June 18, 2026

1. Prediction market

The Polymarket registered on June 18 a partial reversal of the previous day's movement. Lula remained stable at 50.50% (USD 6.53M), while Flávio Bolsonaro recovered part of the week's decline and rose to 25.95% (↑1.90pp, USD 6.71M). With this, the gap between the two narrowed to +24.55pp, below the record renewed yesterday (+26.45pp). The total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals ~USD 101.6M.

The method data from recent days reversed direction: Renan Santos gave back part of the week's gains and fell to 14.55% (↓1.20pp, USD 7.21M), still the highest accumulated volume in the presidential market. Flávio's recovery came with Renan's decline, a sign of communicating vessels in the pricing of the opposition field, with no single triggering event explaining the swap.

On the third way, the picture remains at the floor. Caiado rose slightly to 2.20% (↑0.25pp, USD 4.18M), Haddad remained stable at 1.85% (USD 5.78M), ahead of Camilo Santana (1.75%), and Zema held at 1.45% (USD 3.72M). In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio widened the lead to 69.5% (USD 63.5k); in the 3rd place market, Renan fell to 46.55% (↓7pp, USD 81.1k), followed by Caiado and Zema, both at 13%.

In other markets, STF impeach fell to 2.45% (↓1.15pp, USD 81.8k), even with the new phase of PF in the Master case, indicating that the market did not raise the priced chance of minister removal. On the Senate by number of seats, PL widened its lead to 77.5% (↑2.5pp, USD 242.9k). On annual inflation in 2026, the 5.00-5.49% band remains leader at 31.75%, now closely followed by the 5.50-5.99% band at 29.90%, with 6.00-6.49% at 22.35%.

2. What the institutes registered

No new national survey was published on June 18. The ballot backdrop remains anchored in the three nationals of June 15-16, all with Lula expanding: CNT/MDA (2º turno 49.3% × 36.8%, the largest gap in the sample), Futura/Apex (2º turno 48.1% × 42.9%) and Nexus/BTG Pactual (2º turno 49% × 43%, with government approval exceeding disapproval for the 1st time in the cycle, 48% × 47%).

The widest divergence on the dashboard remains with Renan: even after today's decline, the market prices 14.55% against the 2% measured by CNT/MDA in the 1º turno, a span of ~12.55pp. The signal to monitor is Datafolha, which publishes on June 19 and will begin testing Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa in the list of names.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at TSE with publication scheduled between June 19 and June 23. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel disclosure. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers. Two national milestones in the window: Datafolha (June 19) and Indexa (June 23).

3. What the press covered

The institutional agenda of the day was dominated by a new phase of the PF investigation into the Banco Master case. The 9th phase of Operation Compliance Zero, according to Poder360, targeted senator Jaques Wagner, leader of Lula's government in the Senate, and Augusto Ferreira Lima, former partner of Daniel Vorcaro, with 18 search and seizure warrants ordered by the STF, in Bahia, São Paulo, and the Federal District. The PF points to evidence of a relationship between Wagner's parliamentary activity and Master's interests, according to Bloomberg Línea. The senator denied any connection with the bank and said he received a call from Lula, in a report by BBC News Brasil.

The government's dynamics revolved around the political reach of the operation. According to Estadão's backstage reporting, the action splashes back on Lula, but the Planalto assesses the damage as smaller than Flávio's in the Master case, while the PT president publicly defended Wagner, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The Vorcaro case has been ongoing since March, with Vorcaro imprisoned since March 19 and the rapporteur at the STF being André Mendonça.

In the opposition camp, Flávio Bolsonaro launched a public security plan. According to Money Times, he promised to create 500,000 prison spots in four years; Pleno.News reported his defense of reducing the age of criminal responsibility and prisons modeled on Bukele's regime. In the same camp, Caiado said that Flávio "missed the chance" to defeat Lula in 2026, in remarks reported by Estado de Minas.

As an observation, the balance of Lula's participation in the G7 continued to reverberate: BBC News Brasil reported the barbs with Trump, after the American president called the Brazilian scenario politically dangerous and Lula responded, in remarks reproduced by Poder360, with the phrase "don't meddle in Brazil's elections".

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Day of partial reversal: Flávio recovered to 25.95% (↑1.90pp) and Renan returned part of the gains to 14.55% (↓1.20pp), with Lula stable at 50.50% and the gap declining to +24.55pp, below yesterday's record.
2. The Master case gained symmetry with the 9th phase of PF targeting Jaques Wagner, government leader in the Senate; the Planalto assesses less damage than Flávio's, and the market neither punished Lula nor raised institutional risk (STF impeach declined to 2.45%).
3. Without a new national survey, Renan's divergence remains the widest on the Dashboard (~12.55pp); the Datafolha of June 19, with Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa in the field, is the next ballot test.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Poder360 — PF deflagra 9ª fase da Operação Compliance Zero

• Brasil 247 — Jaques Wagner defendeu emenda que beneficiaria Banco Master, diz PFSecondary news items (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Bloomberg Línea — Jaques Wagner, ally of Lula, is target of PF in Master case

• BBC News Brasil — Jaques Wagner denies relationship with Master and says he received call from Lula

• Estadão — Behind the scenes: action against Wagner splashes on Lula, but Planalto sees smaller damage than Flávio's

• Folha de S.Paulo — PT president defends Jaques Wagner and says he trusts in his innocence

• Money Times — Flávio Bolsonaro promises to create 500 thousand prison vacancies in four years

• Pleno.News — Flávio wants to reduce age of criminal responsibility and prisons like Bukele's

• Estado de Minas — Caiado says Flávio Bolsonaro "missed the chance" to defeat Lula

• BBC News Brasil — The balance of Lula's participation in G7: barbs with Trump

• Poder360 — "Don't meddle in Brazil's elections," Lula tells Trump

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotations via AFOS proxy, fetched June 18, 19:35 BRT), TSE registry (official election research).