July 7, 2026

1. Prediction market

89 days from the 1º turno, Polymarket held near the cycle peak. Lula remained stable at 61.50% (USD 7.24M) and the gap over Flávio rose slightly to +39.30pp, just 0.25pp from the record of +39.55pp on July 3. Flávio fell back to 22.20% (USD 7.25M). On a day of strong adverse news flow for the senator, the price barely moved, a momentum move rather than a reaction. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals USD 110.9M.

In the third way, Renan Santos stood at 9.70% (USD 7.89M) in the winner market, still below 10%, but expanded favoritism to 3rd place in the 1º turno, to 67.0% (USD 129k). It is the largest individual volume in the presidential market, a signal of real money concentrated on a name that polls measure at 2-4%. The others remained at floor: Michelle Bolsonaro 1.50% (USD 8.69M), Camilo Santana 1.15% (USD 3.81M), Zema 0.95% (USD 4.28M), Caiado 0.90% (USD 4.74M) and Haddad 0.85% (USD 6.13M).

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio expanded to 81.5% (USD 151k), the highest level of the cycle, reinforcing his status as Lula's certain opponent, ahead of Renan (10.5%, USD 1.03M). In the Senate market by number of seats, PL remained isolated leader with 87.5% (USD 250k), versus MDB at 11.3%, a sign of institutional reach for the party.

On the institutional side, the market for impeachment of an STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 2.8% (USD 82k), at floor level, even with the Master case active and the new PF front against Flávio. On 2026 inflation, the band from 5.00% to 5.49% led with 32.9%, followed by the range 4.50% to 4.99% with 28.4%, a consensus of controlled inflation around 5%.

2. What the institutes recorded

There was no new national presidential poll on July 7. The dashboard base follows the AtlasIntel of July 1 (1º turno Lula 46.3% x Flávio 36.6%; 2º turno 48.8% x 42.3%), the last national published, alongside Datafolha from fieldwork June 17-19 (2º turno 47% x 43%) and BTG/Nexus/BTG Pactual from June 29 (2º turno 47% x 44%, empate técnico). The national picture, therefore, did not change due to poll data, but rather due to news flow.

On the state level, Datafolha released the Senate race in São Paulo, with Marina Silva at 18%, Tebet at 16% and Ricardo Salles at 13%, a reading that matters to ticket dynamics but not to national presidential race. Gazeta do Povo published scenarios with substitutes for Flávio, a stress test of the third way should his candidacy stumble.

The next national vote test is the Gerp poll, scheduled for tomorrow.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 8 and July 12. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in period). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. State scope does not enter the national dashboard.

3. What the press covered

The day's focus was the external damage to Flávio Bolsonaro. The senator testified at a USTR hearing in the United States about the 25% tariff against Brazil, arguing that the measure would help Lula and that this is the "worst moment" to adopt it, and defended Pix as a system that also benefited American companies, according to BBC News Brasil. The Lula government repudiated his actions and cited Flávio's link to the Master case, and saw in his statement a politically and electorally motivated "tone", saying that the senator frustrated businesspeople.

On the institutional front, Minister Alexandre de Moraes ordered the Federal Police to hear Flávio within 10 days, in an investigation for alleged defamation against Lula regarding a post by the senator on X from January 03. The decision followed an opinion from the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic, and the testimony precedes the decision on whether to press charges or close the case. In parallel, in the Master case, the Federal Police identified signs of leaks of Daniel Vorcaro's dialogue recordings by the INSS Commission of Inquiry and requested records from the commission's safe deposit room.

On the government side, the machinery appeared in the fiscal account: the Executive paid a record nearly R$ 34 billion in parliamentary amendments before the electoral ban period, a sign of the political cost of sustaining its coalition in Congress.

4. Day's divergences

In summary

1. At 89 days from the 1º turno, the market held near peak: Lula stable at 61.50% and the gap at +39.30pp, 0.25pp from the record, with total volume of USD 110.9M in the presidential race.
2. It was a day of strong institutional and external flow against Flávio (hearing at the USTR, Moraes's deadline to the PF, leak in the Banco Master case), but the price barely moved, a sign of already-priced momentum.
3. Without a new national survey, the level divergence between market (Lula with a large lead) and surveys (tight 2º turno) remains in place, with the national Gerp on the way tomorrow as the next test.

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• Estado de Minas — 'Worst moment': Flávio says in USA that tariffs would help Lula
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lula government rejects Flávio Bolsonaro's actions in USA and cites link to Master case
• Agência Brasil — Moraes gives 10 days for PF to question Flávio in defamation case against Lula
• Sul21 — Moraes gives 10 days for PF to question Flávio Bolsonaro in defamation case against Lula

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• BBC News Brasil — Flávio Bolsonaro speaks for 5 minutes at hearing in the US about new tariff increase
• G1 — Moraes orders Flávio Bolsonaro to testify to the PF in investigation for slander crime against Lula
• CNN Brasil — Lula government pays nearly R$ 34 billion in amendments, record amount in election year
• Estadão — In the US, Flávio Bolsonaro cites corruption, Pix, Master, STF and gestures toward election
• Estadão — PF says it has evidence that Vorcaro's dialogue leaked in INSS CPI and wants safe room records
• Gazeta do Povo — Survey presents scenarios with substitutes to Flávio Bolsonaro
• Estadão — Marina has 18%, Tebet totals 16% and Salles registers 13% in Senate race in SP
• Terra — 2026 Elections: Gerp survey on voting intentions for Presidency will be released tomorrow

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched 07/Jul 21:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).