July 10, 2026

1. Prediction market

86 days from the 1º turno, the Polymarket presidential market experienced a day of partial reversal of the previous day's repositioning in the third way, with total accumulated volume reaching USD 111.9M. Lula retreated slightly to 60.50% (vol USD 7.3M), a decline of 1.00pp, and Flávio Bolsonaro ceded to 22.55% (vol USD 7.3M), a decline of 0.40pp, so the gap between the two narrowed to +37.95pp due to both falling, not by the opponent's advance. The relevant movement returned to the third way, now contrary to the previous day.

Renan Santos reversed and rose sharply to 10.05% (vol USD 8.0M), an increase of 1.80pp and the largest individual variation of the day, reversing the previous day's decline and reclaiming the lead in the third-place sub-market of the 1º turno (61.5%, vol USD 135 thousand). In the opposite direction, Ronaldo Caiado returned the gain and fell to 1.55% (vol USD 4.8M), also retreating in the third place of the 1º turno (16.0%). The back-and-forth over two days, with no single identifiable trigger, looks like repricing by momentum within the third way, not a reaction to a specific fact. Jair Bolsonaro rose to 2.95% (vol USD 5.0M), Michelle Bolsonaro remained at 1.05% (vol USD 8.8M) and Romeu Zema at 1.05% (vol USD 4.3M), while Fernando Haddad stayed at 0.75% (vol USD 6.2M).

In the 2º turno sub-market of the 1º turno, Flávio maintained a lead with 76.5% (vol USD 157 thousand), ahead of Lula (10.0%) and Renan (9.4%), reinforcing his status as a certain opponent even on a day of decline. In the institutional market, the risk of impeachment of an STF minister remained at the floor at 2.75% (vol USD 82 thousand), with no repricing despite news about the Master case.

In the Senate by number of seats, the PL remained leader with 87.5% (vol USD 251 thousand), with the MDB at 11.55% (vol USD 5 thousand), whose very low volume signals a poorly liquid quote to be read with caution. In the 2026 inflation market, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% led with 30.65% (vol USD 8 thousand), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% range (27.80%), with the consensus of 4.50% to 5.49% totaling 58.45%.

2. What the institutes registered

No new national presidential poll with numbers on July 10. The TSE aggregate remains anchored in the Meio/Ideia from July 8 (1º turno Lula 40.4% x Flávio 32%; 2º turno 45% x 40%), in AtlasIntel from July 1 (2º turno Lula 48.8% x Flávio 42.3%) and in Genial/Quaest from June 10 (2º turno 44% x 38%). The approval reading also did not change: recent in-person polls keep the government near empate técnico (Nexus/BTG Pactual Jun 29 48% x 48%; Datafolha Jun 20 48% x 49%), with AtlasIntel online marking worse (disapprove 52.3%).

The calendar points to a busy week ahead: Money Times registered that Nexus/BTG Pactual and Genial/Quaest should release new presidential rounds next week. The eventual Quaest publication will be the first Tier 1 print since the crisis in the Bolsonaro family, and a direct test for the level divergence that the dashboard has been monitoring.

📅 Polls calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between Jul 11 and Jul 17. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. No samples ≥ 3,000 in the period. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The U.S. tariff increase dominated the political agenda. Estadão assessed that Flávio's trip to Washington and his appeal about tariffs may have created a trap for the senator himself, by exposing him to the label of subordinating national interest to an external agenda. In the same debate, Ronaldo Caiado attacked Lula and Flávio at the same time, calling both of them "two sides of the same coin," a move that placed him among the most-cited presidential candidates on social media that day.

The articulation of Flávio's candidacy showed mixed signals. On one hand, PP and União Brasil are expected to remain neutral in the presidential election, frustrating the senator's rapprochement. On the other, Argentine President Javier Milei confirmed, according to CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense, that he will come to Brazil on July 25 for the launch event of Flávio's candidacy in São Paulo, with a planned stop in Brasília to meet Jair Bolsonaro. On the third path, Renan Santos hardened his tone and called Flávio a "criminal", competing for the same right-wing electorate.

In the Master case, the PF deepened its investigation into a network of dossiers linked to banker Daniel Vorcaro. According to Folha de S.Paulo and Terra, the investigation targets publicist Thiago Miranda, pointed to as responsible for preparing dossiers against Vorcaro's adversaries, among them Itaú's president Milton Maluhy Filho and O Globo columnist Malu Gaspar. The rapporteur at the STF, Justice André Mendonça, saw in the conduct "hallmarks of organized crime," according to Brasil 247. In the PT field, the party reinforced its bet on Geraldo Alckmin to boost Haddad and Lula in the interior of São Paulo following the latest Datafolha, according to O Globo.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The third way reversed yesterday's rearrangement through momentum: Renan went back up (10.05%, up 1.80pp) and reclaimed third place, while Caiado gave back the gain (1.55%, down 0.70pp), with no single identified trigger.
2. The top gave slightly, but the magnitude divergence persists: Lula 60.50% and Flávio 22.55%, gap +37.95pp, against 2º turno of +5 to +6pp in national surveys, awaiting Quaest test next week.
3. The agenda was opposition-driven, the market did not reprice: tariff hike, Milei's trip and the Vorcaro dossier network dominated coverage, but institutional risk remained at floor and the presidential gap stayed practically stable.

Sources Consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — PT reinforces bet on Alckmin to boost Haddad and Lula in the interior of São Paulo

• Folha de S.Paulo — PF conducts operation against publicist hired by Vorcaro who conducted investigation against journalist

• CNN Brasil — Milei announces trip to Brazil to support Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacysecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Estadão — With trip to Washington and appeal on tariffs, Flávio may have created a trap for himself

• Poder360 — Caiado criticizes Lula and Flávio over tariff increase: "Same old story"

• Money Times — Nexus/BTG Pactual and Genial/Quaest release presidential polls next week

• Money Times — Renan Santos calls Flávio Bolsonaro a 'criminal'

• Gazeta do Paraná — PP and União Brasil should remain neutral in presidential election and frustrate overture with Flávio

• Correio Braziliense — Milei confirms trip to Brazil to support Flávio expanding right-wing coordination

• Brasil 247 — Mendonça sees "mafia-like features" in advertiser Thiago Miranda's actions with Vorcaro

• Terra — PF targets advertiser who prepared dossiers for Vorcaro; Itaú CEO was among targets

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 10, 21:57 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).