June 20, 2026

1. Prediction market

Polymarket registered on June 20 a movement against the day's poll trend. Lula remained stable at 51.50% (USD 6.57M) and Flávio Bolsonaro declined to 25.05% (USD 6.76M, ↓0.70pp), so the gap between the two reopened to +26.45pp, matching the cycle record set on June 17. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals ~USD 102.55M.

The methodological data point of the day is the divergence itself: Flávio's decline came precisely when Datafolha brought him the most competitive 2º turno among recent national polls. The market prices Lula's dominance at the top of the race well above what the poll measures in the 2º turno, with the two measuring different things (probability of winning × vote).

Renan Santos rose slightly in the winner market, to 14.35% (USD 7.27M, ↑0.20pp), the largest accumulated volume in presidential markets, and remains locked in as favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno, at 54% in the placement sub-market. The third way remained at floor: Caiado declined to 2.25% (USD 4.26M, ↓0.10pp) and Haddad rose to 2.15% (USD 5.83M, ↑0.20pp), while Zema remained stable at 1.45% (USD 3.74M) and Camilo Santana at 1.75%. In the 2nd place sub-market in the 1º turno, Flávio remains isolated in front, at 68.5% (↓1pp).

In other markets, the STF impeach remained stable at 3.60% (USD 82k), at low levels. In the Senate by number of seats, PL maintained leadership at 77.5% (USD 243k). In 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00-5.49% band remains leader at 30.0%, followed by the 5.50-5.99% band at 24.0% and 6.00-6.49% at 21.0%.

2. What the institutes registered

The poll of the day was Datafolha, published this Saturday, June 20 (n=2,004, fieldwork June 17-19, TSE protocol BR-09956/2026, 2pp margin). In the 1º turno, it showed Lula 41% × Flávio 31%, with the third way at floor: Caiado and Renan Santos at 3%, Zema and Aécio Neves at 2%, Joaquim Barbosa at 1%. In the 2º turno, Lula 47% × Flávio 43% (gap +4pp, the tightest among recent national polls), Lula 47% × Caiado 41%, and Lula 48% × Zema 39%, according to G1. Flávio's rejection (48%) is the highest in the race, ahead of Lula's (46%).

Folha's own reading is that the election already has "the face of a second round" and that Flávio has stemmed the damage from previous weeks. Datafolha joins the three national polls from June 15-16, all with Lula expanding: CNT/MDA (2º turno 49.3% × 36.8%), Futura/Apex (48.1% × 42.9%), and Nexus/BTG Pactual (49% × 43%, with government approval exceeding disapproval, 48% × 47%). The widest divergence on the dashboard remains with Renan, now at ~11.35pp (market 14.35% against Datafolha's 3% in the 1º turno).

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication forecast between June 21 and June 27. Table inclusion does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registration TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. National highlights: Indexa (June 23) and JOTA (June 25), large sample size.

3. What the press covered

The institutional agenda of the day was divided between Datafolha and the continuation of the Banco Master case regarding the government camp. After the PF operation on June 18 against Senator Jaques Wagner, the government's leader in the Senate, the crisis continued without resolution: O Globo reported a shift in Wagner's tone regarding stepping down from leadership, and the PT is preparing its own survey to measure the electoral impact of the operation.

In the government camp, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin stated that the PF has independence and that Lula will handle the case well, according to Estadão. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad commented on the operation in institutional terms, saying that "the PF is doing its job of investigating", according to G1. At the STF, the handling of the Vorcaro case continues under Minister André Mendonça, who is expected to keep the former banker at the PF due to flight risk.

In the opposition camp, Datafolha brought relative relief to Flávio Bolsonaro, with the best 2º turno in the sample and an interpretation that he has stemmed the damage (Folha). But rejection (48%) remains the highest in the race, and the split on the right persists, after Romeu Zema denied proximity to Flávio and reignited infighting within the camp. The entry of Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa into Datafolha's lineup, both at the floor (2% and 1%), confirms the fragmentation of the third-way space.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Datafolha day, and divergence: the survey was relatively favorable for Flávio (tightest runoff in the sample, 47% × 43%), but the market moved in the opposite direction, with Lula stable at 51.50% and the gap reopening at +26.45pp, tying the cycle record.
2. Datafolha confirmed the third way at floor levels (Caiado and Renan 3%, Zema and Aécio 2%, Joaquim Barbosa 1%) and Flávio's rejection (48%) as the highest in the race. Renan maintains the widest divergence on the dashboard (~11.35pp) and locked in 3rd place in the 1º turno (54%).
3. The Master case continued without resolution: Wagner changed tone about stepping down from Senate leadership and PT will measure the impact of the operation (O Globo); Alckmin said Lula will handle the case well (Estadão). Next polling tests: Indexa (June 23) and JOTA (June 25, n=6,000).

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• G1 — Datafolha 2º turno: Lula has 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 43%

• O Globo — Jaques Wagner's changing mood about government leadership

• O Globo — PT's research that will measure the impact of the operation against Jaques Wagner

• Estadão — Alckmin says PF has independence and that Lula will handle well the question about Jaques and Master

• G1 — 'PF is doing its job of investigating', says Haddad about operation against Jaques WagnerSecondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro already dispute election with appearance of 2º turno

• Portal ABC do ABC — Datafolha shows Lula with 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 31% in 1º turno

• Tribuna do Agreste — Datafolha shows 48% rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro and 46% rejection of Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 20, 14:10 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).