What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 11, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket at 22:00 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro marked 41.35% (↓0.25pp from 41.60%) and Lula marked 39.50% (↓1.00pp from 40.50%), with the gap in slight expansion to +1.85pp Flávio (vs +1.10pp on May 10). Both yielded, but Lula at a rate four times higher — movement consistent with Folha de S.Paulo's reading of the Futura/Apex published on May 11.

In the 3rd place market, Zema maintained the lead at 33.50% (↓1.00pp), Renan held steady at 31.50%, Caiado SURGES 18.50% (↑2.00pp) continuing the advance of 2 consecutive days, and — new movement — Camilo Santana SURGES 4.25% (↑3.20pp), signaling fragmentation of the third-way space to the right and left. Flávio returned 1.50pp in 3rd place to 3.30%, consistent with his consolidation in 1st.

In 2nd place, Flávio consolidated 67.50% (↑1.00pp) and Lula advanced slightly to 20.00% (↑0.50pp). The STF Impeach market yielded to 15.50% (↓1.00pp from 16.50%) — exit from the May 10 peak without new triggering event in the window, technical reading of digestion after series of highs associated with Moraes' monocratic decision (May 9).

The Senate returned to full reorganization in 24h: Republicanos SURGES STRONGLY 8.15% (↑4.30pp) — largest movement of the day — likely associated with expectation of right-wing state coalition around Tarcísio; Podemos returned 5.10% (↓2.85pp), MDB advanced to 4.90% (↑0.85pp), PT recovered colossal 2.15% (↑1.90pp) from the collapse of 0.25% on May 10, and PSB returned colossal 0.75% (↓4.05pp). PL leadership remained at 82.00% (↓1.00pp slight). On 2026 inflation, the 5.00-5.49% band consolidated dominance at 36.60% (↑1.65pp) and high bands (≥6.50%) surged to 28.90% (↑2.40pp), recovering from yesterday's decline.

2. What polling institutes registered

The Futura/Apex survey published on May 11 (May 11) registered Flávio Bolsonaro with 46.9% against 44.4% of Lula in the 2º turno — empate técnico within the margin — and tie also in the 1º turno, as reported by CNN Brasil, JOTA, and Poder360. UOL Notícias, O TEMPO, and Estado de Minas expanded coverage. The same survey recorded Lula's rejection at 47.4% and Flávio's at 43.8%, as Poder360 highlighted.

Folha's Painel column also recorded data little priced by the market: 57% of voters support impeachment of STF ministers in the same Futura/Apex round. This number contrasts with Polymarket, which prices the probability of actual removal of a minister by impeachment before 2027 at 15.50%.

Next publications this week: VEJA listed two national surveys scheduled for this week, including a new round of Datafolha on Lula × Flávio (no exact date confirmed). Quaest has publication confirmed for May 13 (field May 8-11, n=2.004).## 3. What the press covered

On the institutional front, Minister Kassio Nunes Marques was drawn as rapporteur for the criminal revision presented by Bolsonaro at the STF (Estadão), as also reported by O Globo. The same Kassio officially assumed the presidency of the TSE (Terra) and will oversee the 2026 elections.

On the presidential front, Ciro Gomes ruled out running for the presidency (Terra) to run for governor of Ceará, alongside allies of Flávio (Folha) — a sign of less fragmentation in the non-PT and non-PL space.

The campaign agenda included state-level analysis by Gazeta do Povo on where Lula and Flávio are better and worse positioned and coverage of PT campaign classified as "fiscal terrorism" against Flávio (Gazeta do Povo). In the Judiciary, Folha recorded Dino defending monocratic decisions at the STF and Fachin defending the Judiciary's withdrawal from politics — two statements in opposite directions on the same day.## 4. Day's divergences

Market × survey: Polymarket prices the gap at +1.85pp for Flávio in slight expansion (vs +1.10pp on May 10), while Futura/Apex registers Lula × Flávio in Empate técnico in both rounds. Market reads the poll as consolidation of the tight race, not as reversal.

Market × institutional agenda: Futura/Apex registers 57% in favor of impeachment of STF ministers, but Polymarket prices the effective removal of any minister by impeachment through 2027 at just 15.50% (↓1.00pp). Distinction between declared opinion and probability of procedural event.

Press × third way field: Ciro Gomes withdrew from the presidential race — according to Folha, alongside Flávio allies — while Polymarket reacted with Caiado SURGES 3L 18.50% (↑2.00pp) and Camilo Santana SURGES 3L 4.25% (↑3.20pp). The space fragmented, did not consolidate.

In summary

Futura/Apex published on May 11: Empate técnico Lula × Flávio in 1º turno and 2º turno (Flávio 46.9% × Lula 44.4% in 2T), Lula rejection 47.4% × Flávio 43.8%, and 57% in favor of impeachment of STF ministers.
Polymarket prices slight Flávio expansion: Flávio 41.35% (↓0.25pp) × Lula 39.50% (↓1.00pp), gap +1.85pp (vs +1.10pp on May 10); STF Impeach 15.50% (↓1.00pp) exits the peak without new triggering event in the window.
Institutional reordering: Kassio Nunes Marques drawn as rapporteur for Bolsonaro's criminal review at the STF and sworn in as TSE president; Ciro Gomes rules out the Planalto to compete in Ceará; Caiado SURGES 18.50% (↑2.00pp) and Camilo SURGES 4.25% (↑3.20pp) in 3rd place on Polymarket.—

Sources consulted — articles with direct link to news:

Sources consulted — secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Methodology. Polymarket crosscheck (live prices via gamma API — Brazil presidential, 2nd place, 3rd place, STF impeach, Senate, 2026 inflation), electoral surveys published on D-0 (Futura/Apex) and registered with TSE, and day's journalistic coverage. Point variations (pp) compared to snapshot from May 10, 22:00 BRT. Each factual claim appears with inline link to primary source. Synthesis generated by AFOS Analytics and reviewed before publication.