June 21, 2026

1. Prediction market

The Polymarket remained essentially flat on Sunday, June 21, a day without new national polling. Lula stayed stable at 51.50% (USD 6.57M) and Flávio Bolsonaro declined slightly to 24.90% (USD 6.77M, ↓0.15pp), so the gap between the two widened to +26.60pp, near the cycle record. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market stands at ~USD 102.92M.

The methodological reading for the day is stability: without new electoral data, the market merely confirmed yesterday's Datafolha, which measured a competitive 2º turno (47% × 43%), while Polymarket maintained Lula's dominance at the top of the race. Flávio's marginal decline came without any ballot event on the day.

Renan Santos stood at 14.30% (USD 7.29M, ↓0.05pp), the highest accumulated volume in the presidential race, and remains locked in as the favorite for third place in the 1º turno, at 61.5% in the third-place sub-market. The third way remained at the floor: Caiado declined to 2.00% (USD 4.29M, ↓0.25pp) and Haddad stood at 2.10% (USD 5.84M, ↓0.05pp), while Zema held at 1.40% (USD 3.79M) and Camilo Santana at 1.80%. In the second-place sub-market for the first round, Flávio remains isolated in front at 68.5%.

In other markets, the STF impeach stayed stable at 3.60% (USD 82k), at a low level. In Senate seats, PL maintained leadership at 77.5% (USD 257k). In 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00-5.49% band remains leader at 31.4%, followed by the 5.50-5.99% band at 26.0% and 6.00-6.49% at 19.0%.

2. What the institutes registered

No new national polling was registered with the TSE on Sunday, June 21. The reference remains yesterday's Datafolha, Saturday, June 20 (n=2.004, field 17-19/Jun, TSE protocol BR-09956/2026, margin 2pp), which showed in the 1º turno Lula 41% × Flávio 31%, with the third way at the floor (Caiado and Renan 3%, Zema and Aécio 2%, Joaquim Barbosa 1%), and in the 2º turno Lula 47% × Flávio 43% (gap +4pp, the tightest among recent national polls), according to G1. Flávio's rejection (48%) is the highest in the race, ahead of Lula's (46%).

A breakdown from the same Datafolha circulated on Sunday: support from Trump for a candidate is indifferent to 65% of voters, according to Poder360. Lula's approval remains around 48% (Datafolha 20/Jun, in line with Nexus/BTG Pactual 48% × 47% from 15/Jun). The widest divergence on the dashboard continues with Renan, at ~11.30pp (market 14.30% against 3% from Datafolha in the 1º turno).

📅 Polling calendar for the next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication expected between June 22 and June 28. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status registered ≠ published: confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. Week's national highlight: JOTA (Jun 25), with large sample.

3. What the press covered

With no polling on Sunday, the political focus remained on the Banco Master case involving the government camp. The Federal Police operation on June 18 against senator Jaques Wagner, the government's leader in the Senate, gained a new development: allies of the senator himself began arguing that a weakened Wagner hurts Lula's campaign platform in Bahia, according to Folha de S.Paulo, in one of the country's largest electoral constituencies. In counterpoint, Flávio's campaign expects to capitalize on the Wagner effect while Lula's minimizes it, also according to Folha de S.Paulo.

In the government camp, Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin reaffirmed that the PF has independence and that Lula will conduct the case well, according to Estadão, in line with the shift in Wagner's tone about stepping down from the leadership reported by O Globo the day before. At the STF, the reporting of the Vorcaro case remains with minister André Mendonça, who should keep the former banker at the Federal Police due to flight risk.

In the opposition camp, Sunday was marked by behind-the-scenes movements: Flávio Bolsonaro's government plan continues to come out bit by bit and the campaign asked for caution not to sound opportunistic about the Master case. Rejection (48%) remains the highest in the race, and the split on the right persists, after Romeu Zema denied proximity to Flávio in the previous days. The fragmentation of the third way, confirmed by the entry of Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa into the Datafolha lineup (both at the floor), continues as the backdrop of the anti-Lula camp.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. Sunday stable: with no new national poll and Polymarket practically flat, Lula remained at 51.50% and Flávio retreated slightly to 24.90% (↓0.15pp), so the gap widened to +26.60pp, near the cycle record. Total accumulated volume in the presidential race totals ~USD 102.92M.
2. The day's axis was political, not electoral: the PF operation advanced on Jaques Wagner and allies began to fear an effect on Lula's campaign in Bahia (Folha), while Alckmin defended PF independence (Estadão). The market held Lula at the top despite the pressure.
3. The largest divergence on the dashboard continues with Renan, locked in for 3rd place in the 1º turno (61.5%) but without a real chance of winning (~11.30pp). Next ballot tests: Indexa (June 23) and JOTA (June 25, n=6,000).

Sources consulted

Articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• G1 · Datafolha runoff: Lula has 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 43%

• Estadão · Alckmin says PF has independence and that Lula will handle well the question about Jaques and Master

• O Globo · The shift in Jaques Wagner's mood about government leadershipSecondary sources (Google News redirect URL · click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Wagner's allies argue that weakened senator undermines Lula's platform in Bahia

• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Flávio's allies expect improvement after Jaques Wagner effect; Lula's campaign downplays

• Poder360 · Trump's support for candidate is indifferent to 65% of voters, says Datafolha

• Portal ABC do ABC · Datafolha shows Lula with 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 31% in 1º turno

• Tribuna do Agreste · Datafolha points to 48% rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro and 46% rejection of Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotations via AFOS proxy, fetched June 21, 13:07 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).