1. Prediction market

At 70 days from the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals approximately USD 115.95M (Polymarket via AFOS proxy, capture from July 26, 2:12pm BRT approved by a double reading 8 minutes apart, plus a third check reading, and re-checked at 4:42pm with no change in the presidential race). Lula did not move: he stayed at 62.50% (USD 7.65M), the same value he closed at on July 25 and the top of the entire AFOS series. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.80pp, to 23.65% (USD 7.67M), and Renan Santos fell exactly 0.80pp, to 9.55% (USD 8.53M).

The detail is in the symmetry. Two names in the same camp traded the same amount of price between them while the front-runner did not move a hundredth. That describes a dispute within a camp, not a transfer between camps, and it is different from saying the opposition advanced. The gap between Lula and Flávio pulled back to +38.85pp, off the peak of +39.65pp recorded on July 25. The top of the series lasted one session, and this synthesis records that as clearly as it recorded the peak.

In the chasing pack, the day was one of across-the-board declines, with no exception (Polymarket). Ronaldo Caiado fell 0.15pp, to 1.75% (USD 5.14M), on the very day he was formalized as a candidate. Jair Bolsonaro fell to 1.05% (USD 5.24M) and Michelle Bolsonaro, who is not a declared pre-candidate, fell 0.40pp to 0.75% (USD 9.26M), dropping out of the 1% range she had crossed the day before. Romeu Zema eased to 0.65% (USD 4.53M) and Fernando Haddad gave back in full the rise of July 25, falling 0.30pp to 0.35% (USD 6.36M). Tarcísio de Freitas stayed at 0.15% (USD 13.63M), holding the largest individual volume in the book, a legacy anomaly that measures traded history and not current conviction.

In the sub-markets, the movement reinforced the consolidation reading. In first-round second place, Flávio rose 1.50pp, to 78.00% (USD 207 thousand), with Renan at 11.85% (USD 1.07M). In third place, Renan gave up 1.50pp, to 64.50% (USD 157 thousand), and Caiado gave up 0.50pp, to 15.50% (USD 36 thousand), in a book of USD 476 thousand. In the Senate seats market, the PL swung between 70.00% and 69.00% (USD 258 thousand) within the capture window itself, a move of 1.00pp in thirteen minutes in a book adding up to USD 292 thousand; that instability is, in itself, the argument for not building a reading on this market. The market on the impeachment of a STF justice before 2027 fell 0.10pp, to 3.40% (USD 83 thousand), the third session effectively flat. In the 2026 inflation market, the modal band remains 5.00% to 5.49%, at 39.20% (USD 9 thousand), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band at 26.20%, in a book of USD 77 thousand, a centre of distribution that remains above the target ceiling.

2. What the pollsters registered

No national poll was published on July 26. The Datafolha released on the evening of July 24 remains the heaviest read in the set: 40% for Lula and 32% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, 48% to 43% in the head-to-head runoff, n=2,004, fieldwork July 22 to 24, a 2pp margin and filing BR-01166/2026 with the TSE. A reference to a "new PoderData poll" circulated on July 26; checking the filing and the institute's own aggregator shows it is the round released on July 16, with n=2,400 and fieldwork July 12 to 15, already incorporated into this panel. It is not a new measurement.

The absence of new polling matters because the weekend had two campaign events and a diplomatic incident, and none of them was measured. According to the public TSE register, the first poll with fieldwork entirely after the PL convention only arrives the following week, and that is precisely when the market's current level goes into testing.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between July 27 and August 2. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each filing links to the public TSE database.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE filing	Conf.
Jul 27	Nexus Pesquisa	2,000	national	BR-01489/2026	0.7
Jul 28	AtlasIntel 🔥	5,000	national	BR-08602/2026	0.9
Jul 30	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-07845/2026	0.7
Jul 31	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-01084/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE register via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. The window holds 31 filings with sample ≥ 1,000; the table shows the 4 with national scope, and the other 27, nearly all state-level with samples between 1,000 and 2,700, were left out for legibility and not for lack of a filing. Three of those four have fieldwork open on July 26. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before any figure is cited.

3. What the press covered

The political fact of July 26 was the national convention at which the PSD formalized Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate, with the party's chairman, Gilberto Kassab, as running mate, on a ticket built entirely within the party (G1, Times Brasil). According to Brasil 247, it is the first time the PSD contests the presidency with its own candidate since the party was founded. For Caiado, it is his second attempt, 37 years after the first.

In his first speech as a candidate, he aimed at both front-runners at once, saying that Lula provokes Trump and that Flávio attacks public authorities, and sharpened his criticism of both. CartaCapital recorded the contrast between the formalization and the polling numbers: 4% in the Datafolha of July 24. He also rejected the possibility of the United States questioning Brazilian elections.

The second axis is diplomatic and escalated in three stages from the PL convention of July 25. After Javier Milei called Alexandre de Moraes "bald garbage" from the platform, the president of the STF, Edson Fachin, replied that the remark is incompatible with civility between countries. Next, the American government denied any intention of "undermining" elections in Brazil, responding to Itamaraty's visa refusal. And on July 26 the Brazilian government summoned its ambassador in Argentina for consultations, a step also recorded by Estadão. The ambassador is Julio Bitelli, and Itamaraty confirmed the summons, a step that in diplomatic practice ranks among the most severe formal protests between States.

On the third-way front, R7 recorded the strategies of Zema and Caiado to break through the polarization. And Diário 360 published the assessment that the PT sees Renan Santos as a direct threat to Flávio Bolsonaro, not to Lula. That is a backroom reading, not a verifiable fact, and it enters here as framing that circulated on the same day the price moved in that direction, without this synthesis asserting any relation between the two.

4. Divergences of the day

Calendar × price: the chasing pack had its fullest day of scheduled events and its worst price performance. A candidate was formally launched and every name in the group retreated in the same session, including Caiado himself, who also lost half a point in the third place market. The money that left the pack and Renan Santos showed up concentrated in a single name.

Launch × market, second occurrence: on July 25 the PL formalized Flávio and his price fell 0.10pp; on July 26 the PSD formalized Caiado and his price fell 0.15pp. Two occurrences do not make a pattern, the books are small and the capture is from a single instant, so this synthesis records the repetition and does not assert a cause. Worth tracking across the conventions running through August 5.

Movement × direction: the largest rise of the day was Flávio's, but it has an exact counterpart in Renan Santos' fall and it happens with Lula motionless. There was no advance on the front-runner, there was a choice of name within the same camp.

Institutional × price: within 48 hours a foreign head of state attacked a STF justice by name from a Brazilian platform, the president of the Court replied in public and an ambassador was summoned for consultations. The market on the impeachment of a justice stood at 3.40%, effectively flat for the third session, in a book of USD 83 thousand that supports no narrative.

In summary

The market did not change its mind about who wins and spent July 26 deciding who loses better: Lula flat at 62.50%, with all the movement between the second and third placed names.
The PSD formalized Caiado with Kassab, the party's first own presidential candidacy, and his price fell in the same session. It is the second time in a row that a launch ends this way.
No new polling tested any of that. Four national surveys have publication declared between July 27 and July 31, three of them with fieldwork open on July 26.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 26, 2:12pm BRT, approved by a double reading 8 minutes apart plus a third check reading, re-checked at 4:42pm), TSE register (official electoral polls).

July 26, 2026