June 7, 2026

1. Prediction market

June 7 was marked by continuity with slight correction. In the presidential market on Polymarket, Lula remained stable at 40.50% (volume USD 6.17M accumulated) and Flávio Bolsonaro returned 0.90pp, to 27.25% (volume USD 6.50M). With this, the gap between the two widened again to +13.25pp (from +12.35pp on June 6), back to the top of the recent cycle. The movement came from Flávio's side, not from a Lula increase, and there is no isolated event in the window that explains it: the reading is technical digestion after the previous day's correction.

The highlight of the day was a secondary movement. Camilo Santana, Education Minister, jumped to 3.75% in the presidential market (volume USD 3.18M), an increase of 2.60pp that took him to fourth place, ahead of Fernando Haddad, who gave up 0.15pp to 3.10% (volume USD 5.59M), and Romeu Zema, who fell 1.00pp to 2.05% (volume USD 3.49M), in the fifth consecutive day of decline. Ronaldo Caiado retreated 0.20pp, to 1.75% (volume USD 3.87M). Camilo's jump has no clear reading in the news and has relatively low volume, signs of a speculative position of low conviction that AFOS Analytics registers as a point to monitor, not as a trend.

In the placement markets, Flávio reinforced his second-place leadership in the first round, with 63.50% (volume USD 61k, increase of 1.00pp), while Renan Santos appears in second place in that same market, with 17.15%. In the third-place market, Renan is the favorite, with 45.00% (volume USD 76k, increase of 0.50pp), ahead of Zema (25.00%) and Caiado (18.00%). In the winner market, Renan rose 0.65pp and occupies third place, with 17.35% (volume USD 6.66M). These are three distinct questions: who wins, who finishes in second, and who finishes in third in the first round.

In institutional and macro contracts, the impeachment of some STF minister before 2027 remains priced at 5.15% (volume USD 80k, decrease of 0.10pp), a low level. In the Senate, the PL retreated 0.50pp, to 73.00% (volume USD 243k), maintaining its broad favoritism for largest caucus. In 2026 inflation, the modal band remains 5.00% to 5.49% (29.85%), but the sum of the 6.00% or higher ranges accounts for about half the market, a sign that the inflationary tail continues to be priced. In aggregate, the presidential market totals around USD 96.7M in accumulated volume, which reinforces that this is real money at stake, not merely a poll.

2. What the institutes recorded

There was no new national poll on June 7. The reference remains Vox Brasil from June 5 (n=2.100, protocol BR-08016/2026), which gave in the first round Lula with 42.1% and Flávio with 33.6% (gap of +8.5pp), and in the second round Lula 47.8% versus Flávio 41.3%, with Lula in technical tie with Caiado and Zema. Ingestion of the TSE registry did not bring new national surveys; the recent flow is predominantly state-level. The press treats the next round of Quaest as imminent, but the survey has not yet been published.

In poll news, a survey cited by the media indicated that Lula's age, 80 years, is not an obstacle for the majority of voters, undermining an opposition bet on the subject. The backdrop persists that market and polls remain at odds in their reading of the third way, addressed in the divergences section.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication expected between June 8 and 12. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication: institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample equal to or greater than 1,000. The registry classifies all 16 as state-level, but the scope marking comes generic in the return (all with UF=BR), and the Quaest of June 10, by sample (2.004) and by press coverage, is probably the imminent national round.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. The highest weight in the window is the Quaest of June 10 (sample 2.004, confidence 0.9), likely national round. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of effective release and figures requires verification from two primary sources before citation. If the Quaest of 10/Jun confirms as national, it will be the first national round since Vox on June 5 and may enter the Dashboard.

3. Press coverage

On the government side, Lula's campaign intensified its event agenda, prioritizing São Paulo, Rio, and Amazonas, and created a social media monitoring center, with increased litigation in this election. The dispute over Pix and the utility rate hike continues as a central axis, with political scientist Guilherme Casarões summarizing that the defense of Pix has come to be treated as a matter of sovereignty by the government base.

On the opposition side, Flávio released his first campaign jingle, framing the dispute as a "spiritual battle" against Lula. Lula's June 2 statement continued to reverberate, in which he associated Bolsonaro's children with "traitors to the nation" and mentioned the hanging of a historical traitor (the Gazeta do Povo reported that the president got the historical fact wrong, as Joaquim Silvério dos Reis was not hanged); the statement, prior to the window of this synthesis, led Flávio to announce a criminal report to the STF and resulted in PT and Bolsonaro supporters switching positions in the debate.

On institutional matters, the TCU archived a representation filed by Flávio requesting investigation into a company linked to Lula's ex-daughter-in-law, finding that there were insufficient "minimum evidence," as the request was based essentially on news articles (Estado de Minas). The company had been cited in a Federal Police investigation into education ministry resources, then headed by Camilo Santana; the court emphasized that its archival does not affect ongoing investigations. In the third-way field, Caiado criticized the credibility of the Lula government, speaking of a lack of "moral authority."

Pre-campaigns for Lula and Flávio are already securing endorsements across the eight largest electoral districts, in a coverage scenario that compares the current matchup to the historic polling records.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap between Lula and Flávio reopened to +13.25pp, with Flávio returning 0.90pp and Lula stable; Camilo Santana jumped to 3.75% and assumed fourth place, in a movement of low conviction.
2. No new national survey was released; the Vox Brasil of June 5 remains as reference (+8.5pp in the first round) and Quaest is treated as imminent. The TCU archived a representation by Flávio against Lula's ex-daughter-in-law, and the senator launched his first jingle.
3. The divergence of the third way remains the largest on the dashboard: Caiado posts 6.9% in Vox versus 1.75% in the market, while Renan is the favorite for third place (45.00%) versus around 6% in surveys.—

Sources consulted

Articles with direct news links

• Gazeta do Povo · Lula stumbles citing Bolsonaros over tariff hike and "hangs" historical figure
• InfoMoney · TCU files away Flávio Bolsonaro's representation against Lula's ex-daughter-in-law
• G1 · Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro still sew together campaign platforms in the eight largest electoral colleges in the country
• VEJA · Electoral surveys: how is the Lula vs. Flávio duel on the eve of Quaest

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article)

• Folha de S.Paulo — Petistas and bolsonaristas swap positions after Lula's speech on hanging traitors
• Estado de Minas — TCU files away Flávio Bolsonaro's request to investigate Lula's ex-daughter-in-law
• Estado de Minas — Caiado criticizes credibility of Lula government: lack of 'moral authority'
• Revista Fórum — Survey dismantles right-wing betting against Lula's age
• Exame — Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro: who is ahead in the latest polls for president
• Gazeta do Povo — Flávio launches first jingle and focuses on "spiritual battle" against Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched 07/Jun 20:02 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).