July 8, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 88 days to the 1º turno, Polymarket had a day of digesting the new polling data, with little movement. Lula remained stable at 61.50% (USD 7.26M) and Flávio recovered slightly to 22.45% (USD 7.27M), narrowing the gap to +39.05pp, a decline of 0.25pp that moves him away from the edge of the record +39.55pp from July 3. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals USD 111.2M.

The highlight of the third option was Ronaldo Caiado, who rose to 1.35% (USD 4.76M) in the winner market, the largest advance in the group, though still at the floor. Renan Santos remained stable at 9.65% (USD 7.90M), below 10%, but continued with the highest individual volume in the presidential market. The other names remained at the floor: Michelle Bolsonaro 1.55% (USD 8.76M), Camilo Santana 1.25% (USD 3.82M), Zema 0.95% (USD 4.29M) and Haddad 0.85% (USD 6.13M).

In sub-markets, Flávio maintained the largest share of 2nd place in the 1º turno with 80.5% (USD 151k), ahead of Renan (11.6%). In 3rd place in the 1º turno, Renan expanded the lead to 69.0% (USD 129k), with Caiado at 10.0%. In the Senate seats market, the PL remained isolated leader with 87.5% (USD 250k), versus MDB at 11.3%.

On the institutional side, the market for impeachment of an STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 2.8% (USD 82k), at the floor, even with the Master case active and Moraes' deadline against Flávio. On 2026 inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band led with 35.40%, followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% range with 28.40%, a consensus still around 5%.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought the first national poll with new numbers since AtlasIntel on July 1. Meio/Ideia showed Lula leading all scenarios: in the 1º turno, Lula 40.4% x Flávio 32%, with Caiado at 4% and Zema at 2.5%; in the 2º turno, Lula 45% x Flávio 40% and Lula 45% x Michelle 36%. The survey heard 1,500 voters between July 3 and 6, with a margin of 2.5 points.

On the state level, Datafolha released the presidential data for São Paulo: Lula and Flávio tied with 35% each in the 1º turno, and in the 2º turno in SP Flávio appeared with 46% x Lula 43%, within the margin, with Lula leading rejection in the state (51%). This is state-level data, not included in the national dashboard.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication scheduled between July 9 and July 13. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in the period). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. The Nexus national poll on July 13 is the next national vote test.

3. What the press covered

On the opposition side, the day's narrative was mixed readings. The new Meio/Ideia poll placed Flávio behind in all national scenarios, while in São Paulo Datafolha brought relative relief, with Flávio ahead in the state 2º turno (46% x 43%). In the right-wing chess game, Estadão reported that Aécio Neves ruled out the PSDB candidacy for the Presidency, targeting 2030 and a Senate seat in Minas, which reinforces the bipolarization between Lula and Bolsonarism in the current scenario.

On the government side, congressional coordination gained a name: Camilo Santana was officially named the new PT leader in the Senate, at a moment of clashes with Alcolumbre over matters in the House.

In the Master case, focus remained on the data leak. PF indicated that the leak of Daniel Vorcaro's conversations originated in the INSS CPI, consolidating the intersection of the investigation with the parliamentary commission. The case rapporteurship at the STF continues with André Mendonça, with no new decision on the day, and the 10-day deadline given by Moraes for PF to hear Flávio on slander charges against Lula remains ongoing.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. At 88 days until the 1º turno, the first national survey with new numbers since the beginning of July came out: Meio/Ideia gave Lula leading (1T 40.4% x 32%; 2T 45% x 40%).
2. The market barely moved, in a day of digestion: Lula stable at 61.50%, Flávio recovering to 22.45% (gap recedes to +39.05pp) and Caiado in the spotlight of the third way (1.35%, USD 111.2M of total volume).
3. The magnitude divergence between market (Lula comfortable, +39pp) and surveys (2º turno of +5pp; tie in SP) remains in place, with the national Nexus/BTG Pactual forecast for July 13 as the next test.—

Consulted sources

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Correio Braziliense — Meio/Ideia poll: Lula leads scenarios for 2026 elections
• Revista Fórum — Datafolha shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in SP
• O Tempo — Aécio rules out presidency in 2026 and says PSDB project targets 2030

Secondary stories (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

• JOTA — Lula maintains lead and expands advantage in first round, shows Meio/IDEIA
• CartaCapital — The numbers of the race for the presidency in first round, according to the new Meio/Ideia
• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in SP for president
• CNN Brasil — Datafolha: in SP, Lula and Flávio tie in first and second rounds
• Pleno.News — Datafolha: Flávio has 46% and Lula 43% in second round in SP
• Pleno.News — Camilo Santana is formally sworn in as new PT leader in the Senate
• [MundoBA — PF points out that leak of Vorcaro's conversations originated in INSS Comissão Parlamentar de Inquérito](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQVGVpZFFMTFFrQjNxM255dTlmNEVjenlqRjJJdDE4XzctY1BNMmdTVHVEdzZZaUs1RWlqNWpfTnVUWDVPSjNaUkR4UUhHYTJJdGNRYmE3dzI3WUZaNnlRSmo5T2k2cjVQdlhnc2RPcFVhMjdwV0VkaUlPeXJQaW1xNnNOV2tsWFB4T1p4eHdrelAtS0daaC1Fc0E5RzR6YmlvYVZUeVpJUXVGQy1MSUUwX0FtQjFCUlNRd1E?oc=5)
• Brasil de Fato — Meio/Ideia Survey: Lula leads scenarios of first and second round against Flávio and Michelle

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 8 19:35 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).