What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 27, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

The aggregate volume of the 6 Brazil 2026 markets monitored by AFOS Analytics reaches USD 93.49M accumulated on May 27 (presidential $89.20M, 2L $3.59M, 3L $0.31M, Senate $0.25M, STF impeach $0.08M, inflation $0.06M), with an increase of USD 0.95M in 24h. The presidential on Polymarket closed the day with Lula at 40.50% (vol USD 5.93M accumulated, STABLE 24h), Flávio Bolsonaro at 28.75% (vol USD 6.08M, ↓0.10pp 24h) and Renan Santos at 14.15% (vol USD 5.98M, ↑0.30pp 24h). Lula × Flávio gap at +11.75pp, with slight widening of 0.10pp in 24h.

The most significant movement of the day among active candidates was the Haddad correction: ↓0.90pp to 5.75% (vol USD 5.17M), undoing about half of the spike of ↑1.80pp recorded on May 26. Zema retreats for the 2nd consecutive day: 3.45% (↓0.80pp 24h, vol USD 3.01M) — movement consistent with the day's political news. Caiado remains stable at 1.75% (vol USD 3.37M). The aggregate reading is compression of the third-way tail in the presidential after two days of redistribution.

In the simulated runoff (2L), Flávio Bolsonaro expands absolute leadership to 59.50% (↑1.50pp 24h, vol USD 59K) — the sub-market prices second place as practically guaranteed despite recent institutional episodes. Renan consolidates 2L at 18.80% (↑0.55pp 24h, vol USD 1.01M). In the third round (3L), **Renan surges to 37.50% (↑2.50pp 24h, vol USD 72K) — gap to Zema 3L widened to +19.00pp from +11.00pp on May 26. Zema 3L plummets to 18.50% (↓5.50pp 24h, vol USD 12K) — Haddad emerges in the sub-market at 16.35%, a signal that the market begins to contemplate the PT as third place should the Bolsonarist camp regroup.

In the STF impeach market priced 6.05% (vol USD 79K, ↓0.70pp 24h) — first consistent downward correction after a week of gains, with no specific STF event on the day to justify it. In the Senate there was an atypical movement: PL retreats to 64.00% (↓8.50pp 24h vs 72.50%, vol USD 243K), MDB rises to 15.30% (↑2.75pp), União Brasil stable at 12.55% — redistribution of the Senate slate in a single day.

In 2026 inflation there was a tail spike on the high end: the 6.00%–5.99% range surges to 25.45% (↑20.50pp 24h vs 4.95% on May 26), while the 5.00%–5.49% range loses leadership at 31.50% (↓9.75pp 24h); range 5.50%–5.99% maintains 31.30%. Combined tail ≥6.50% declines to 5.90%. Signal of fiscal risk priced with greater intensity, with no clear editorial anchor on the day to isolate the cause — possible digestion of the set of macro news accumulated in the week.

2. What the institutes recorded

The survey that anchors the day is the Indexa Pesquisas, published on May 27 via JOTA: 1st round Lula 39% × Flávio 30% (gap +9pp), 2nd round Lula 46% × Flávio 41% (gap +5pp). It is the second Tier 1+2 cycle round to confirm +9pp gap in the 1º turno, closing methodological convergence with Datafolha of May 22 (1st round 40×31). Indexa is a TSE-registered institute, not Tier 1 (credibility 3, confidence 0.7), but the coincidence with Datafolha in two consecutive rounds strengthens the directional signal. In parallel, the headline from Real Time Big Data via plantaobrasil.net sustains Lula's favoritism with chances of victory in a single round, an ambitious reading that still needs Datafolha on May 28 for validation.

The aggregate of surveys registered at the TSE reached 308 total surveys (vs 297 on May 26), with 62 from the recent window (last 15 days). Veritá continues to dominate volume with 19 active field surveys (vs 10 on May 26), all state-level with samples 1,000–3,300. Real Time Big Data registered 5 surveys, AtlasIntel 3, Vox Brasil 3. Expanded movement in state-level surveys is consistent with the approaching deadlines for release in Pernambuco, Goiás, Sergipe, and other units in the June calendar.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at the TSE with publication expected between May 28 and June 3. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 28	Datafolha 🔥	1,022	state-level	BR042422026	0.8
May 28	AtlasIntel	1,000	state-level	BR065942026	0.8
May 28	Ideia/Canal Meio	1,500	state-level	BR029182026	0.6
May 28	Anova Pesquisa	2,000	state-level	BR068762026	0.7
May 29	PoderData	2,400	state-level	BR048822026	0.7
May 29	Media Inteligência	2,000	state-level	BR079092026	0.7
May 29	Veritá	2,020	state-level	BR027852026	0.7
May 30	Opinião Estatística	1,000	state-level	BR075352026	0.6
May 30	Anova Pesquisa	2,000	state-level	BR048462026	0.7
May 30	Vox Brasil	1,480	state-level	BR087942026	0.6
May 31	Vox Brasil	2,100	state-level	BR095392026	0.7
May 31	SETA Pesquisa	1,500	state-level	BR018782026	0.6
June 1	Real Time Big Data 🔥	2,000	state-level	BR058642026	0.9
June 1	Veritá (various)	1,030–2,030	state-level	BR040702026 and others	0.6–0.7
June 1	AGORASEI	1,500	state-level	BR056712026	0.6

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights Tier 1 surveys or samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. Datafolha on May 28 is the key test of the week: will confirm or contest the convergence observed with Indexa on May 27.

3. What the press covered

The agenda of May 27 is divided between the Trump-Flávio-White House effect and the reorganization of the third-way board. G1 reported that Donald Trump praised Lula during a meeting with Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House — an episode circulating in video and treated as a slip of the tongue that neutralizes the narrative gain of the visit recorded on May 26. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Trump's post-meeting silence contrasts with the treatment given to presidential candidates from other countries, and BBC analyzes the visit as a "trump card with an alert about the White House's role in the election".

The second axis of the day was the meeting between Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema in São Paulo to discuss an alliance in 2026, recorded by O Globo and Folha. Caiado stated to O Globo that "there is the sentiment" for the alliance and Zema signaled that he could take the vice position on the ticket. Polymarket immediately priced the move: Zema fell 0.80pp in the presidential race and dropped 5.50pp in the 3L; Caiado remained stable.

The Banco Master/Vorcaro front advanced in two directions. CBN, via Leandro Resende's column reported that allies consider Cláudio Castro's candidacy for the Senate in RJ unfeasible after the new PF operation, with PL now re-evaluating names — a direct outcome of the Rioprevidência → Master operation recorded on May 26 by O Globo. In parallel, the portal Cadaminuto reports that Deputy Dra. Eudócia denounced Renan Calheiros in the Senate for acting "as lawyer for Daniel Vorcaro" — the allegation has not yet been replicated in prestige outlets as of close of business, citation here is observational.

On the legislative front, the PEC ending the 6x1 work schedule advanced in committee (O Liberal May 27), with rejection of PL's amendment for immediate implementation, and PL prepares campaign (Poder360 May 27) to blame the Lula government for rejecting the 4x3 schedule proposal. The move signals that the opposition is now defending a reactive position on a labor agenda that would traditionally be captured by the left.

4. Daily divergences

Market × research: Indexa and Datafolha now converge on a +9pp gap in the 1º turno between Lula and Flávio, but Polymarket prices a larger gap of +11.75pp. The sustained distance between the market and institutes with solid sample persists through the second window of the cycle — the most consistent signal so far of directional bias in Polymarket vs. Tier 1+2 research.

Market × narrative: Polymarket immediately priced the Caiado-Zema alliance (Zema ↓0.80pp presidential, ↓5.50pp 3L), but kept Flávio Bolsonaro virtually unchanged (↓0.10pp) despite Trump-praises-Lula convergence + PF-buries-Castro-Senate-RJ + Renan-Calheiros-indicted. The market prices the fundamentals of Flávio's candidacy as stable in the short term despite daily editorial wear.

Sub-market × current events: The spike in the high tail of 2026 inflation (range 6.00%–6.49% rises ↑20.50pp in 24h) has no isolated macroeconomic event on the day to justify it. Possible cumulative digestion of macro news from the week or technical movement in a very low-activity market (total inflation vol $0.06M).—

In summary

Indexa Pesquisas (May 27) confirms Datafolha (May 22) with same +9pp gap in 1º turno between Lula (39%) and Flávio (30%), second round of Tier 1+2 sustaining convergence. Datafolha of May 28 is the week's key test.
Polymarket stabilizes top of ticket (Lula 40.50% / Flávio 28.75%) and shifts movement to sub-markets: 3L Renan surges 37.50%, Zema 3L plummets 18.50%, PL Senate declines 8.50pp, 2026 inflation rises tail 6%+ in 20.50pp.
Caiado-Zema meeting in São Paulo priced immediately by market: Zema becomes possible running mate in Caiado ticket, loses ground in presidential race and in 3L Polymarket. Trump praises Lula during meeting with Flávio at White House — slip neutralizes narrative gain from May 26.

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched May 27, 18:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral research).

Cited sources: Polymarket, TSE (public registry), O Globo, G1, Folha de S.Paulo, BBC News Brasil, CBN, JOTA, Cadaminuto, O Liberal, Poder360, plantaobrasil.net (Real Time Big Data), Indexa Pesquisas (published via JOTA), Datafolha (May 22 prior round reverberating).

Method: Synthesis generated with AI assistance crossing prediction market data, research registered with TSE, and editorial coverage. Each factual claim links directly to primary source. Method source and open code at afos-analytics.com.

History: Synthesis from May 26 available at /en/daily/2026-05-26. Full archive at /en/daily.