What is AFOS Analytics?

AFOS Analytics is a global electoral intelligence platform that cross-references real-money prediction markets (Polymarket), polls from 17+ institutes, live news, and strategic analysis in real time.

Is AFOS Analytics free?

Yes. Access to the platform is completely free, with no registration required. The project is open source.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on future events. Unlike opinion polls, they reflect where people put their money — historically more accurate than traditional polls.

Which elections does AFOS monitor?

AFOS monitors elections in 14+ countries, including Brazil 2026, USA, France, Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, and more.

How is the data updated?

Prediction market data is updated every 30 minutes via cron job. News is updated every 30 minutes. Analysis is updated manually with source cross-referencing.

AFOS Daily — May 29, 2026

Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT

1. Prediction market

The presidential market closed May 29 with Lula at 40.50% (USD 5.98M), down 1.00pp in 24 hours — a complete reversal of the gain recorded the previous day, when the market had reached 41.50% for the first time in the cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro remains at 28.65% (USD 6.10M), stable in the intraday comparison. The result is a reduction in the gap between the two to +11.85pp, from +12.85pp on May 28 — a narrowing caused entirely by Lula's decline, not by movement from Flávio Bolsonaro.

Renan Santos consolidates third place with 15.60% (USD 6.08M), up 0.55pp and fourth consecutive day of gains. Haddad recovers slightly to 6.45% (USD 5.23M) (↑0.25pp), while Zema loses for the fourth consecutive day to 2.75% (USD 3.12M) (↓0.10pp, total ↓2.30pp over four days). Caiado retreats to 1.35% (USD 3.45M) (↓0.10pp). Michelle continues to lose ground as a replacement narrative: 1.05% (USD 6.89M), down 0.60pp in 24 hours and a total of 1.85pp in 48 hours — a hollowing out that potentially opens a right-wing outsider space for Renan Santos.

In the Senate sub-market, the day's highlight was PL: 67.50% (USD 242k), with a jump of 9.00pp in 24 hours and a reversal of the losses from the previous 48 hours. PSD declines to 16.50% (↓1.80pp 24h), MDB stable at 15.35%, PT holds 2.90%. Podemos appears at 22.10% but with structurally low volume (USD 1k accumulated) — technical reading as an anomaly priced by thin liquidity, not a directional signal. STF impeach remains at 5.45% (USD 79k), third consecutive day unchanged, despite new investigative activity documented by Valor regarding Flávio Bolsonaro (see Section 3).

The 2026 inflation reopened fat tails simultaneously across all bands: 5.00-5.49% range surges to 37.75% (↑7.15pp 24h), 5.50-5.99% rises to 25.60% (↑4.20pp), 6.00-6.49% recovers to 22.25% (↑4.40pp), and the ≥7% tail returns to 4.35%. The symmetric movement across all bands suggests repricing of uncertainty, not directional migration to the extreme tail — a signal consistent with the Ibovespa decline recorded today (see Section 3).

2. What polling institutes recorded

The survey published on May 29 was PoderData/AYA (TSE protocol BR048822026, n=2,400, fieldwork from May 25 to 28), released by CNN Brasil, Revista Oeste, Estado de Minas and Gazeta do Povo. The survey points to a Empate técnico in the 2º turno between Lula and four opponents simultaneously — Flávio Bolsonaro, Joaquim Barbosa, Caiado and Zema. It is the first Tier 1+2 of the cycle to signal a scenario less favorable to Lula in the second round, in direct contrast with Datafolha May 22 (gap +4pp), Indexa May 27 (+5pp) and Meio/Ideia May 28 (+5.1pp). PoderData's credibility is 3 in AFOS scoring (below Datafolha/AtlasIntel), but the institute is registered with the TSE and the release was confirmed by more than one independent primary source.

On the same day, AtlasIntel RN indicated PT candidates ahead for governor and Senate in Rio Grande do Norte, according to coverage by CartaCapital, Revista Fórum and Poder360, and Jamildo reported that Lula opened a 32pp lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in Pernambuco. The aggregate reading comes from JOTA Agregador May 29, which computes "Lula's favoritism grows and reaches peak in this electoral cycle", synthesizing 11 institutes. The internal divergence in the Tier 1+2 basket between the aggregator and PoderData/AYA on the same day is an element of editorial reading — it signals methodological dispersion around the second round.

The Datafolha BR042422026 remains without effective release 7 days after TSE registration — a situation that reaffirms the rule "registered ≠ published", in effect since the May 15 incident.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between May 30 and June 5. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
May 30	Vox Brasil	1.480	National	BR087942026	0.6
May 31	Vox Brasil	2.100	National	BR095392026	0.7
June 1	Real Time Big Data	2.000	National	BR058642026	0.9
June 2	Real Time Big Data	1.600	National	BR090482026	0.8
June 2	Veritá	1.525	National	BR021912026	0.6
June 3	Paraná Pesquisas	1.000	National	BR059472026	0.8
June 3	EXATUS	1.500	National	BR016592026	0.6

Source: public TSE registry via AFOS Analytics API. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The international event of the day was the United States decision to classify the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV) as terrorist organizations, with heavy and simultaneous coverage by BBC News Brasil, G1, O Globo, Estadão, Valor Econômico and Folha de S.Paulo. The measure had been publicly requested by Flávio Bolsonaro on May 28. Estadão (Lourival Sant'Anna) read it as "Trump gives his contribution to Flávio Bolsonaro's agenda, which Lula will have difficulty countering". Repercussion on social networks registered over 7 million interactions, according to VEJA. The Brazilian government reacted defensively: O Globo and Valor reported that ministers assess legal, banking and reputational risk for Brazilian companies, including possible impact on Pix.

Three direct mitigating factors were registered in the same coverage. First, the U.S. State Department spokesman denied Flávio's influence on the decision and stated that "the president of Brazil is the choice of Brazilians" — cited by G1 and Estadão. Second, Valor published that, according to specialized consulting, "the U.S. decision helps Flávio Bolsonaro on social networks, but does not reverse the Master crisis". Third, the same Valor reported that the PF sent an opinion to the Attorney General's Office to investigate a shipment by Vorcaro to the United States made at Flávio's request — opening a new direct investigative front against the senator. Folha also registered that "Lula's allies accuse Flávio of orchestrating U.S. interference, and Boulos speaks of militia", and Valor synthesized the presidential strategy as "Lula bets on 'round two' of the tariff increase by accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of 'traitor'". Backstage reported by O Globo indicates that the mention of the Bolsonaro family in an official government statement was suggested by marketer Sidônio and approved by Lula.

On the internal articulation front, Rodrigo Pacheco confirmed he will not run for governor of Minas and announced "closure of a cycle", ending his political career, according to coverage by G1, Estadão, Gazeta do Povo and Folha PE. O Globo registered that, "with Pacheco's refusal to run, the PT president will go to Minas to try to make a new ticket viable" — direct frustration for Lula in the second largest electoral college. Cláudio Castro also confirmed he is withdrawing his Senate candidacy for Rio, in coverage by Congresso em Foco, JOTA, VEJA and O Globo; Rogério Marinho stated he found out about the withdrawal from the press, and VEJA reported that the PL will now pay Castro a salary. Minister Fux of the STF denied Douglas Ruas' request to assume interim government of Rio, according to O Globo, Valor and VEJA.

Other movements: Caiado stated that the U.S. decision on the factions "should have been made earlier by the Brazilian government itself" (G1) — a positioning that comes 24 hours after Flávio publicly requested it, with the media attributing the agenda's prominence to the latter. Haddad tried to stick the decision on Tarcísio: "they shot themselves in the foot" (O Globo). Eduardo Leite, from Novo, stated that "there is room for an alternative" after the crisis involving Flávio with Vorcaro (VEJA). VEJA also registered a nod from Ciro Gomes to Aécio's presidential aspirations — additional fragmentation of the center space. G1 and Valor revealed that RioPrevidência was the sole investor in two funds linked to Banco Master, according to the PF, expanding the case to the state of Rio. Valor registered that the Ibovespa fell with rebalancing, with the largest monthly drop since February 2023, and Aneel maintained the yellow flag in June. Lula reaffirmed in interviews that he will resubmit Jorge Messias' nomination to the STF after rejection, according to Portal iG and ac24horas.

4. Divergencies of the day

Market × survey of the day: PoderData/AYA May 29 signals Empate técnico in the 2º turno in four scenarios (CNN, Oeste, Estado de Minas) — tighter reading than Datafolha May 22 (+4pp), Indexa May 27 (+5pp) and Meio/Ideia May 28 (+5.1pp). Polymarket reduced Lula × Flávio gap by 1.00pp but keeps Lula at 40.50% and Flávio at 28.65% — distance still wide compared to Empate técnico signaled by the survey. The credit weight of the market for PoderData/AYA is lower than for Tier 1, but the simultaneous publication introduced detectable methodological dispersion in JOTA aggregator from the same day.

Market × international event: USA classified PCC and CV as terrorist organizations (BBC, G1, O Globo, Estadão), delivering banner that Flávio requested publicly on May 28. Polymarket Flávio remained stable at 28.65% — without pricing probabilistic gain from the discursive victory. Possible simultaneous readings: (a) market accounted for the three mitigants — USA spokesperson denies Flávio influence, Valor says it does not reverse Master crisis, and PF investigates Vorcaro remittance to USA at Flávio's request (Valor); (b) narrative gain is difficult to convert into probability of presidential victory in the short term. PL Senate, in contrast, rose 9.00pp to 67.50% on the same day — sub-market reflected institutional reorganization more quickly than the presidential.

Macro × politics: 2026 inflation opened fat tail across all bands simultaneously (5.00-5.49% shoots 37.75%, ↑7.15pp 24h; 5.50-5.99% rises 25.60%, ↑4.20pp; 6.00-6.49% recovers 22.25%, ↑4.40pp) without specific macro event of the day. Signal compatible with Ibovespa declining on rebalancing (Valor) and largest monthly decline since February/2023 — reading as repricing of generalized macro uncertainty, possibly correlated with intensified political volatility from the combination of Pacheco out of MG + USA decision + PoderData/AYA.

In summary

Polymarket returns the previous day's gains — Lula 40.50% (↓1.00pp), Flávio 28.65% (↔), gap narrows to +11.85pp. Fourth consecutive day of gains for Renan (15.60%, ↑0.55pp). Fourth day of decline for Zema (2.75%, ↓0.10pp). Michelle loses 1.85pp in 48 hours and the substitution narrative empties out.
PoderData/AYA ties 2º turno in four scenarios (CNN, Oeste, EM) — first Tier 1+2 of the cycle with less favorable reading for Lula, in direct dispersion with JOTA Aggregator from the same day that records Lula favoritism at peak. Datafolha BR042422026 continues undisclosed 7 days after registration.
USA classifies PCC/CV as terrorists (discursive victory Flávio) + Pacheco ends political career in MG (direct impact Lula) — two structural events with opposite signals on the same day. PL Senate recovers 67.50% (↑9.00pp) reflecting institutional reorganization faster than the presidential. PF opens new direct investigative front on Flávio via Vorcaro remittance to USA (Valor).

Sources consulted

Articles with direct link to news

O Globo · Haddad tenta colar decisão de classificar PCC e CV como terroristas em Tarcísio: 'Deram um tiro no pé'
G1 · Ciro Gomes declara apoio a eventual candidatura de Aécio Neves ao Planalto
Folha de S.Paulo · Pacheco diz que não disputará o Governo de Minas e anuncia saída da política
Folha de S.Paulo · Aliados de Lula acusam Flávio de articular interferência dos EUA, e Boulos fala em milícia
Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro comemora decisão dos EUA sobre CV e PCC e ataca Lula
Folha de S.Paulo · Lula diz que vai reenviar indicação de Messias para o STF
Folha de S.Paulo · PT avança com Josué Gomes ao governo de MG, mas Lula quer 'aparar arestas'

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

Method: AFOS Analytics cross-references Polymarket (accumulated USD volume and price), Brazilian electoral polls registered with the TSE, and national press coverage. Open Source Apache 2.0. Dataset at github.com/AFOS-Analytics/afos-analitica-2026. Dashboard at afos-analytics.com.