June 6, 2026

1. Prediction market

On June 6, the Polymarket registered light correction after a three-day decline for Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula returned part of recent gains and fell to 40.50% (USD 6.16M), ↓1.0pp in 24h, while Flávio remained practically stable at 28.15% (USD 6.43M), ↓0.05pp. The gap between the two narrowed from +13.30pp to +12.35pp, but remains the widest in the recent cycle and above the level prior to the June 2 reversal. With no clear market event in the window, AFOS reads the movement as technical correction after Lula's series of gains, not as trend reversal.

The third way remained at floor with internal reallocation. Renan Santos rose to 16.70% (USD 6.62M), ↑0.3pp, maintaining third position in the presidential market. Fernando Haddad recovered to 3.25% (USD 5.56M), ↑0.6pp, retaking the position he had returned the previous day; Zema fell to 3.05% (USD 3.47M), ↓0.2pp, and Caiado to 1.95% (USD 3.87M), ↓0.4pp. In the market for second place in the first round, Flávio leads by a wide margin, 62.50% (USD 61k), with Renan in second, 18.35% (USD 1.01M). In the market for third place, Renan is the favorite, 44.50% (USD 76k).

In institutional markets, the impeachment contract for STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 5.25% (USD 80k), low volume that calls for cautious reading. In the Senate market, PL remains dominant, 73.50% (USD 243k). In the 2026 inflation contract, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% concentrates the highest probability (26.90%), but the tail equal to or above 6% thickened, with ranges of 6.00% to 6.99% priced between 19% and 23%. The accumulated volume of the presidential market is around USD 96M.

2. What the institutes registered

No new national poll released on June 6. The reference remains Vox Brasil released on June 5 (n=2.100, field from June 1–3, margin of ±2.15pp, TSE protocol BR-08016/2026), which measured, in the first round, Lula 42.1% × Flávio 33.6%, a gap of +8.5pp, and, in the runoff, Lula 47.8% × 41.3%, with Lula technically tied with Caiado and Zema. The survey echoed throughout the day in outlets such as Correio Braziliense and Jornal de Uberaba, which highlighted Lula technically tied with Caiado and Zema in the runoff.

Quaest released on June 6 a survey of government approval in ten states, of state scope and without national presidential scenario. By AFOS criterion, in which only surveys of national scope enter the panel, it does not alter the dashboard series. The flow of TSE registrations on the day was entirely state-level.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication expected between June 7–13. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. No national scope survey registered for the window; all are state-level. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The agenda on June 6 centered on framing the tariff hikes as a political cost for the opposition. The Intercept Brasil coined the term "Tariflávio", arguing that Flávio's visit to Trump became an "own goal" after the United States taxed Brazilian products and targeted Pix; according to the report, 78% of interactions on the topic on social networks had negative sentiment. This is a narrative development of the tariff hikes already underway, not a new market fact.

On social media data, Exame registered Flávio in decline in social media rankings after the audio with Vorcaro, with Lula in the lead, while CNN Brasil, citing Datrix, pointed out Zema jumping 56% in mentions, still behind Flávio and Lula. The audio in question, in which Flávio negotiates with Vorcaro resources to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro, is from May 13; the numbers from June 6 measure the development, not a new leak.

On the alignment front, O Globo showed pre-candidates allied with Lula and Flávio modulating their tone about the United States to avoid exposing their backers, and Metrópoles registered the government viewing the Brazilian election as a test for Trump in Latin America. Exame heard from a political scientist for whom Trump could "help" Lula, but is an unpredictable variable in the election.

On the institutional front, the judicial front of the Banco Master case remains underway since June 5, with Flávio's request for Moraes to be declared biased and Fachin's denial of Nunes Marques's removal from the CPI reporting, with no new fact on June 6. Folha de S.Paulo registered that the revision of the Clean Record law generates uncertainties and strains the electoral scenario in the states, and Estadão pointed out that the pre-campaigns of Lula and Flávio already generate four times more actions at the TSE, amid the advance of artificial intelligence.

4. Day's Divergences

In summary

1. Day of correction: Lula returned 1.0pp (to 40.50%) and Flávio remained stable (28.15%), with the gap narrowing to +12.35pp, still the widest of the recent cycle.
2. No new national survey released; Vox Brasil June 5 remains as reference (+8.5pp in the first round). The agenda was "Tariflávio" as opposition liability and network data following Vorcaro's audio (from May 13).
3. The third way divergence remains wide: Caiado achieves 6.9% in Vox against 1.95% in the market, while Renan is favorite for third place (44.50%) against roughly 6% in surveys.—

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to news

• O Globo · Pre-candidates allied with Lula and Flávio modulate tone on the US to avoid exposure and defend patrons
• Estadão · Pre-campaigns of Lula and Flávio already generate four times more actions at TSE amid AI advance

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article)

• Intercept Brasil — Tariflávio: how Flávio Bolsonaro's visit to Trump became a self-goal
• Exame — Flávio Bolsonaro falls after audio with Vorcaro and Lula leads social media ranking
• CNN Brasil — Datrix: Zema jumps 56% on networks, but Flávio and Lula lead
• CNN Brasil — Quaest: see how Lula government approval stands in 10 states
• Exame — Trump could "help" Lula, but is an unpredictable variable in the election, says political scientist
• Metrópoles — Government sees Brazilian election as test for Trump in Latin America
• Folha de S.Paulo — Revision of Clean Record law generates uncertainties and strains electoral scenario in states
• Correio Braziliense — Lula opens 8-point advantage over Flávio in first round, says Vox Brasil
• Jornal de Uberaba — Lula defeats Flávio and Aécio, but ties with Caiado and Zema in second round scenarios

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 6 15:52 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).