cycle peak of 15.5% (retreating to 15% at close), surpassing the previous peak. The combination of "atomic bomb" (Vorcaro leniency deal), BRB imprisonment unanimously upheld, and internal divisions declared by the Supreme Court triggers the move — without any justice publicly at real impeachment risk.
The third way became plural in three days. Zema (presidential 8.55%, third place 36%), Caiado (third place 27% at close, "convergence"), Renan (presidential 5.35%, silent), and now Ciro Gomes reconsidering candidacy (Folha). If Ciro enters and Caiado consolidates, the Lula × Flávio polarization could split through the middle before the runoff.

Sources cited: Polymarket, TSE, Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, AtlasIntel, CNN Brasil, VEJA, Metrópoles, Exame, SBT News, Pleno.News, Gazeta do Povo, Poder360, Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão, Terra, G1, Jornal da Cidade Online, Paraná Central, Portal do Bitcoin.

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or via the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.