June 17, 2026

1. Prediction market

Day without new national polling and with market movement. On Polymarket, Lula fell to 50.50% (USD 6.51M, ↓1.00pp) and Flávio Bolsonaro declined further, to 24.05% (USD 6.68M, ↓1.30pp). As the opponent lost more, the Lula × Flávio gap widened to +26.45pp, a new cycle record. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals ~USD 101.2M, reinforcing that the scenario is traded with real money, not simulation.

The day's highlight is Renan Santos, who rose for the third time in the week, to 15.75% (USD 7.18M, ↑1.70pp), the highest accumulated volume in the presidential market. In the placement sub-market, Renan secured the favorite position for 3rd place in the 1º turno, at 53.5% (↑6pp), while Flávio remains ahead for 2nd place, at 68.5% (↓1.5pp).

The third way remained at the floor, without following Renan's movement: Caiado stable at 1.95% (USD 4.13M), Haddad fell to 1.85% (USD 5.77M, ↓0.10pp), tied with Camilo Santana (1.85%), and Zema rose slightly to 1.45% (USD 3.71M, ↑0.10pp). Tarcísio remains at 0.15% in the presidential market, a legacy anomaly with the highest accumulated volume in the book (USD 12.7M), focused on re-election in SP.

In other markets, STF impeach rose slightly to 3.60% (USD 82k, ↑0.35pp), a low level that continues pricing in a reduced chance of minister removal. In Senate by seats, PL leads by a wide margin, at 75% (↑2pp). In the 2026 inflation market, the 5.00%–5.49% band expanded its lead, to 30.90%, followed by 6.00%–6.49% (22.95%) and 5.50%–5.99% (22.35%), a distribution that continues signaling fiscal uncertainty.

2. What the institutes registered

No new national polling was published on June 17. The polling backdrop remains set by the three nationals of June 15 and 16, all with Lula expanding: the CNT/MDA showed runoff 49.3% × 36.8% (gap +12.5pp), the largest in the sample; Futura/Apex, 48.1% × 42.9%; and Nexus/BTG Pactual, 49% × 43%. In the same Nexus/BTG Pactual, government approval (48%) exceeded disapproval (47%) for the first time in the cycle.

The next marker is Datafolha, with publication scheduled for Friday, June 19, and which will begin testing Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa among third way names, according to the press. Until then, the dashboard registers only market movement, without new voting intention data.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 18 and June 24. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel disclosure. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. The only national of the period is Datafolha June 19.

3. What the press covered

In government affairs, the agenda was international. On the sidelines of the G7, Trump stated that the political situation in Brazil is "dangerous" and became confused when commenting on Bolsonaro's sons; Folha de S.Paulo and Estadão reported Lula's response, asking the American to "not meddle in Brazil's elections." Poder360 observed that the two did not greet each other in the summit's official photo.

In opposition affairs, Folha de S.Paulo reported that Flávio Bolsonaro is preparing the launch of a public security plan to try to move past the "Dark Horse" case. Friction within the opposition camp remained visible: G1 reported that Zema says he has more restrictions toward Lula than toward Flávio.

On institutional matters, a senator called for opening a CPI to investigate Banco Master and BMG, according to InfoMoney, a chapter that keeps the case as a liability for the opposition. The move adds to the case's reporting at the STF, which has been under André Mendonça's charge since February.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Without a new poll, the day was driven by the market: Lula at 50.50% and Flávio at 24.05% retreated, but the gap hit a record (+26.45pp), with ~USD 101.2M in total volume on the presidential race.
2. Renan Santos rose for the third time in the week (15.75%) and locked in the favorite position for 3rd place (53.5%), opening the largest divergence on the dashboard against polling (~13.8pp).
3. Politics remained at the external level (Trump × Lula at the G7) and behind the scenes (Flávio's security plan, Banco Master CPI request), with no new voting intention data until the Datafolha poll on June 19.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• Poder360 — Trump passes by Lula at G7 without greeting the BrazilianSecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Trump says political situation in Brazil is dangerous and becomes confused about Bolsonaros

• Estadão — At the G-7, Trump says Brazil is politically dangerous and Lula asks him not to meddle in the election

• JOTA — CNT/MDA: Lula advances, Flávio Bolsonaro retreats, and alternatives remain without space

• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro will launch a public security plan to try to turn the page after the 'Dark Horse' case

• G1 — Zema says he has more restrictions on Lula than on Flávio Bolsonaro after exchange of criticism on the right

• InfoMoney — Senator requests opening of CPI to investigate Master and BMG

• Notícias Tudo Aqui — Lula doesn't break the ceiling, and Flávio remains the strongest; Renan grows, but doesn't threaten

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 17, 17:59 BRT), TSE registry (official election surveys).