April 26, 2026

1. Prediction market

Polymarket closed April 26 with significant changes on all five fronts after two days of apparent settlement. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) fell from 38.5% to 37.5% (-1pp) — first significant drop after two days stable at 38.5%. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) rose from 38.8% to 39.15% (+0.35pp). The gap widened from 0.3pp to 1.65pp in favor of Flávio — the largest margin of the cycle in the senator's direction.

The third way had a historic inversion in the "third place in 1º turno" market. Romeu Zema (Novo) consolidated the lead at 37.5% (+1.5pp), reaching the cycle high. But the headline was Ronaldo Caiado, who overtook Renan Santos for the first time since the cycle began: rose from 26.5% to 27% (+0.5pp), while Renan plunged from 28% to 25% (-3pp). It is the first time the market prices Caiado ahead of Renan in the third-place dispute. In the presidential, Zema returned to 9.85% (+0.7pp in 24 hours), approaching 10% again. Renan held stable at 5.35% — completed the 10th consecutive day with no public statement.

The "second place in 1º turno" market gave back part of the previous day's jump: Flávio fell from 66% to 63% (-3pp). Lula rose marginally to 17% (+0.5pp). Romeu Zema rose to 4.15% (+0.8pp in 24h). Fernando Haddad continued falling: 3.2% → 2.55% → 2.4% — sixth consecutive movement. The volatility of this market on Haddad remains the highest of the cycle.

STF justice impeachment rose from 15% to 16% (+1pp) — new absolute cycle high, surpassing the previous peak of 15.5% reached on April 25. 11-day trajectory: 13.5% → 11% → 12% → 12.5% → 12.5% → 14% → 14% → 14% → 15.5% → 15% → 15% → 16%. In the Senate, the picture reorganized massively: PL recovered from 79.5% to 83.5% (+4pp). União Brasil rose to 6.85% (+0.7pp). And three parties plunged simultaneously: PSD fell from 5.95% to 3.85% (-2.1pp), MDB fell from 4.7% to 1.7% (-3pp), and PT fell from 3.6% to 1% (-2.6pp). The move suggests the market rapidly repricing a scenario of legislative polarization between PL and União Brasil.

In inflation expectations, the central band concentrated further: 5.00-5.49% rose to 40.8% (+0.85pp) and 4.50-4.99% fell to 32.75% (-2.9pp). The extreme tails oscillated lightly. The market priced less dispersion in the lower band, with a small rise in 5.50-5.99% (+0.35pp).

2. What the institutes registered

The TSE database closed Sunday with 200 polls indexed. Next week's calendar is the densest of the cycle: Apr 27 (~6,700) + Apr 28 (~10,700) + Apr 29 (~3,800) + Apr 30 (~4,000) + May 1 (~1,000) = ~26,300 respondents in five consecutive days.

The Vox Brasil for São Paulo — published at 17:00 by six outlets (Poder360, Pleno.News, Sobral Online, Revista Oeste, Gazeta do Povo, brasilnoticia.com.br) — remained the day's reference: Flávio 50.4% × Lula 38.1% in the São Paulo runoff. It is the second consecutive major state poll showing Flávio ahead, adding to the Paraná Pesquisas for Rio (47% × 40.5%) published on April 25.

In parallel, Poder360 published at 14:47 a São Paulo state survey for governor: Tarcísio at 48.2% — the highest reading for the governor in any state poll since the cycle began. Ric.com.br recorded that Quaest released the first poll for the Paraná governor's race. CartaCapital announced that the next Quaest will cover the Goiás governor and Senate. And BR104 reported that three polls were suspended in Alagoas by the Electoral Justice — a sign of TSE acting actively.

3. What the press covered

The day's agenda was crossed by three blocks: PT manifesto, "end of calm" narrative for Flávio, and legislative reorganization.

Folha de S.Paulo published at 22:12 that Haddad called Flávio Bolsonaro "Bolsonarinho" and urged Lula to "overcome past achievements." Correio Braziliense, Terra, and G1 covered in parallel the launch of the PT manifesto for 2026, with explicit nod to the center according to Terra — and without Lula present, according to G1. Blog do Esmael recorded that 90% of Lula's campaign infrastructure is set up. Poder360 reported at 20:53 that the PT counts 12 mobilized regional platforms. OpiniãoCE published at 21:14 that Camilo Santana stated "Lula will climb the ramp for the 4th time" and dismissed his own presidential candidacy — sign of the Ceará government consolidated in support.

On the right, Valor Econômico published at 14:17 an analysis pointing out that "the centrão foresees the end of calm for Flávio with Lula growing" — the tone of the piece is competitiveness returning, not consolidated tranquility for the senator. Folha de S.Paulo maintained the April 25 analysis describing the tax reform as a "minefield for Flávio." Estado de Minas recorded Flávio defending that "Pix is ours" and promising "negotiations with US and China." Poder360 recorded at 19:31 that Romeu Zema reaffirmed the promise to privatize Petrobras and Banco do Brasil if elected.

In the Judiciary, Estado de Minas reported at 11:59 that the Vorcaro family company moved R$1 billion in possible attempt to hide money, according to a report. Arquivo SA recorded that the Senate commission canceled the session that would have heard Daniel Vorcaro this Tuesday. Pleno.News published that the opposition leader requested the rejection of Jorge Messias for the STF.

As a relevant side topic, Folha de S.Paulo and Bahia Notícias reinforced the analysis that "the third way accumulates defeats and former presidential candidates turn to state elections." Gazeta do Povo recorded that Ciro Gomes decides in May between running for President or for the Ceará governor's race — direct pressure from Camilo Santana, who dismissed Ciro publicly, would complicate that decision.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Lula had the first significant drop in three days (-1pp) and the gap with Flávio widened to 1.65pp — the largest of the cycle in the senator's direction. The "STF impeachment" market hit a new absolute high (16%). Together, they are consistent signals of strengthening of the national bolsonarist camp, even though the presidential gap remains narrow.
2. Caiado overtook Renan in the "third place" market for the first time in the cycle — Renan plunged 3pp, completed the 10th day with no public statement, and was successively unseated by Zema (presidential) and now by Caiado (third place). Folha's background analysis — "former presidential candidates turn into state ones" — is starting to materialize in the market.
3. The Senate had massive reorganization: PL recovered 4pp and three parties plunged simultaneously (PSD -2.1pp, MDB -3pp, PT -2.6pp). The move suggests accelerated pricing of a scenario of legislative polarization between PL and União Brasil — now next week's heavy poll cycle (Apr 27 to May 1, ~26,300 respondents) will test whether the market is anticipating something real or overcorrecting.

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Sources cited: Polymarket, TSE, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, AtlasIntel, Poder360, Pleno.News, Sobral Online, Revista Oeste, Gazeta do Povo, brasilnoticia.com.br, Estado de Minas, Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão, Correio Braziliense, Terra, G1, Folha BV, Valor Econômico, CartaCapital, Metrópoles, Blog do Esmael, Arquivo SA, Pleno.News, Exame, Ric.com.br, Bahia Notícias, OpiniãoCE, BR104.

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or via the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.