July 9, 2026

1. Prediction market

87 days away from the 1º turno, Polymarket had a day of realignment in the third way. Lula remained stable at 61.50% (USD 7.28M) and Flávio continued recovering, with the gap between the two around +38.5pp, still far from the edge of the +39.55pp record from July 3. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals USD 111.7M.

The major movement was in the dispute for third position. In the winner market, Renan Santos fell sharply to 8.25% (USD 7.94M), the largest individual variation of the day, a decline of 1.40pp that took him from near 10% to the lowest level in weeks. In the opposite direction, Ronaldo Caiado rose to 1.95% (USD 4.81M), the second consecutive day of gains. Jair Bolsonaro appeared at 1.85% (USD 4.97M). The others remained at the floor: Michelle Bolsonaro 1.10% (USD 8.82M), Zema 0.90% (USD 4.32M) and Haddad 0.75% (USD 6.15M).

The realignment became even clearer in the sub-market for 3rd place in the 1º turno: Renan retreated to 59.5% (USD 129k), with a decline of 9.5pp, while Caiado jumped to 18.5%, a gain of 8.5pp, bringing the two closer. In the 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio maintained the largest share with 79.5% (USD 151k). In Senate by seats, PL remained an isolated leader with 87.5% (USD 250k), versus MDB at 11.6%.

On the institutional side, the market for impeachment of STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 2.8% (USD 82k), at the floor. In 2026 inflation, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% led with 29.40%, followed by the range 4.50% to 4.99% with 28.40%, a consensus still around 5%.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

There was no new national presidential poll with figures on July 9. The press reported "a new Quaest poll", but it is re-coverage of the Genial/Quaest round from June 10 (field of June 5 to 8, 1º turno Lula 39% x Flávio 29%), which is already on the dashboard. The national base remains, therefore, the Meio/Ideia of July 8 (2º turno Lula 45% x Flávio 40%) and AtlasIntel of July 1 (2º turno 48.8% x 42.3%), with Lula ahead in all scenarios.

At the state level, a poll in Goiás showed governor Ronaldo Caiado leading at home against Lula and Flávio, a sign of regional strength that coincided with his advance in the national market in the dispute for third position.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication expected between July 11-14. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in the period). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective publication requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. The national Nexus (July 13) and 100 Cidades (July 14) are the next tests of national vote.

3. What the press covered

The center-right reorganized itself. The PSDB confirmed that Aécio Neves withdrew from the presidential race and will not have a candidate for president, with the party adopting neutrality and concentrating efforts on a project for 2030. The decision, announced by Aécio in an interview and confirmed by the PSDB leadership, reinforces the bipolarization between Lula and Bolsonarism in the current scenario.

In the opposition coalition, the situation became more complex for Flávio. The União-PP federation is considering remaining neutral in the national election, a movement that would weaken the senator's support structure. In parallel, Flávio intensified the offensive in Ceará ahead of a PL decision on support for Ciro Gomes.

From the government side, external assessment was favorable: the Eurasia risk consultancy raised to 60% the probability of Lula's reelection in 2026, a level close to Polymarket. In Congress, the government is trying to unblock agendas before recess, and the vote on ending the 6x1 work schedule may be postponed to the following week.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. 87 days from the 1º turno, the day was one of rearrangement in the third way: Renan fell sharply (8.25%, ↓1.40pp; 3rd place 59.5%, ↓9.5pp) and Caiado advanced (1.95%, ↑0.60pp; 3rd place 18.5%), with Lula stable at 61.50% and the gap around +38.5pp.
2. There was no new national poll (the "new Quaest" is re-coverage from June 10), and the center-right moved: Aécio withdrew from the presidency, the PSDB confirmed neutrality, and the União Brasil-PP federation evaluates staying neutral, weakening Flávio.
3. The magnitude divergence between market (Lula with a lead, ~+38.5pp) and polls (2º turno of +5 to +6pp) remains in place, with national Nexus/BTG Pactual (July 13) and 100 Cidades (July 14) as next tests.

Consulted Sources

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• InfoMoney — Aécio Neves leaves presidential race, and PSDB foregoes its own candidacy
• Metrópoles — Aécio withdraws from presidential race and PSDB will adopt neutrality
• Folha de S.Paulo — Aécio withdraws from presidential race, and PSDB will be without a presidential candidate

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

• Estadão — União-PP Federation considers staying neutral in national election, weakening support for Flávio
• Correio Braziliense — PP-União Federation signals neutrality and threatens opposition plans
• VEJA — 'Governor of Goiás', Caiado leads at home against Lula and Flávio, says survey
• Diário do Centro do Mundo — Eurasia raises to 60% chance of Lula's reelection in 2026
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro reinforces offensive in Ceará before PL decides on support for Ciro Gomes

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 9 20:00 BRT), TSE registry (official election surveys).