1. Prediction market

The presidential market moved in line with the day's poll: Lula rose to 61.50% (↑1.00pp, USD 7.39M), back at the top of the two-week range. After four days of stagnation while three polls pointed to narrowing, the price moved on the day when the most reliable national poll reopened the gap. The spread over Flávio stood at +36.25pp.

Flávio Bolsonaro rose slightly to 25.25% (↑0.45pp, USD 7.40M) and remained a comfortable leader in the sub-market for second place in the first round, at 83.00% (USD 180 thousand). The winner price did not retreat, despite the day's poll being the weakest of the week for him.

The largest move of the day was a decline, and it was in the third option. Renan Santos fell to 8.50% (↓1.65pp, USD 8.10M), the largest individual variation in the presidential race, and retreated in the third place in the first round to 69.00% (↓2.00pp, USD 140 thousand). The double-digit price that had survived weeks of weak polls gave way when a stronger one came. Ronaldo Caiado stood at 1.35% (USD 4.92M) and Romeu Zema at 0.75% (USD 4.38M).

In the tail of the same winner market, Michelle Bolsonaro was at 1.25% (USD 9.00M), Jair Bolsonaro at 1.05% (USD 5.11M), and Fernando Haddad at 1.05% (USD 6.22M), none with relevant movement. The total accumulated volume in the presidential race totals USD 113.1M.

In institutional markets, stability. The impeachment contract for STF minister remains at the floor, at 2.80% (USD 82 thousand), with no reaction to the letter's friction. In the Senate by seats, PL leads with 84.50% (USD 250 thousand). In the 2026 inflation market, the 4.50% to 5.49% bands concentrate the bulk of probability, with the tail of 7% or more at the floor.

2. What the polls recorded

Genial/Quaest published on July 15 the most awaited national poll of the week, and it inverted the reading of the previous days. Sample of 2,004 voters, field of July 10 to 13, face-to-face interviews, margin of 2 points, protocol BR-07181/2026. In the 2º turno, Lula 45% × Flávio 37%, an advantage of eight points, the largest of July (G1). In the 1º turno, Lula 40% × Flávio 28%, a difference of twelve points, with Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3%, and Zema 2% (CNN Brasil).

The weight of Quaest lies in the sequence it breaks. In the previous days, three national polls pointed to narrowing: Gerp of July 8 had Flávio ahead in the runoff, BTG/Nexus of July 13 showed Empate técnico (47% × 44%), and Futura/Apex of July 14 showed nearly perfect tie (46.3% × 46.1%). Quaest, the most reliable poll in the sample, went in the opposite direction and reopened the gap. Two additional data points reinforce the picture for Lula: Flávio's rejection is the highest in the race, at 57%, against 50% for Lula (Poder360), and government approval improved to 48% against 47% disapproval, tying with disapproval among independents (Estadão). Quaest points, for the first time, to a chance of Lula's victory already in the 1º turno (VEJA).

📅 Poll calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 16 and July 22. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, as institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
July 16	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-00059/2026	0.7
July 16	Instituto de Pesquisas Perfil	1,800	state	BR-04803/2026	0.6
July 16	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	BR-05880/2026	0.8
July 16	ECM Edição, Comunicação e Marketing	1,500	state	BR-06236/2026	0.6
July 16	J J Coelho	1,011	state	BR-05408/2026	0.6
July 17	Veritá	1,525	state	BR-07834/2026	0.6
July 17	F. Façanha de Almeida	1,006	state	BR-06994/2026	0.6
July 18	Instituto de Pesquisas Perfil	1,800	state	BR-03819/2026	0.6
July 19	Instituto Piauiense de Opinião Pública	1,137	state	BR-09330/2026	0.6
July 20	Instituto Data Census Potiguar	2,000	state	BR-01168/2026	0.7
July 20	Parla Mentors	1,500	state	BR-01318/2026	0.6
July 20	Eva Francieli de Souza Pereira	1,200	state	BR-05182/2026	0.6

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000, and none in the window reaches that size. PoderData on July 16 is the only national poll scheduled. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press coverage

The reaction of Flávio Bolsonaro to the survey dominated the day. He criticized Quaest and ironically suggested that the people are happy with Lula (Estado de Minas) and, on the economic front, held the president responsible for U.S. interest rates, calling the PT the "Tariff Party" (Gazeta do Povo). He also launched a plan to try to break through female resistance, the flank where he loses the most (CartaCapital). Allies assess that he needs to recover ground among the non-Bolsonaro right and among independents (G1).

The institutional front had a new development. The letter from Jair Bolsonaro, read by Flávio on July 11 and which prompted the 90-day suspension of visits decided by Moraes on July 13, became the object of two moves on July 15. Minister Alexandre de Moraes asked the Attorney General's office to comment on the letter and on possible early election propaganda (CartaCapital), and Jair Bolsonaro contradicted his own son, telling Moraes, through his defense, that the letter was read without his authorization (O Globo, with the case context detailed by BBC News Brasil via O Povo). On the same front, the STF tends to rule in the government's favor and block the explosive agenda approved by the Senate, in a fiscal relief (Folha de S.Paulo).

In the state races, both camps organized Senate slates: Flávio announced Carlos Portinho in Rio de Janeiro (Estadão) and Lula chose Cid Gomes in Ceará (Pleno.News). Ronaldo Caiado remained active, defending Damares and criticizing the tariffs from the United States, European Union, and China (Correio Braziliense).

4. Divergences of the day

Market × research, the convergence: for days this Daily recorded a market that ignored tie polls. On July 15 both sides pointed in the same direction. The Genial/Quaest gave Lula ahead by eight points in the 2º turno, and the Polymarket raised Lula to 61.50%. The divergence did not disappear, it shifted axis: it stopped being directional and became one of magnitude. 61.50% implicit probability is still too much for an eight-point advantage 81 days before the ballot.

Renan's correction, and the thesis working: for weeks the market priced Renan Santos in double digits while no national poll measured him above 4%. On July 15, facing stronger data, the price gave way 1.65pp to 8.50%, in the direction of what the ballot declares, where he appears at 3%, behind Caiado (4%). It was not research beating the market. It was the market, facing credible information, adjusting the conviction that polls did not support.

Research × research: Quaest did not confirm the tightening of the three previous nationals. The range of the July 2º turno now goes from a tie of 0.2 point (Futura/Apex) to an eight-point advantage (Quaest), the largest dispersion among institutes of the cycle. The next data point, PoderData on July 16, will determine which of the two readings the week will settle on.

In summary

The best poll reopened the margin. The Genial/Quaest (n=2.004, BR-07181/2026) gave 2º turno Lula 45% × Flávio 37% and 1º turno 40% × 28%, breaking the sequence of three nationals that pointed to tightening, with Flávio at the highest rejection in the race (57%).
The market moved together, and corrected the distortion. In the Polymarket, Lula rose to 61.50% and Renan Santos fell 1.65pp to 8.50%, the largest movement of the day, in the direction that the ballot declares. It was the directional divergence closing.
The divergence that remains is one of magnitude. 61.50% probability against an eight-point advantage is still a large distance, and the PoderData of July 16 is the immediate test to confirm or deny Quaest.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 15 16:58 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).

July 15, 2026