July 14, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market closed the fifth consecutive day with Lula at 60.50% (USD 7.34M), exactly the same figure as July 9. He did not move with the Gerp from July 8, did not move with the BTG/Nexus from July 13, and did not move with the Futura/Apex from July 14. Three consecutive national polls pointing to tightening in the 2º turno, and zero cents of price reaction.

Flávio Bolsonaro was the one who moved: he rose to 24.85% (↑1.00pp, USD 7.38M), the only relevant variation in the presidential race on the day. With this the gap over him fell to +35.65pp (↓1.00pp), the tightest in two weeks. The distinction matters: the gap narrowed because Flávio rose, not because Lula gave ground. He also expanded his favoritism in the sub-market for second place of first round, to 84.50% (↑1.00pp, USD 180 thousand).

In the third way, Renan Santos rose slightly to 10.15% (↑0.10pp, USD 8.09M, the largest individual volume among living contenders) and expanded the third place of first round to 71.00% (↑0.50pp, USD 140 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado fell to 1.35% (↓0.10pp, USD 4.86M) and Romeu Zema stayed at 0.85% (USD 4.35M).

The most curious movement was in family succession, and it went backward. In the same market as winner, Michelle Bolsonaro gave back the jump from July 13 and fell to 1.85% (↓0.40pp, USD 8.96M), while Jair Bolsonaro fell by half, from 1.05% to 0.55%. The market repriced the hypothesis on July 13, after Moraes' decision, and unwound the bet in 24 hours. It was a reaction, not a trend. The total accumulated volume in the presidential race totals USD 112.8M.

In the institutional races, nothing. The impeachment contract for STF minister remains pinned to the floor at 2.75% (USD 82 thousand), for the second day, even with Flávio intensifying attacks on the Court. In the Senate by seats, PL remains leader with 86.50% (USD 251 thousand). In the 2026 inflation market, the bands of 4.50% to 5.49% sum 62.40% (5.00-5.49% at 35.75%; 4.50-4.99% at 26.65%), with the tail of 7% or more at the floor, at 3.60%.

2. What the institutes recorded

Futura/Apex (Futura Inteligência) published on July 14 the second national of the week, and it is the hardest data of the cycle so far. Sample of 2,000 voters, field from July 7 to 11, margin of 2.2 points, telephone interviews, universe of the Brazilian electorate aged 16 or older, protocol BR-07294/2026. In the 2º turno, Lula 46.3% × Flávio 46.1%: two tenths of a point, the tightest Empate técnico ever measured in this election (Exame, Gazeta do Povo, Jovem Pan). In the 1º turno stimulated, Lula 40.1% × Flávio 36.8%, with confidence intervals overlapping. In the third way, Caiado 5.0%, Zema 3.7% and Renan Santos 2.6%.

The weight of this poll lies in the sequence, not in the isolated number. On July 12, in incorporating the Gerp of July 08, the mandatory caveat was to treat it as an institute of smaller size and known outlier. On July 13 the BTG/Nexus pointed in the same direction, coming from the first rank. Now Futura/Apex brings the runoff to near perfect tie. The caveat is over: three institutes, three methodologies, one direction. The range of the 2º turno today goes from a 3pp loss (Gerp) to a 6.5pp win (AtlasIntel from July 1), passing through two ties.

A less cited number deserves attention. Futura/Apex inverts the order of the third way in relation to the market: Zema (3.7%) appears ahead of Renan Santos (2.6%). In the Polymarket, Zema is worth 0.85% and Renan is worth 10.15%.

📅 Poll calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 15–21. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because institutes may delay or cancel disclosure. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000, and none in the window reaches that size. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. Press Coverage

The TSE became the main focus, and the subject is the instrument itself. On July 14, Justice Kássio Nunes Marques presented, in a meeting with directors from 19 institutes, a proposal for an accuracy seal for research companies: the distinction would be awarded after the 2º turno and would evaluate only surveys from the seven days prior to the election and exit polls actually released, excluding companies sanctioned for serious irregularities. The meeting was called after he suspended, in June, an AtlasIntel survey on suspicion of voter manipulation. The institutes have until July 17 to submit contributions, and the sector reacted: experts noted that surveys measure voting intent at a given moment and do not function as ballot box forecasts (JOTA).

In the opposition camp, the fallout from the July 13 decision dominated. After the 90-day suspension of his visits to Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio changed strategy and intensified attacks on the STF, seeking to reinforce the persecution framing three months before the election (O Globo). Romeu Zema classified the decision as political persecution (O Globo). In an interview with O Globo, Vice-President Hamilton Mourão said that Flávio's campaign is turbulent and that he needs to account for the Dark Horse, while also criticizing the wing linked to Eduardo Bolsonaro and Paulo Figueiredo. The statement is from a single source and is reproduced here as such.

Ronaldo Caiado raised the tone to establish himself as an alternative to Flávio (CNN Brasil), and the timing is consistent with what Futura/Apex measures: he is the best of the third way at the ballot box in the second consecutive survey. On the government side, Lula secured endorsements in 25 states and the Federal District, with local sacrifices, while Flávio faces resistance in the same movement (JOTA).

A market outlet registered, on the same day, the question that this Daily has been asking for a week: why the market no longer reacts to electoral polls (Money Times).

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The caveat is over. The tightening of the 2º turno went from a small and outlier institute (Gerp, July 8) to a first-tier one (BTG/Nexus, July 13) and now to near-perfect parity (Futura/Apex, 46.3% × 46.1%). Three institutes, three methodologies, one direction.
2. The market did not react to any of the three. On the Polymarket, Lula remains at 60.50%, the same number from July 9. The gap fell to +35.65pp, but due to Flávio's gains, not Lula's loss. Sustaining that conviction against three consecutive data points is, in itself, a position.
3. The next test is immediate. The Quaest (n=2,004) comes out on July 15 and the PoderData (n=2,400) on July 16. If they confirm, the market will be pricing 60.50% against five institutes.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo - Flávio changes strategy after ban on visits to Bolsonaro and broadens attacks on STF to reinforce tone of electoral persecution
• O Globo - Zema classifies as 'political persecution' Moraes' decision that suspended Flávio's visits to Bolsonaro
• O Globo - Mourão says Flávio needs to account for Dark Horse and criticizes bolsonarist wing

Secondary news items (Google News redirect URL - click to resolve to article):

• Exame - Futura/Apex Poll: Lula has 46.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 46.1%, in the runoff
• Gazeta do Povo - What the new Futura Inteligência electoral poll for president shows
• Jovem Pan - Futura/Apex poll points to technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in eventual second round
• JOTA - TSE seal for electoral poll generates divergence among institutes
• CNN Brasil - 2026 Elections: Caiado raises the stakes to become an alternative to Flávio Bolsonaro
• JOTA - Lula closes campaign rallies in 25 states and DF with 'sacrifices'; Flávio Bolsonaro faces resistance
• Money Times - Is history repeating itself? Why the market is no longer shaken by electoral polls

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 14, 14:36 BRT), TSE registration (official election polls).