May 28, 2026

1. Prediction market

The aggregate volume of the 6 Brazil 2026 markets monitored by AFOS Analytics reaches USD 91.20M cumulative as of May 28 (presidential ≈USD 89.90M, 2L USD 1.71M, 3L USD 0.32M, Senate USD 0.24M, STF impeach USD 0.08M, inflation USD 0.06M). The presidential on Polymarket closed the afternoon with Lula at 41.50% (vol USD 5.96M cumulative, ↑1.00pp 24h) — first reading above 41.5% in the recent cycle — Flávio Bolsonaro at 28.65% (vol USD 6.08M, ↓0.10pp 24h) and Renan Santos at 15.05% (vol USD 6.03M, ↑0.90pp 24h) crossing the 15% threshold. Lula × Flávio gap widens to +12.85pp (↑1.10pp 24h), because Lula rises without Flávio declining at the same intensity.

Among active candidates, Haddad recovers to 6.20% (vol USD 5.21M, ↑0.45pp 24h), Zema yields for the 3rd consecutive day to 2.85% (vol USD 3.10M, ↓0.60pp 24h) and Caiado yields to 1.45% (vol USD 3.41M, ↓0.30pp 24h) post-meeting with Zema May 27 — market did not price the possible Caiado-Zema slate as a gain in individual probability. Michelle Bolsonaro yields 1.65% (↓1.25pp 24h, vol USD 6.81M cumulative) — narrative of internal replacement in the PL field cools after mid-May publication by Meio/Ideia.

In the simulated runoff (2L), Flávio maintains absolute leadership at 60.50% (↑1.00pp 24h, vol USD 0.06M), Renan yields to 17.35% (↓1.45pp 24h, vol USD 1.01M) and Lula 2L at 10.50% (↓0.50pp). In the third round (3L), Renan surges to 41.00% (↑3.50pp 24h, vol USD 0.07M) — gap to Zema 3L widened to +25.00pp versus +19pp on May 27. Zema 3L yields to 16.00% (↓2.50pp), Caiado 3L to 12.50% (↓1.00pp), and Haddad 3L corrects to 7.75% (↓8.60pp vs 16.35% previous day, canceling anomalous spike on May 27).

In STF impeach the market priced 5.45% (vol USD 0.08M, ↓0.60pp 24h) — second consecutive day of downward correction after a week of gains. In Senate, PL yields for the second consecutive day to 58.50% (↓5.50pp 24h vs 64.00% on May 27; total ↓14pp in 48h vs 72.50% on May 26; vol USD 0.24M). PSD recovers to 18.30% (↑1.85pp), MDB stable at 15.30% and União Brasil stable at 12.25% — Senate slate redistribution continues after the operation that ended Castro's candidacy in RJ on May 27.

In 2026 inflation the 6%+ tail spike observed on May 26-27 normalizes: the 6.00%–6.49% band retreats to 17.85% (↓7.60pp 24h vs 25.45% previous day), the 5.50%–5.99% band retreats to 21.40% (↓9.90pp), and the modal band 5.00%–5.49% resumes leadership at 30.60%. Combined tail ≥6.50% at 6.15%. The movement confirms that the May 26-27 anomaly was transitory pricing, not a structural signal of materialized fiscal risk.

2. What the institutes registered

The national survey of the day is Meio/Ideia BR-02918/2026, fieldwork May 23-27, n=1.500, margin of error ±2.5pp, 95% confidence, per coverage by Poder360, CNN Brasil, Gazeta do Povo, Folha de S.Paulo, JB and Correio Braziliense on May 28. In the main first round, Lula 38.5% × Flávio 31.5% (gap +7pp), with Caiado 5.5%, Zema 2.4% and Renan 2.1%. In the main runoff, Lula 46.5% × Flávio 41.4% (gap +5.1pp) — reversal relative to the previous round by the same institute (early May), in which Flávio led numerically 45.3% × 44.7%. Flávio declines measured in the Meio/Ideia breakdown: −19pp among high-income voters, −18pp among center-right voters, −16pp among young voters; 60.4% report having had contact with the "Dark Horse" case. The survey is the 3rd Tier 1+2 round of the cycle in the same direction, after Datafolha May 22 (gap +9pp 1st round, +4pp 2nd round) and Indexa May 27 (gap +9pp 1st round, +5pp 2nd round).

The Datafolha BR042422026 scheduled in the TSE calendar for today May 28 (n=1.022, credibility 5) was not effectively released until 16:30 BRT, although it appears registered with publication scheduled for the date — AFOS follows the "registered ≠ released" rule and does not cite numbers before confirmation by primary press source. Analysis by Valor Econômico based on AtlasIntel series highlighted on May 28 that Lula is the highest-rated presidential candidate and Flávio the worst — evaluation breakdown that reinforces the asymmetry observed in the three Tier 1+2 surveys of the week. The next round scheduled for the week is PoderData (n=2.400) with publication scheduled for May 29.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication scheduled between May 29 and June 4. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1.000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS Analytics API. No sample ≥ 3.000 in the 7-day window. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers. State surveys predominate in the next week, with the national PoderData May 29 as the highlight.

3. What the press covered

The institutional event of the day is the Chamber's approval of the end of the 6x1 work schedule, with the proposal moving to the Senate. BBC News Brasil treated it as a "historic day"; JOTA and Folha de S.Paulo reported on the accomplished coordination between the Planalto and the Chamber president, Hugo Motta, scheduled since the May 26 meeting. The agenda has broad popular support and moves the PL opposition into a reactive position — the party had been preparing, according to Poder360 on May 27, a campaign to blame the government for rejecting the alternative 4x3 schedule.

Flávio Bolsonaro maintains his international strategy following the White House visit on May 26: Folha de S.Paulo reported on May 28 that he continues pressing Trump to treat PCC and CV as terrorist organizations, and BBC News Brasil analyzed what would happen if the American president actually made the declaration — the analysis highlights the diplomatic risks and lack of direct legal instrument. In O Globo, an analysis of political coordination highlights that "Lula errs in coordination in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the two largest electoral colleges in the country" — negative weight in a tier-1 outlet that counterbalances the 6x1 victory.

PSB launched Márcio França as pre-candidate for Senate from São Paulo and the proposal was taken to Lula (G1), a move that attempts to address precisely the criticism about SP coordination. In the center third way, CNN Brasil reported that Aécio Neves conditions his presidential candidacy on alliances, signaling additional fragmentation in the Aécio/PSDB-Cidadania space after formal invitation announced on May 27. In institutional financial matters, InfoMoney reported a JPMorgan note (authored by Cassiana Fernandez) projecting high volatility in Brazilian stocks with a tight election — a reading that maintains caution despite the three Tier 1+2 polls converging on a Lula advantage.

A column by Mario Rosa in Poder360 brings the phrase "Lula 4, Neymar 4, the number 10 of the national team and his hand on the cup in 2026" — a narrative signal of an incumbent with recognized traction in public opinion. The May 27 Caiado-Zema meeting continues to resonate: VEJA treats it as "the right in crisis" seeking unity to isolate Flávio, and G1 (Andreia Sadi) reported that there is still no definition of who would be the top of the ticket, with Folha de S.Paulo reporting that Zema signaled he could be vice president. On the institutional front, O Globo covered how operations on Vorcaro "bring back zombies from other investigations" — the Master case remains background noise with no acute event on May 28.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Three Tier 1+2 surveys of the week converge on Lula advantage in the runoff between +4pp and +5.1pp (Datafolha · Indexa · Meio/Ideia) — the gap captures the "Dark Horse" effect (Flávio-Vorcaro audios released May 13), with Meio/Ideia explicitly showing drops of −19pp in high income, −18pp in center-right and −16pp in youth. Datafolha BR042422026 expected for today at the TSE was not released.
2. Chamber approves end of 6x1 shift and proposal moves to Senate — institutional victory of the Lula-Motta coordination scheduled for May 26, which moves PL to a reactive position on an agenda with broad popular support. Flávio maintains international bet (PCC/CV terrorists) without achieved institutional gain.
3. Polymarket: Lula 41.50% crosses the 41.5% threshold, gap widens to +12.85pp, more than twice the runoff gap of the week's surveys. PL Senate yields for the second consecutive day (↓14pp in 48h) pricing loss of state reach after the operation that buried the Castro RJ candidacy on May 27. 2026 inflation normalizes the 6%+ tail spike from May 26-27.

Sources consulted

Articles with direct link to the story

• O Globo · PSDB-Cidadania announces invitation for Aécio Neves to run for President
• G1 (Andreia Sadi) · Caiado and Zema discuss the possibility of joining candidacies
• Folha de S.Paulo · Caiado and Zema meet to discuss alliance, and ex-governor of Goiás signals he could be vice president
• VEJA (José Casado) · Right in crisis: Caiado and Zema want unity to isolate Flávio Bolsonaro
• Gazeta do Povo · Check the numbers of the Meio/Ideia survey for president

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to the article)

• BBC News Brasil — End of 6x1 shift is approved in Chamber and proposal goes to Senate: 'Historic day'
• BBC News Brasil — What happens if Trump declares PCC and CV terrorists, as Flávio Bolsonaro wants?
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lula opens advantage over Flávio in runoff after 'Dark Horse' case, says Meio Ideia
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio insists that Trump treat CV and PCC as terrorists to try to corner Lula in the election
• CNN Brasil — Meio/Ideia: Lula leads all scenarios of first and second round
• CNN Brasil — To CNN, Aécio conditions presidential candidacy to alliances
• InfoMoney — JPMorgan continues seeing tight election and projects high volatility in stocks in Brazil
• Poder360 (column Mario Rosa) — Lula 4, Neymar 4, the No. 10 of the squad and the hand on the trophy in 2026
• O Globo — Lula errs in articulation in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, two largest electoral constituencies in the country
• O Globo — Master: Operations on Vorcaro bring back zombies of other investigations
• Brasil de Fato — Lula leads all scenarios and opens five points over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, says Meio/Ideia survey
• Correio Braziliense — Meio/Ideia: Lula leads in runoff with 46%; Flávio Bolsonaro has 41%—

Method: AFOS Analytics crosses Polymarket (accumulated USD volume and price), Brazilian electoral polls registered with the TSE, and national press coverage. Open-source Apache 2.0. Dataset at github.com/AFOS-Analytics/afos-analitica-2026. Dashboard at afos-analytics.com.