July 11, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 85 days from the 1º turno, the Polymarket presidential market experienced a Saturday of opposition consolidation around Flávio Bolsonaro and continued momentum in the third way, with total accumulated volume reaching USD 112.1M. Lula remained stable at 60.50% (vol USD 7.3M) and Flávio regained ground at 22.95% (vol USD 7.3M), an increase of 0.40pp against the previous day, so the gap between the two stood at +37.55pp. Flávio maintained the largest share of the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno (76.5%, vol USD 158 thousand), reinforcing his status as a certain adversary.

In the third way, Renan Santos extended gains to a second day at 11.30% (vol USD 8.0M), an increase of 1.25pp, consolidating comfortable double digits in the winner market after having started at 8.25% on July 9. Renan remains leader of the sub-market for 3rd place in the 1º turno (61.5%, vol USD 135 thousand), well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado (16.0%). The two-day movement, without specific catalyst from the candidate himself, appears to be repricing driven by momentum. Ronaldo Caiado stood at 1.65% (vol USD 4.8M), Jair Bolsonaro declined to 1.60% (vol USD 5.0M), Michelle Bolsonaro at 1.05% (vol USD 8.8M), Romeu Zema at 0.95% (vol USD 4.3M) and Fernando Haddad at 0.75% (vol USD 6.2M).

In the institutional market, the risk of impeachment of a STF minister remained at floor level at 2.75% (vol USD 82 thousand), without repricing despite news about the Master case. In the Senate by number of seats, PL remained leader with 87.5% (vol USD 251 thousand), ahead of MDB (11.55%, vol USD 5 thousand), whose very low volume signals an illiquid quote to be read with caution.

In the 2026 inflation market, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% led with 34.95% (vol USD 8 thousand), followed by the range of 4.50% to 4.99% (28.40%), with the consensus of 4.50% to 5.49% summing 63.35%. The day's picture showed little price oscillation at the top and concentrated movement in the third way and opposition political coordination.

2. What the institutes recorded

There was no new national presidential survey with numbers on July 11. The TSE aggregate remains anchored in Meio/Ideia from July 8 (1º turno Lula 40.4% x Flávio 32%; 2º turno 45% x 40%), AtlasIntel from July 1 (2º turno Lula 48.8% x Flávio 42.3%) and approval consensus near Empate técnico (Nexus/BTG Pactual Jun 29 48% x 48%; Datafolha Jun 20 48% x 49%), with the AtlasIntel online marking worse (disapproves 52.3%).

The week ahead is the most loaded of the recent cycle: the three nationals registered at the TSE come out between Tuesday and Wednesday, with Quaest on July 15 as the first Tier 1 print since the crisis in the Bolsonaro family. It will be a direct test for the level divergence that the Dashboard has been monitoring, with the market giving Lula ahead by nearly 38pp and the declared ballots showing a 2º turno of +5 to +6pp.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at the TSE with publication scheduled between July 12 and July 18. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. No samples ≥ 3,000 in the period. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press coverage

The consolidation of Flávio's candidacy was the day's central focus. Jair Bolsonaro released a letter, read by Flávio, naming his son as his spokesman and candidate and calling for supporter unity amid the crisis opened with Michelle Bolsonaro. In the letter, according to O Globo, Jair spoke of "a moment to set aside differences". The gesture came after a week in which the dispute for space on the right was laid bare.

The third way reacted to the consolidation with attacks. Ronaldo Caiado said that Flávio's candidacy "is sinking" and that allies are already "jumping ship", according to Money Times, and compared him to "a Christmas turkey that Lula is raising for the 2º turno". Renan Santos, who has gained ground in the market, continues with tough rhetoric against the senator. On the tariff front, Flávio warned that China may raise the tariff on Brazilian beef to 67%, according to Poder360, while the government works with the expectation of a final chapter of negotiations in the coming days.

In the São Paulo state race, Fernando Haddad reacted to criticism from Tarcísio de Freitas against Marina Silva and Simone Tebet, classifying them as "gratuitous aggression", according to G1.

In the Master case, the repercussions of the dossier linked to Daniel Vorcaro reached the financial system. Febraban reinforced support for the Central Bank and condemned the dossier against Itaú's president, classifying it as of "extreme gravity", according to Folha. In parallel, BRB completed a year without releasing results and is approaching the deadline to resolve the crisis opened after Master's liquidation.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The opposition consolidated around Flávio: Jair's letter naming his son as spokesperson and candidate accompanied Flávio's recovery in the market (22.95%, up 0.40pp), but Caiado and Renan continued competing for the same space.
2. Renan hit double digits on his second day of gains: rose to 11.30% (up 1.25pp), cementing third-way leadership in the market, in a momentum movement that surveys (2% to 4%) do not sustain.
3. The top remained stable and divergence persists: Lula at 60.50%, gap +37.55pp, versus 2º turno of +5 to +6pp in national surveys, awaiting the Nexus test (July 13) and Quaest (July 15).

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Bolsonaro says in letter that Flávio is his spokesperson and candidate, after crisis caused by Michelle

• O Globo — In letter read by Flávio, Bolsonaro reinforces support for his son: time to set aside differences

• Folha de S.Paulo — Febraban reinforces support for Central Bank and condemns Vorcaro's dossier against Itaú CEO, extremely seriousSecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• CartaCapital — In letter, Bolsonaro says Flávio is his 'spokesperson'

• Poder360 — Read the full text of Bolsonaro's letter read by Flávio

• Money Times — Caiado says Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy is 'sinking'

• BPMoney — Caiado says Flávio's candidacy is 'sinking' and that allies are already 'jumping ship'

• Poder360 — China may raise tariff on Brazilian beef to 67%, says Flávio

• G1 — Haddad calls Tarcísio's criticism of Marina and Tebet 'gratuitous aggression against two women'

• CartaCapital — Milei says he will come to Brazil for launch of Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 11, 16:25 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).